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7/27 Severe Threat Discussion and Obs


Kmlwx

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Mesoscale discussion but pretty much to our north. LWX is listed in the WFO's tho at the bottom. Wonder if another meso disco will be issued for the stuff back in WV and OH 

EDIT: That meso discussion is also pretty mehish except being for "watch likely"

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Most of our northern counties are included in that MD.....Harford, Northern Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, etc. 

It's still very fringe-ish tho with only the northern parts of those counties included. They might get into the watch I suppose if one is issued from that. 

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In Ocean City on the eastern shore, I believe I'm in a terrible spot for storms, does anyone think we could get something tomorrow afternoon?

I guess maybe something isolated. You're pretty far removed from the SPC slight risk tho. 

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In Ocean City on the eastern shore, I believe I'm in a terrible spot for storms, does anyone think we could get something tomorrow afternoon?

Maybe not that bad, you will get into the stronger LLJ  while the rest of us don't later tonight.

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I guess maybe something isolated. You're pretty far removed from the SPC slight risk tho. 

 

?? They are still within the SPC slight risk… The 30% wind and 5% Tor threat bisects Sussex County, DE, so the heavier threat is one county north of OC (Worecester County, MD), but they still have 15%,15%,2% threat. It still remains to be seen what will form and affect that area but according to SPC they are well within the slight risk.

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?? They are still within the SPC slight risk… The 30% wind and 5% Tor threat bisects Sussex County, DE, so the heavier threat is one county north of OC (Worecester County, MD), but they still have 15%,15%,5% threat. It still remains to be seen what will form and affect that area but according to SPC they are well within the slight risk.

Was reading that he said "tomorrow afternoon" - then looked to check day 2 outlook from SPC. 

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Was reading that he said "tomorrow afternoon" - then looked to check day 2 outlook from SPC. 

 

 

Ohhhh my bad I misread that. I thought he was talking about tonight and was so confused to what you were talking about. My apologies

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STP at 3 + SBCAPE at 2000j/kg + Effective shear at 50kts + LI at -6 + Supercell Composite at 12 with light showers incoming = I live in the Mid-Atlantic.

Wow those are good parameters. Doesn't look like the cap over your area is that strong either, something may erupt eventually.

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Hi res models-  NAM, HRRR, ARW all whiffish south of the northern MD counties down into central VA. Not sure how much this persistent mid level cloud deck has to do with it, but either way I would be surprised to see more than a trailing end sprinkle here.

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Per WBAL on Twitter (my SPC hasn't updated)

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Allegany, Carroll, Frederick and Washington County in MD until 2:00am.

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 449

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   655 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

     NORTHWESTERN MARYLAND

     NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY

     CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

     EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA

     NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM

     UNTIL 200 AM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115

   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

   HAGERSTOWN MARYLAND TO 45 MILES NORTH OF WILLIAMSPORT

   PENNSYLVANIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...WW 446...WW 447...WW 448...

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS -- SOME SVR -- WILL

   AFFECT WW AREA THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT

   HOURS...BOTH FROM ONGOING PREFRONTAL CLUSTERS AND EVENTUAL

   NEAR-FRONTAL BAND MOVING IN FROM W-E AHEAD OF STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH

   ALOFT.  REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489 FOR NEAR-TERM/INITIAL

   DETAILS.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

   MOTION VECTOR 26025.

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Maryland and Pennsylvania are going to get annihilated tonight. South Virginia and northern North Carolina also look to be under the gun for storms and plenty of rain tonight.

 

Northern Virginia should get off easy with a few passing showers, should be no more than a sixty fourth of an inch of rain at most tonight.

 

The District will get smashed by the same storm complexes that will murder Maryland.

 

This go around I might not mind getting only a small amount of light rain --- I am having a lot of trouble keeping up with mowing the lawn. It's a jungle out there LMAO. The grass catcher bag on the mower was so damned HEAVY that I think I might have pulled my lower back somethin' terrible - Maryland can have all the rain tonight thank you very much!

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