Weathergun Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Timing and cloud debris are our big issues for severe wx. This morning's threat with the warm front is disjointed. With one disturbance triggering some strong t-storms off SNJ coast. Another disturbance over Upstate NY with more t-storms. In between, we are probably not going to see much. After this all moves through, we might see more sun later afternoon. But we'll have to see if we have a decent trigger for t-storms late afternoon in the area. Right now, models don't show much. Better synoptic forcing doesn't arrive until late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 So Where Did The Rain go?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 If you want severe storms and a light show tonight then this is the better chance . Clearer skies will work there way East and possibly destabilize us enough that if a round does develop tonight it doesn't get robbed by what was originally forecasted this morning . Upton . ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA...THERE COULD BE SEVERALHOURS OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE AREA.EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS WHICH WILL DETERMINE THEAMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE ANDSTRENGTHENING SFC LOW APPROACHES FOR THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OFSHRA/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FORA MORE SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER EVENT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL AGAIN BEMODERATE...APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WITH 0-1KM SHEAR BETWEEN15-20 KTS AND INCREASING HELICITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THERE ISSOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE...BUT THISAPPEARS TO BE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ROTATING STORMS. SPC HASPLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH A 5 PERCENT CHANCEFOR TORNADOES IN NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND A 2 PERCENT CHCELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL HAVE ABOUTTHE SAME CHANCE OF OCCURRING...OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREASWHERE THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 12z NAM continues to look impressive for tomorrow morning. here is another example of the model being misleading indicating a severe potential that did not verify. We have seen this time and time again this summer. Don't rely on the models in a severe event ! This mornings severe threat is over for the metro - time to watch the satellite and radar. The sat is showing some clearing to our west - now we have to wait and see how unstable we get and this triggers a potential severe outbreak later http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-vis-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 here is another example of the model being misleading indicating a severe potential that did not verify. We have seen this time and time again this summer. Don't rely on the models in a severe event ! This mornings severe threat is over for the metro - time to watch the satellite and radar. The sat is showing some clearing to our west - now we have to wait and see how unstable we get and this triggers a potential severe outbreak later http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-vis-12 Think it'll be very late tonight if storms make it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Looks like a great summer beach day...enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Looks like a great summer beach day...enjoy! Sure if you don't mind clouds and wet sand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 not every frontal passage has severe weather with it especially this area...I ended up with a few sprinkles while it looks like the fish's are getting pounded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Looks like a great summer beach day...enjoy! Maybe for the bahamas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Getting some sun now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Sure if you don't mind clouds and wet sand I dont mind it! Considering im going fishing at 1:30 today and staying out till around 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 maybe the lack of moisture and current breaks of clouds will yield to better result later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Some breaks in the clouds here, going to have to see if things clear out even further over the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Just goes to show how poor day 2 model forecasts for convection can be around here as it should clear up and go into the 80's. I guess nowcasting for convection is the best way to go in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Just goes to show how poor day 2 model forecasts for convection can be around here as it should clear up and go into the 80's. I guess nowcasting for convection is the best way to go in our region. temp8.gif NJ_Penn.vis.gif I agree. This is the RAP model for later tonight. Not sure how much you can count on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Starting to clear up out to the west. Let's get that pot to simmer for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Currently 83/DP 68/RH 61%, pretty steamy and sticky out there that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Sun starting to break out here, that should hopefully destabilize the atmoshere even further this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Sun starting to break out here, that should hopefully destabilize the atmoshere even further this afternoon. with the cold front still out in the Ohio Valley - won't be till late this evening or overnight till any line of storms that eventually develops reach here - question that is with the loss of daytime heating how strong will any storms be when they get close to the coast ? http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=USDC0001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 with the cold front still out in the Ohio Valley - won't be till late this evening or overnight till any line of storms that eventually develops reach here - question that is with the loss of daytime heating how strong will any storms be when they get close to the coast ? http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=USDC0001 I think you answered your own question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Sunny and humid right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Sure if you don't mind clouds and wet sand He is right. Today is a really nice day for the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Timing may come back to haunt us yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWxWatcher201 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Storms firing over W PA now. Lets see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWxWatcher201 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Massive tornado watch , covering western PA for now. Expect that to head east throughout today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Thunderstorm just popped near Albany and Troy,NY. Already severe t-storm warned. Producing nickel-sized hail so far: 0321 PM HAIL BOGHT CORNERS 42.78N 73.74W07/27/2014 M0.88 INCH ALBANY NY TRAINED SPOTTERNICKEL SIZE HAIL LASTED 3 TO 6 MINUTES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Supercell just popped near Albany and Troy,NY. Already severe t-storm warned. Funny how this morning's activity didn't ruin their chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 The 17Z HRRR had a pretty good handle on the storms in eastern Ohio, if only a touch slow. Weakens them after about 02Z-03Z as they cross eastern PA, then shows them re-firing around 07Z-08Z as they approach NYC. Been there done that before. Long midnight shift ahead?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Upton saying just isolated storms this afternoon then they say potential for a severe weather event tonight. With possible rotating storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I have a great view off of my building's roof deck (elevation ~400ft) in uptown manahattan. The conditions look beautiful for severe - all the cumulus are getting tilted strongly by westerly shear while we have a south wind and temps in the mid/upper 80s. Fingers crossed for this one - it rarely looks this promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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