Hoosier Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Another SREF run where best params are south of us. But look at this map for sigtor ingredients - not very often you see something like this... I posted these maps in the Lakes/OV subforum And then there's this. Tornadoes from July 15-31 since 1950. Greatest concentration of activity is farther north than tomorrow's greatest threat area. I wonder how much of the activity in the south and east coast is related to tropical systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 GFS like around 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Remember that it's "modeled" CAPE tho - doesn't mean it'll pan out. Losing battle to hope for a threat in that time period. Our derecho night was a big exception with a ton of CAPE that had yet to be reduced by later in the evening. We are dealing with much lower CAPE numbers here. Gotta try to get it earlier or it'll probably be a pretty marginal threat even with good shear in place. I don't understand the fretting over timing. 1) November, 2010: Tornado thru Baltimore/major Squall thru DC between 11pm-1am..high shear/little cape. 2) May(?), 2014: Tornado in western VA at 3AM, little cape 3) June, 2014: 8pm-2am: Major storms in E/NE MD producing golfball sized hail/75mph winds...ok cape, modest shear 4) June, 2012: Who needs to know, 9pm-1am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I completely agree. The earlier in the evening the better. I'm still concerned about getting enough breaks in the clouds for good CAPE to build, but I think someone gets something good tomorrow. Something is going to break our way eventually, right? 2yr cycle, man. 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I don't understand the fretting over timing. 1) November, 2010: Tornado thru Baltimore/major Squall thru DC between 11pm-1am..high shear/little cape. 2) May(?), 2014: Tornado in western VA at 3AM, little cape 3) June, 2014: 8pm-2am: Major storms in E/NE MD producing golfball sized hail/75mph winds...ok cape, modest shear 4) June, 2012: Who needs to know, 9pm-1am... big cape, fast upper level jet 5.) April 27, 2011 -- 33 mile EF2 at 2:30AM in W VA... 7 other EF0/EF1 tors between 1am and 6am -- http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/events/svrwx_20110427_28/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 oh hai GFS.. you rang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 GFS likes the 0Z timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 oh hai GFS.. you rang? SKT_GFS__KIAD00zrun7-27.png Damn you! lol. DCA pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 GFS is pretty decent. Had solid shear fairly early prob convects to some degree around 21z maybe a bit earlier. Not a huge signal till around 0z but global. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 WE CAN DO THIS. That sounding looks pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 DCA decent at 00z SUN (8pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Good thing is we know the nam sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 New Day 1 in ~2 hrs should be interesting... will they keep mod in WV/OH or expand it east some? Will we see mod risk ourselves in the 1300z/1630z OTLK IF GFS is right? I will go with 5/15/30 at the 0600z with SLGT... but talk of mod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 New Day 1 in ~2 hrs should be interesting... will they keep mod in WV/OH or expand it east some? Will we see mod risk ourselves in the 1300z/1630z OTLK IF GFS is right? I will go with 5/15/30 at the 0600z with SLGT... but talk of mod Tor/Hail/Wind 5/15/30 sounds like a good guess. Don't think local areas will get a mod on the 6z...but would not be shocked to see it I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I don't understand the fretting over timing. 1) November, 2010: Tornado thru Baltimore/major Squall thru DC between 11pm-1am..high shear/little cape. 2) May(?), 2014: Tornado in western VA at 3AM, little cape 3) June, 2014: 8pm-2am: Major storms in E/NE MD producing golfball sized hail/75mph winds...ok cape, modest shear 4) June, 2012: Who needs to know, 9pm-1am.. You can cherry pick most things to make a point that it's not terrible but you should probably toss out events that are outliers at the least. This is no derecho setup for one. In a majority of cases the boundary layer will decouple within an hour or two after sunset. If you already have sfc based supercells or a big line it's not necessarily the hugest issue but you get the sense that some might expect big stuff to develop at 9 p.m. and rage at 2 a.m. which in many cases is unlikely. If nothing else you will trend toward more elevated convection in many cases. But yeah, anything can happen. There was a tornado at 8am near the ocean the other day. Given the strong shear here it could overcome at night.. but who wants a tornado at night anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Tor/Hail/Wind 5/15/30 sounds like a good guess. Don't think local areas will get a mod on the 6z...but would not be shocked to see it I guess. I agree with you, I think if they expanded the mod it wouldn't be until the following update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 I agree with you, I think if they expanded the mod it wouldn't be until the following update And I'm not at all sold that they will. This could very easily end up being a higher end slight potential for us - throw in some hatching and it might cover the threat just fine. But I'll let the SPC guys do their jobs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I posted these maps in the Lakes/OV subforum And then there's this. Tornadoes from July 15-31 since 1950. Greatest concentration of activity is farther north than tomorrow's greatest threat area. I wonder how much of the activity in the south and east coast is related to tropical systems? Untitled.png Think SREF is probably at least a bit too far south with its bullseye. Though you do have to wonder how much the WV hole is due to lack of reporting over time. I mean, mtns are generally less conducive of course but still. Some in the SE may be tropical sys but I'd imagine a majority isn't. Climo def more in line with the SPC outlook area overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 And I'm not at all sold that they will. This could very easily end up being a higher end slight potential for us - throw in some hatching and it might cover the threat just fine. But I'll let the SPC guys do their jobs! Vort timing may be off a little still for a mod east of the apps.. either way they seemingly would need to wait to see the players on the field around here at least. I kinda wonder if the mod risk zone will end up lining more than anything anyway. Winds are kinda uniderectional in the mod risk area. Sure there will be local backing and it's great shear .. may be an enhanced zone nearer the sfc low but in general I like sfc wind direction around here better than out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 This made me excited till I saw it was 4z. Maybe it's off on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Dc split, i give it a 100% Chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I hope that the GFS is right... NAM was ok.... It made me think of this though -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I'd favor the GFS over the NAM. The NAM has been awful lately.. or maybe forever and we're just now seeing it more since other models are getting better. HRRR has some showers around early but still gets decent CAPE going by early PM esp over the SPC 30% region from earlier. It also appears to be starting to go at 2p to the southwest... not sold on a late show that's for sure. Tho if we do deal with crap into the day we might want it to be somewhat late. I am not sure I see any reason for them to go much about 5% in the mod risk for tor with 45% wind. Know they mentioned strong tor risk in that zone but it's prob going to be heavily dependent on local backing from what I can see. I guess right around the low center might get a 10%? This area is probably as good a play for that as any.. plus slightly better terrain. I could see somewhere east of the Apps go 10% too depending on how it looks in the am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 We usually do best when we have no clue what will happen so we have that going for us. I noticed that best tornado chances and severe often are north of parameters in these situations, closer to the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 From Sterling. "ALL SEVERE HAZARD TYPES POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGEHAIL...FLASH FLOODING AND ALSO ISOLATED TORANDOES." What is isolated Torandoes? I am scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I'd favor the GFS over the NAM. The NAM has been awful lately.. or maybe forever and we're just now seeing it more since other models are getting better. HRRR has some showers around early but still gets decent CAPE going by early PM esp over the SPC 30% region from earlier. It also appears to be starting to go at 2p to the southwest... not sold on a late show that's for sure. Tho if we do deal with crap into the day we might want it to be somewhat late. I am not sure I see any reason for them to go much about 5% in the mod risk for tor with 45% wind. Know they mentioned strong tor risk in that zone but it's prob going to be heavily dependent on local backing from what I can see. I guess right around the low center might get a 10%? This area is probably as good a play for that as any.. plus slightly better terrain. I could see somewhere east of the Apps go 10% too depending on how it looks in the am. hrrr_cape_ma_16.png I completely agree, I really think it will come down to whatever leftover convection/debris we have tomorrow morning. Looks promising to me though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I completely agree, I really think it will come down to whatever leftover convection/debris we have tomorrow morning. Looks promising to me though Ya besides the clouds in eastern Ohio pushing southeast, it is clear back there. That stuff is racing SE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Quick clearing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Updated: 30% Wind, 5% Tor, 15% Hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Updated: 30% Wind, 5% Tor, 15% Hail 30% hail is near. Think if clouds clear fast we go up to MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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