EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I can never understand these days. They have 30% and are like if the sun comes out it could be worse. Suns out, threat goes down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Who knows man, I'm glad I didn't trek down to WVa though. Most of MD and NoVA is sunny now correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I can never understand these days. They have 30% and are like if the sun comes out it could be worse. Suns out, threat goes down? Sun didn't come out in E KY/WV hence the moderate goes away. As to why the mid Atlantic was left out, I honestly think it's a typo/they forgot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 4km NAM had our temps in the low 90s, currently 83f and mostly cloudy. SRN PA if a few degrees warmer where the sun is out. Don't think we will make NAM temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Still a pretty strong bulls eye despite the fact SPC dropped the moderate risk. 75 is about as bad as that SREF index ever gets over Beckley WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 4km NAM had our temps in the low 90s, currently 83f and mostly cloudy. SRN PA if a few degrees warmer where the sun is out. Don't think we will make NAM temps though. Current VIS really doesn't reflect mostly cloudy skies in Frederick right now. Most people north of Rt 50 are probably have mostly sunny skies right now. Certainly the case here in Western AA Co. The overnight/early morning convection really fooked the Eastern KY/WV area. Just kept building and building and clouds never had a chance to clear out. It shows very well on the 16 and 24 frame vis loops. Areas in KY closer to the TN border are probably a better target right now for a tor threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Radar indicated tornado in Kentucky- http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 My GREarth mesoanalysis is showing a pocket of 3K+ SBCAPE in SPA and N MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Fairly sunny here, looking at wxbug cams even areas closer to the 2nd batch of clouds have partial clearing/filtered sunshine. That's all that's necessary for sufficient CAPE at this point, from my perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Looks like most areas that have gotten into the good sun are ranging low to mid 80s right now and continuing to climb. I see an 88 ob in Baltimore as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 85/68 at BWI last hour. Winds SW at 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 My GREarth mesoanalysis is showing a pocket of 3K+ SBCAPE in SPA and N MD. Really? I guess the SPC Mesoscale Analysis isn't updating, because it's showing 1000-1500 CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Sun didn't come out in E KY/WV hence the moderate goes away. As to why the mid Atlantic was left out, I honestly think it's a typo/they forgot. Was talking about why our 30% wind went away here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Really? I guess the SPC Mesoscale Analysis isn't updating, because it's showing 1000-1500 CAPE. I believe it's overestimating at this time - the same mesoanalysis has widespread upper 80s low 90s temps in the area and that is not the case. SPC is probably safer to go by. Also the MLCAPE parameter is much lower as usual on that same feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Looks like the NAM/local WRF are more bullish than HRRR for storms this evening..though HRRR never seems to be too gung-ho about that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Was talking about why our 30% wind went away here. Maybe they're worried about the 2nd shortwave/MCS delivering debris clouds? Or that along with a some of the mesoscale modeling (HRRR/RAP) which for now aren't overly impressive. The wind-field is essentially the same as yesterday, save maybe a slight slowing of the shortwave we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I believe it's overestimating at this time - the same mesoanalysis has widespread upper 80s low 90s temps in the area and that is not the case. SPC is probably safer to go by. Also the MLCAPE parameter is much lower as usual on that same feed. No, I think the 3000 is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Maybe they're worried about the 2nd shortwave/MCS delivering debris clouds? Or that along with some of the mesoscale modeling (HRRR/RAP) which for now aren't overly impressive. The HRRR sucks. Who uses that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 2000 near DC. 2500 NMD, pockets of 3K southern pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Lol at the HRRR. It doesn't even get precip. south of the MD/PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Lol at the HRRR. It doesn't even get precip. south of the MD/PA border. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 The HRRR sucks. Who uses that? Obviously it's just one tool of many, but it verified pretty darn well last winter and during some of the early season suckfests around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Obviously it's just one tool of many, but it verified pretty darn well last winter and during some of the early season suckfests around these parts. It doesn't even have the storms in northern Ohio right now modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I got up around 9:30, sunny here the whole time. Currently 85/72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I got up around 9:30, sunny here the whole time. Currently 85/72. 85/72 here as well according to my station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Getting some clouds now but decent sunshine in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 88/69 here. Sun & clouds mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Still a pretty strong bulls eye despite the fact SPC dropped the moderate risk. 75 is about as bad as that SREF index ever gets over Beckley WV. Something to point out is that despite the removal of the moderate risk, they didn't lower the tornado probs (still 10% hatched). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Something to point out is that despite the removal of the moderate risk, they didn't lower the tornado probs (still 10% hatched). Yeah they just axed the 45% wind probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 80/73 here in SW VA. Not bad for already having rain this morning. Some small breaks in the clouds showing up, but still mostly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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