Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 They'll get wet. Might not be jackpot, but they'll get rain eventually.So far it's behaving as depicted. I don't agree at all. The heaviest rains were supposed to be over the Berks in E NY who haven't had much. Evrything shifted around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 I thought it was supposed to rain through like 00z.... is this already sort of done in HPN-BDR area? Also, looks like not much has happened so far in the Berkshires over towards the ALB area (like literally nothing). ALB with one hour of 0.06" and that's it for QPF when models had 1-2" there, lol. There will be big storms around later. probably firing around ALB as sun comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 We're really going to have to watch this afternoon as the warm front drapes the CT/Ma border The coastline is starting to clear but I see N and NW movement of showers off LI so yea....aftn could feature some severe cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 I don't agree at all. The heaviest rains were supposed to be over the Berks in E NY who haven't had much. Evrything shifted around Completely and violently disagree. First, look at radar. Second, go back to my posts about the two maxes we will have regarding QPF. I posted about it yesterday, you tend to ignore my correct posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Models clearly showed that E Mass would miss most of this today lol this was yesterday afternoon's 18z WRF... pretty much wrong in a lot of areas so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 lol this was yesterday afternoon's 18z WRF... pretty much wrong in a lot of areas so far. WRF.jpg Models were awful on this. They had LI and CT being the screw zone with big rains over the cape and E NY..Just a complete miss lol..Tends to happen with tropically infused systems I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 There's actually a good secondary max right now in the Berks with a developing band of very heavy rain...sometimes I don't even think you look at a radar Kevin, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 lol this was yesterday afternoon's 18z WRF... pretty much wrong in a lot of areas so far. WRF.jpg Terrible lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 There's actually a good secondary max right now in the Berks with a developing band of very heavy rain...sometimes I don't even think you look at a radar Kevin, lol. That's all i do lol. Not nearly what was depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 Models clearly showed that E Mass would miss most of this todayI disagree. I don't think this area was supposed to see as little as it has so far.Seems like overall, performance has not been good on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Berks still get pounded, nice rotating band up that way ongoing as the low starts swinging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 There's actually a good secondary max right now in the Berks with a developing band of very heavy rain...sometimes I don't even think you look at a radar Kevin, lol. Yeah--it's moved in here. 20 minutes after I had told my wife she'd be good for a run because I didn't think we'd get that much. I guess I should have looked at the radar--I hadn't done so in two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Completely and violently disagree. First, look at radar. Second, go back to my posts about the two maxes we will have regarding QPF. I posted about it yesterday, you tend to ignore my correct posts. I'm not trying to get into the SNE debates.... but this was pretty awfully handled by models in ALB-BTV warning areas so far, IMO. Those like 2-4" amounts in the Adirondacks and eastern NY are turning into 0.1-0.3" type stuff. All of VT was supposed to get some heavy rain last night, and its a giant radar hole with 0.1" or less at the ASOS BTV/MPV/MVL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 That's all i do lol. Not nearly what was depicted If you are trying to demand accuracy from the 18z WRF in a mesoscale rainfall event...you are in the wrong hobby. Euro actually did pretty decent...though verbatim it didn't show those huge 5"+ jacpots, but the global models rarely do. You try and extrapolate where the best axis of rain will setup based on the historical precedent for such a synoptic setup. Obviously trying to nail it down within 10-20 miles is going to be pretty tough because you have to be accurate with the convergence zone in the low levels...which is probably tougher in the summer than in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 I disagree. I don't think this area was supposed to see as little as it has so far. Seems like overall, performance has not been good on this one Agreed. These convective ,tropical deals never do. Hopefully you guys in E MA who haven't had any will get some later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 That's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 ride um cowboys, heavy heavy rips, constant battering, lots of erosion going on. http://www.turnto10.com/category/281625/ocean-house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 If you are trying to demand accuracy from the 18z WRF in a mesoscale rainfall event...you are in the wrong hobby. Euro actually did pretty decent...though verbatim it didn't show those huge 5"+ jacpots, but the global models rarely do. You try and extrapolate where the best axis of rain will setup based on the historical precedent for such a synoptic setup. Obviously trying to nail it down within 10-20 miles is going to be pretty tough because you have to be accurate with the convergence zone in the low levels...which is probably tougher in the summer than in winter. Per SOP, the SREFS continue to be absolutely useless too, lol. They should just stop running this model. Not even remotely close in NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 That's impressive. isp.jpg RECORD NEW YORK STATE 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION BROKEN AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT TODAY... A PRELIMINARY NEW YORK STATE 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION RECORD WAS BROKEN AT ISLIP LONG ISLAND TODAY. TOTAL 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AT ISLIP AS OF 9:30 AM WAS 13.26 INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6 INCHES AT TANNERSVILLE NY ON AUGUST 27-28 2011 DURING HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM IRENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 PF you should take a ride to SW RI shore, awesome day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 I'm not trying to get into the SNE debates.... but this was pretty awfully handled by models in ALB-BTV warning areas so far, IMO. Those like 2-4" amounts in the Adirondacks and eastern NY are turning into 0.1-0.3" type stuff. All of VT was supposed to get some heavy rain last night, and its a giant radar hole with 0.1" or less at the ASOS BTV/MPV/MVL. Well the models will never get the specifics right on a tropical heavy rain event in the summer. Too much convection and lack of good baroclinicity will cause havoc on model QPF..esp globals. However, I made a couple of comments yesterday about the two QPF max thing and referenced the RGEM. I even said we will see this waver around a bit, but I still like that idea. One out west and the other somewhere in the east..maybe ORH-BOS down I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 2.55 here at work, 3+ at home per in house spotter network( and shes is cooking a huge pot roast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Well the models will never get the specifics right on a tropical heavy rain event in the summer. Too much convection and lack of good baroclinicity will cause havoc on model QPF..esp globals. However, I made several comments yesterday about the two QPF max thing and referenced the RGEM. I even said we will see this waver around a bit, but I still like that idea. One out west and the other somewhere in the east..maybe ORH-BOS down I-95. Yeah, I guess I was looking at this more like a synoptic rain and figured it would be a more widespread heavy rain event if that makes sense. What appears to have happened is all the moisture came out of the sky on Long Island and CT and must've choked off the stuff that was supposed to be in ALB CWA's and more into the interior in general. ALB sort of hints at this in their Hydro discussion from early this morning: HOWEVER...AN AREA OF TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR THAT WAS OVER LONG ISLAND AS OF 400 AM...WILL LIKELY PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE REDUCED IF THIS AREA OF TORRENTIAL RAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH EARLY THIS MORNING TO DROP ANY PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...BUT IF THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE...THEN PORTIONS OR ALL OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. I guess I've just been surprised so far in the interior, where the globals and meso-models were hammering eastern NY up through the Adirondacks. I do think VT will still see heavy rain rotate up, especially eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 ride um cowboys, heavy heavy rips, constant battering, lots of erosion going on. http://www.turnto10.com/category/281625/ocean-house I think I can see Taylor looking up and wondering if the sun will come out later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Per SOP, the SREFS continue to be absolutely useless too, lol. They should just stop running this model. Not even remotely close in NY State. Untitled.jpg Yeah that's a brutal forecast. I don't think I'd ever use the SREFs though in this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walpole Joe Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Agreed. These convective ,tropical deals never do. Hopefully you guys in E MA who haven't had any will get some later I live in E Mass and have received more than .60 of rain. There is a difference between E Mass and SE Mass, you can't broad brush the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Yeah that's a brutal forecast. I don't think I'd ever use the SREFs though in this type of setup. What type of set-up would you use them? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Yeah, I guess I was looking at this more like a synoptic rain and figured it would be a more widespread heavy rain event if that makes sense. What appears to have happened is all the moisture came out of the sky on Long Island and CT and must've choked off the stuff that was supposed to be in ALB CWA's and more into the interior in general. ALB sort of hints at this in their Hydro discussion from early this morning: HOWEVER...AN AREA OF TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR THAT WAS OVER LONG ISLAND AS OF 400 AM...WILL LIKELY PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE REDUCED IF THIS AREA OF TORRENTIAL RAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH EARLY THIS MORNING TO DROP ANY PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...BUT IF THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE...THEN PORTIONS OR ALL OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. I guess I've just been surprised so far in the interior, where the globals and meso-models were hammering eastern NY up through the Adirondacks. I do think VT will still see heavy rain rotate up, especially eastern sections. Yeah the moisture robbed may have something to do with it, but radar is lit up down in NW CT and the Berks..they are playing catch up. It's also important not to overstate the upslope component too. Sure we'll have SE winds, but you really want unimpeded flow into the mtns to get it...not some conv blob to the southeast robbing moisture. My approach to these events are usually just to try and see if models show a pattern, and then what makes sense in your head based on past experience. My experience is that we normally have a two QPF max area...one with a separate conv/deformation/upslope area and then one near the WF/cstlfront area where low level forcing is maximized. I never take the approach of running away with model QPF totals verbatim...but analyzing all the meso models we have, can give an idea. It won't always be right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 What type of set-up would you use them? lol I used to use them all the time in the winter...esp if the event was a SWFE. They seemed to do well on those typical moderate QPF type setups dominated by synoptics with perhaps just a few mesoscale maxes due to ML fronto, etc. They even did well on thermal profiles at times. I remember they really did well in the Dec 2008 icestorm. Though they've struggled so much ever since they ditched the ETA/RSM members. I'm not really sure what the advantage of the AWR/NMM members have...obviously higher resolution, but that doesn't mean anything if the forecasts are worse. I think for convection it really helps, but if it comes at the expense of synoptics, then I find the tradeoff to be harmful as a tool for operational forecasting. Maybe in convective setups they are better...unfortunately for us in New England, that doesn't really help for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Models were awful on this. They had LI and CT being the screw zone with big rains over the cape and E NY..Just a complete miss lol..Tends to happen with tropically infused systems I guess Those who used meteorology would have focused on the warm front over Long Island and coastal areas for heavy rain potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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