Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 I just have strong doubts of a nor'easter in mid August. There's a reason they don't really happen . We'll see how this plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 I just have strong doubts of a nor'easter in mid August. There's a reason they don't really happen . We'll see how this plays out It's not like 58 and NE winds. Just gusty east winds as modeled. Canadian is more of a NYC/cstl CT look. Euro op temps are rather chilly in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 It's not like 58 and NE winds. Just gusty east winds as modeled. Canadian is more of a NYC/cstl CT look. Euro op temps are rather chilly in the interior.This reeks of one of those winter deals where we all get pumped in SNE on a couple of good runs that crush us after they started out bad and then the last 2 days we watch them pile 2 feet on the picnic tables as they revert back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 This reeks of one of those winter deals where we all get pumped in SNE on a couple of good runs that crush us after they started out bad and then the last 2 days we watch them pile 2 feet on the picnic tables as they revert back Summer synoptics are very fickle. Convection can screw up low placements. However, we have a strong negatively tilted trough, another closed low near NewFoundland, and a 1024 high east of Maine. That normally does not happen in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Summer synoptics are very fickle. Convection can screw up low placements. However, we have a strong negatively tilted trough, another closed low near NewFoundland, and a 1024 high east of Maine. That normally does not happen in August.Well then congrats on 2-4 inches of rain and then a TOR right ahead of warm fropa. Enjoy ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Well then congrats on 2-4 inches of rain and then a TOR right ahead of warm fropa. Enjoy ! Would be nice, but probably not..lol. I'm just happy to get rain which for some reason has been like pulling teeth this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Not what one expects from GYX discussion in early-mid August. CYCLOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY TAKE SHAPE ALONG/OVER LONG ISLAND NEW YORK EARLY ON THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION. POCKETS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS MORE COOL AIR. THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT BECOMES ALIGNED WITH WINDS ALOFT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WELL...BRINGING BRISK...FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. ANY WARMING TREND WILL BE SLOW TO TAKE SHAPE. TIDES: ASTRO TIDES ARE ALREADY RUNNING VERY HIGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR NUISSANCE AND ISOLATED FLOODING. Of course, I need to be in the Aroostook woods midweek. Echoes of last year in late July when we spent two days in cold rain north of Moosehead, walking thru doghair seedling-sapling stands checking for snowshoe hare habitat. After the first two minutes, you don't get any wetter. (Or as anoted forestry professor told us, "There's no such thing as inclement weather, just improper clothing.") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 BOX all over it SEVERE POTENTIAL...PERCEIVE A POTENTIAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEARENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS SOME CHARACTERISTICS OFTHE SOUTHERN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM FOR TORNADOOCCURRENCE. LOOKS TO BE A LOW CAPE HIGH SHEARENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES DEPICT AN AREA OF 1000+ J/KGSBCAPE INSPITE OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LOT OF CLOUDINESS. THELEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BE A BIGPLAYER BUT EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE JET COULD VARY IN ONE DIRECTIONOR ANOTHER. THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THE PATTERN AND FORECASTERSYNOPTIC RECOGNITION ARE FLAGS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATEDSEVERE...INCLUDING POSSIBLY EVEN A SHORT TRACK TORNADO OR TWOSOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. REALIZE THATCONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS GOING TO BE VERY LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Yep, with low confidence. No reason to hype a brief spin up 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 The drumbeats growing louder and louder for a torch later this month..Just as we really don't want the heat. Can't win this summer CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 9m Euro ensemble mean continues theme of pattern shift later this month. East coast ridge…late season heat wave? pic.twitter.com/0ncWHVR6Pq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Meh, been in the models for awhile. It's still Aug. Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Meh, been in the models for awhile. It's still Aug. Who cares. That will take us well into Sept..ugh..no gradient pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 That will take us well into Sept..ugh..no gradient pattern That is a gradient pattern..it's pretty chilly in srn Canada north of the Plains. Gradient patterns like this can happen..it doesn't have to mean cold weather here. I don't understand why we are pumping up the tires for this torch Sept talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 The drumbeats growing louder and louder for a torch later this month..Just as we really don't want the heat. Can't win this summer CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 9m Euro ensemble mean continues theme of pattern shift later this month. East coast ridge…late season heat wave? pic.twitter.com/0ncWHVR6Pq Yeah I haven't been using the Euro ensemble mean in my own modulations for the time frame in question, because ...heh, I can't. But the Americans are not nearly as bullish from what I can tell. the NAO stays modestly negative; caveat emptor as to whether that is E or W based. Also ... juggling seasonally reduced R-wave spacing into that fray makes it real dubious what that would mean for the 70-90W by 35-50N box of toys. It really looks like a hodgepodge of meandering, weak beta-scaled S/Ws at the present and with similar NAO mean out in time, probably wise not to count on that tele for much signal support. Meanwhile, the PNA's rather a-climatic correlation on the pattern going on, with +PNA actually meaning an amplified +PNAP during July and August this summer ... not supposed to but ... it's currently ludicrously positive and showing. It is, however, slated to really fall to about -.25 from a beginning point of +2 or even +3SDs. That's a downward correction of possibly over 3 SDs, and so long as it is correlating on the flow so be it; it may just portent the best support for raising eastern heights out of all. It is interesting that the Euro ensemble mean is attempting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 That will take us well into Sept..ugh..no gradient patternLooks like a gradient pattern, just a little bit northwest of here is where the cooler air would be. And we'd be the warm side of the zonal flow gradient.But then again I never know what gradient patter means because inevitably there is a gradient somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Why the fuk does anyone lament warmth in September. Jesus H does everything have to be winter or summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Why the fuk does anyone lament warmth in September. Jesus H does everything have to be winter or summer? Extremes or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Looks like a gradient pattern, just a little bit northwest of here is where the cooler air would be. And we'd be the warm side of the zonal flow gradient. But then again I never know what gradient patter means because inevitably there is a gradient somewhere. Technically true, but when we describe one, it's usually a typical winter pattern with some sort of bitter cold pressing down into the Great Plains with a SE ridge providing warmer temps across the SE US. So yes there is a gradient, but a rather enhanced one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Technically true, but when we describe one, it's usually a typical winter pattern with some sort of bitter cold pressing down into the Great Plains with a SE ridge providing warmer temps across the SE US. So yes there is a gradient, but a rather enhanced one. Yeah that makes sense. I think most associate a gradient pattern as a cooler pattern or favorable pattern in the winter....unless the gradient is in southern Canada, lol (some may just call that a torch haha). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Why the fuk does anyone lament warmth in September. Jesus H does everything have to be winter or summer? Lack of patience in the seasonal transformation from summer to winter or vice versa. It's more just what some want doesn't coincide with our climate. Like September is far closer to a summer month than a winter one. Just like in the spring when climo is closer to winter than summer but some are looking for deep deep summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Yeah that makes sense. I think most associate a gradient pattern as a cooler pattern or favorable pattern in the winter....unless the gradient is in southern Canada, lol (some may just call that a torch haha). Yeah it's just one of those understood kind of patterns that feature those two phenomenon. It's not like there is a specific domain, although it could vary a few hundred miles either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Hmmm, gonna' be in Falmouth for 9 days, would love to have stellar weather bookending a mid-week Nor'Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Why the fuk does anyone lament warmth in September. Jesus H does everything have to be winter or summer? So violent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 So violent You're up way past your bed time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 My hottest day of the year will invariably be the night of Open House Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 My daughter starts high school 8/26. Summer is short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 My daughter starts high school 8/26. Summer is short. Not if it continues all through September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 10, 2014 Author Share Posted August 10, 2014 Acadia is a beautiful place. Just returned home. Sand beach was awesome. Cadillac mountain was awesome ( parts of the road had me a bit squeamish, being afraid of heights) Thunder hole was very unique. Took a carraige tour, which was very informative and a good way to take stuff in. Some cool nights sleeping in the tent. Wind was howling last night, and it was chilly. Leaves are all colored in swampy areas, which is cool too see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Meh as far as the heat talk goes. 1) we're talking about late August/September, so any heat is short-lived. 2) you can have AN temps then that are so much more tolerable than mid/late July. ORH ave high in late July near 80. By Sept 1, it's down to 73.5. Was planning a mid-week trip to Maine. We'll see..... Hopefully we'll keep the sun today--had a lot of clouds at the Pit yesterday afternoon. 63.7/56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Coc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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