NoVaWx Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Thread needs a NSFW tag now.Baltimore is getting screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 You have to look at more than instability parameters. Location of the low level jet and best upper divergence occurs in Ohio and WV. Look at the upward vertical velocity and relative vorticity at 850, 700, and 500 mb.. It all comes together aloft over the moderate risk area. MDT area looks fine, meant the 30% going more north into PA. Either way, should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Ohio is lightning up with cells. Could be overnight activity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 LWX going all in... disco good and warns people to keep tabs on weather AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC308 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TOTRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL CROSS THEREGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGINGCOOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED FURTHER OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ASFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A TIGHT DEWPTGRADIENT PERSISTS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HASMOVED OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS FORMED ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING SHOWERS TODAY.THESE SHOWERS HAVE INTENSIFIED AS THEY ENTERED AN AREA OF HIGHERINSTABILITY AND MOVED ACROSS WARM WATERS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THEDEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT THE REMAINING LOOKOUT AREA MOSTLYSUNNY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S.WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONTAPPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF DETERIORATINGCONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. SCTSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS LATETONIGHT AS WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION. REMNANTS OF SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A MCS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATETONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ANDASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE EVOLUTION. THERE AREDIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS MCS AT THISTIME BUT ALL SOLUTIONS SHOW A FEATURE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIOVALLEY AND REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAYMORNING. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTOTHE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND TRACK EASTWARD.INSTABILITY WILL LOW SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHEAR WILL BE INCREASINGAND AT THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. THISMCS/SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAYAFTERNOON AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN THECLOUDS. DESTABILIZATION ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK ANDSPEED OF THIS MCS. OVERALL...INSTABILITY IS PROJECTED TO INCREASETO AROUND 2K J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...SHEAR PROFILESWILL HAVE ALSO INCREASED WITH 40-50KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THEREGION WITH A MAJORITY OF THAT BETWEEN 0-1KM.THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DISCRETE STRONG TO SEVERECELLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILLTRACK EASTWARD AND REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUN LATE AFTERNOONREACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AFTER 8 PM. AHEAD OF THE FRONTTHUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATINGBOUNDARIES FROM DEPARTING MCS. THE ATM WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SUPERCELLS. CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 50KTS OFSHEAR WILL LIKELY CAUSE DMG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPAWNING A COUPLE TORNADOES. THESESIGNALS ARE STRONGER THAN THE MID-ATLANTIC USUALLY WITNESSES.PLEASE USE CAUTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAKE SURE YOU ARENEAR AN OUTLET TO RECEIVE UP TO DATE WEATHER INFORMATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 MDT area looks fine, meant the 30% going more north into PA. Either way, should be interesting. I would assume that's the warm frontal zone? Haven't been on a computer much last day or two to examine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Area is gonna get crushed. Why? I'm not there. New LWX AFD is fairly bullish, and with good reason. ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I would assume that's the warm frontal zone? Haven't been on a computer much last day or two to examine. Probably. I think heading toward Morgantown, WV is best bet for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I fully expect .02" of rain and some gusty winds prior to the spit shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 SPC removed today's MDT risk. Wonder if that will be good for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 18z NAM sounding for 18z SUN at KIAD and KDCA -- ~ 2000 SBCAPE and ~ 1000 MLCAPE already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Nam kinda sucks locally .. Ok well south still. Jet streak is slow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Nam kinda sucks locally .. Ok well south still. Jet streak is slow.. The NAM has been back and forth today... 00z and 12z good for severe... 6z and 18z naso good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Well... night time tors are never fun... ~300 1km m2/s2 at 2am per 06z sounding at KIAD with 1500 SBCAPE and 1800 MLCAPE It almost looks like the 18z NAM just backed up a few hours with our threat IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 latest HRRR does bring a weakening but still fairly healthy MCC through the DC-Baltimore corridor around 2-3AM. Ohio is lightning up with cells. Could be overnight activity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 latest HRRR does bring a weakening but still fairly healthy MCC through the DC-Baltimore corridor around 2-3AM. Sub-severe or still risk of isolated damaging wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Well... night time tors are never fun... ~300 1km m2/s2 at 2am per 06z sounding at KIAD with 1500 SBCAPE and 1800 MLCAPE It almost looks like the 18z NAM just backed up a few hours with our threat IMO Good luck with that. Just hope the nam is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Nam kinda sucks locally .. Ok well south still. Jet streak is slow.. Ohio/WV get most of the action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Most recent NAM.. (18z) DC looks better later on (3-6z) with 1500 SBCAPE still hanging on when the better dynamics etc. move into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 26, 2014 Author Share Posted July 26, 2014 Latest SREF again has best parameters south of the area. That map above looks pretty bad for DC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Latest SREF again has best parameters south of the area. That map above looks pretty bad for DC lol Tracking severe threats for this area is fun and all, but most of the time the actual outcome is a notch above garden variety. Thats always fine with me, as by mid to late summer my goal is to get rain frequently enough to keep me from having to reseed half my lawn in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Latest SREF again has best parameters south of the area. That map above looks pretty bad for DC lol Yet SPC has highest threat into PA. So what's that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Yet SPC has highest threat into PA. So what's that mean?They never bust. Just look at today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 They never bust. Just look at today. Ya, today is not misplaced though, there just is no placement at all. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Latest SREF again has best parameters south of the area. That map above looks pretty bad for DC lol Wait another 3-6 hrs on that map...its 00z... we get our stuff 03-06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Yet SPC has highest threat into PA. So what's that mean? They seem to be bullish for MA / NE most times. I'm wondering if they are thinking back to the 2010 derecho when activity popped up in the Laurels and N-Central MD as the system pressed off the Appalachain Mts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 GFS pretty uninspiring too. Not a good day for model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 26, 2014 Author Share Posted July 26, 2014 GFS pretty uninspiring too. Not a good day for model trends. 15% slight risk in the morning when we wake up? Wooooo mehstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 GFS pretty uninspiring too. Not a good day for model trends. Oh well when isn't failure expected. Moderate risk goes to not even one storm out west. Hard core fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 15% slight risk in the morning when we wake up? Wooooo mehstorms Probably. Though thinking 30/15/5 no hatched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 15% slight risk in the morning when we wake up? Wooooo mehstorms Pattern recognition still says it's worth an extra eye but the GFS has a huge cape hole over us thru much of the day. I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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