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12/20 06z Models


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  On 12/20/2010 at 10:35 AM, showmethesnow said:

Stebo,

What are your thoughts on the off runs of the GFS. Heard some mets say they have gotten better while others say they are still crap and only good for looking at possible trends. Too many years of looking at them myself so I am biased to them being crap.

I tend to use them within 84 hours to see if they point out a trend. They aren't crap but they are close to being crap as you can get.

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  On 12/20/2010 at 10:43 AM, Stebo48858 said:

I tend to use them within 84 hours to see if they point out a trend. They aren't crap but they are close to being crap as you can get.

Thanks for the reply. Don't think I will ever trust them myself even if they do improve them.

Guess that just shows my age and stubbornness. :whistle:

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  On 12/20/2010 at 11:07 AM, showmethesnow said:

For those who live and die for each model run in the extended time frame. This is a good example why you shouldn't. This is the potential New Years day storm on the GFS. First one is yesterdays 06Z and the second is todays 06Z. Looks a little different. :whistle:

Didn't realize I had posted the 00Z 12/19 instead of the 06 12/19 for the comparison.

Here was what I referring to about the consistency in the long range.

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  On 12/20/2010 at 2:31 PM, ptb127 said:

6z GFS has no big deal for many areas...

Not surprising. Models will waffle from run to run since we're so far out. Even if they waffle, it's good to analyze the overall trend over the last 24 hours to see how they are behaving...in other words..what kind of solution are they converging on.

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