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7/27 Severe Threat Discussion and Obs


Kmlwx

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Maryland and Pennsylvania are going to get annihilated tonight. South Virginia and northern North Carolina also look to be under the gun for storms and plenty of rain tonight.

 

Northern Virginia should get off easy with a few passing showers, should be no more than a sixty fourth of an inch of rain at most tonight.

 

The District will get smashed by the same storm complexes that will murder Maryland.

 

This go around I might not mind getting only a small amount of light rain --- I am having a lot of trouble keeping up with mowing the lawn. It's a jungle out there LMAO. The grass catcher bag on the mower was so damned HEAVY that I think I might have pulled my lower back somethin' terrible - Maryland can have all the rain tonight thank you very much!

 

This makes no sense at all. How will DC be crushed but N.VA get nothing? A storm going to form and move due south out of Maryland? 

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Convection is stupid. At least around here.

Weird how this thing produced all around. Most action way displaced south. Then a bunch of no shear crap in PA.

Got a few lightning pics at least. And missed an epic one. Going to check out flood warning area now.

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Convection is stupid. At least around here.

Weird how this thing produced all around. Most action way displaced south. Then a bunch of no shear crap in PA.

Got a few lightning pics at least. And missed an epic one. Going to check out flood warning area now.

Its all very frustrating... I wonder why we didn't get anything as of yet... subsidence?

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Pretty sad when storms are strong in 25kt shear and 2000 cape while we have 50kts and 2500 and can't even sustain a shower. 

The more impressive (negative) LI values on the short range models have been just north of here....extreme northern MD and southern PA. Also look at the 850 mb RH. Best moisture is over that area as well.

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Its all very frustrating... I wonder why we didn't get anything as of yet... subsidence?

Probably partly that we had high clouds most of the day down there. That rarely bodes well.

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This makes no sense at all. How will DC be crushed but N.VA get nothing? A storm going to form and move due south out of Maryland? 

The storms are moving ESE. I should have clarified that extreme north Virginia will see the same storms that will hit the District. But for the most part most of northern and central VA will get hit or miss scattered showers.

 

This system is going to annihilate Penn, MD and southern VA/N NC border with strong storms and rain. Some of these storms will train over the same areas. But my backyard is in the clear for the most part, I should see a brief drizzle or a light rainshower that will have problems getting the pavement wet. This time of year the energy is all farther north. They can have it.

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At least it's fun to look at and something you don't see very often, but S VA has a STP of 5 and the Supercell Composite is now up to 20... Too bad it's probably going to waste unless those storms in KY/WV do something.

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Today just didn't have the storm feel. Even when it does, we still usually fail lol. We suck at severe. Always have.. I only have a few memories of severe storms around here. I was just hoping for some rain. Even that doesn't look good at this point.

We so rarely have true severe weather around here. The word "severe" is thrown around too easily on this board, and even when folks think ingredients are right for real severe weather, something is bound to screw it up anyway.

I hope I get some rain without thunder tonight.

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