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7/27 Severe Threat Discussion and Obs


Kmlwx

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I can never understand these days. They have 30% and are like if the sun comes out it could be worse. Suns out, threat goes down?

Sun didn't come out in E KY/WV hence the moderate goes away.

As to why the mid Atlantic was left out, I honestly think it's a typo/they forgot.

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4km NAM had our temps in the low 90s, currently 83f and mostly cloudy. SRN PA if a few degrees warmer where the sun is out.  Don't think we will make NAM temps though.

Current VIS really doesn't reflect mostly cloudy skies in Frederick right now. Most people north of Rt 50 are probably have mostly sunny skies right now. Certainly the case here in Western AA Co. 

 

The overnight/early morning convection really fooked the Eastern KY/WV area. Just kept building and building and clouds never had a chance to clear out. It shows very well on the 16 and 24 frame vis loops. Areas in KY closer to the TN border are probably a better target right now for a tor threat. 

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Really? I guess the SPC Mesoscale Analysis isn't updating, because it's showing 1000-1500 CAPE.

I believe it's overestimating at this time - the same mesoanalysis has widespread upper 80s low 90s temps in the area and that is not the case. SPC is probably safer to go by. 

Also the MLCAPE parameter is much lower as usual on that same feed. 

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Was talking about why our 30% wind went away here.

Maybe they're worried about the 2nd shortwave/MCS delivering debris clouds? Or that along with a some of the mesoscale modeling (HRRR/RAP) which for now aren't overly impressive.

The wind-field is essentially the same as yesterday, save maybe a slight slowing of the shortwave we need.

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SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif

 

Still a pretty strong bulls eye despite the fact SPC dropped the moderate risk.  75 is about as bad as that SREF index ever gets over Beckley WV.

 

 

 

Something to point out is that despite the removal of the moderate risk, they didn't lower the tornado probs (still 10% hatched).

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