T. August Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 12z 4 km NAM is showing 3000-4000 SB CAPE from DC to southern PA by 6:00 PM. The Sun is helping us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 12z 4 km NAM is showing 3000-4000 SB CAPE from DC to southern PA by 6:00 PM. The Sun is helping us... If that verifies...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Looking at visible sat loop - looks like areas closer to and to the south of DC won't get as much clearing. Definitely some breaks showing up in WV/VA but it seems it won't completely clear out like areas in N MD and PA have. Let's say south of a line running from like Garrett Co to Winchester to Leesburg to Baltimore...south of there still looks relatively cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 stuff will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 12z sounding from LWX - kind of hope they do an afternoon sounding to assess instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Cloudy here but see sharp clearing line just north, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Cloudy here but see sharp clearing line just north, There's a little finger of clouds sticking out from the main mass it seems. It runs from like Bel Air, MD SW into VA. Lots of clouds streaming in from the west now too. I'm still optimistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 It has been sunny here since I woke up around 8. Getting juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 How does Ocean City, MD look? Mostly Cloudy here after some drizzle this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 When the sun came out here the uncomfortable factor increased dramatically. Juicy! Good link to sat http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/recentvis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Full sun now in New Windsor, Carroll County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Visible sat and SBCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Muggy. 82/71 breeze from the nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 From the updated morning AFD from LWX (issued at 10:06 AM): PER THE 12Z IADRAOB...CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2K-2.5K J/KG BY THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 42KTS AND 0-1KM OF 17 KTSARE OBSERVED IN THE SOUNDING RAOB. THIS SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORABLEFOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Can see blue to the north. 75.4 and muggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Not a cloud in the sky to the W or NW. It's been 75% sunny all morning, but now entering full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Suns out, guns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Clear line def shifting south or clouds breaking down. Now almost overhead. #sunobs Now we just won't have convection till 9p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 nearly almost mostly sunny here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Hi res nam ramped up this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 95% Blue Sky, 5% Clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 The magical sun orb! I can see it! Waiting for the 12z GFS soundings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Any idea if we get a special sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Stuff will happen. Sun is out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 12z GFS soundings for 00z (8pm) tonight at IAD and DCA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Thats a weird looking 30% hail and wind area on the 1630 SPC OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 That outlook sucks for us locally. Also our specific area is never really mentioned in the various area parts of the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 That outlook sucks for us locally. Also our specific area is never really mentioned in the various area parts of the discussion. When outlooks suck, we get rocked. Derecho day for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 When outlooks suck, we get rocked. Derecho day for example. lol Derechos are not easy to forecast by any means. I'd like to see you do better. IIRC, many people in this forum were doubting it would make it over the Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. A ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KY AND WESTERN WV HAVE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY OF A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE MDT RISK AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES/HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS REGION. A STRONG PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. RATHER STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. THE MOST FOCUSED AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER PARTS OF KY/OH/WV. ...KY/OH/WV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KY INTO WESTERN WV. THIS REGION OF CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY 12Z NAM INITIALIZATION OR ANY MESOSCALE MODELS THAT USE THAT INPUT. THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS CAN DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER DEPICTED IN A MDT RISK. DUE TO INCREASING DOUBT...HAVE REMOVED THE 45 PERCENT WIND AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED OTHER ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION. AT 15Z...THE PRIMARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING STORMS EXTENDS FROM WEST-CENTRAL KY TO SOUTH JKL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. BOWING SEGMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF VA AND NORTHERN NC. ...LOWER MI/OH/PA... STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF OH INTO WESTERN PA...WHERE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES...WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART/ROGERS.. 07/27/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1632Z (12:32PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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