Winter 2014-15 Discussion

[buckeye]

Only bad news for Ohio.

 

awww gee Stebo thanks 

 

I always knew underneath that tough forum persona of yours, you actually liked me.

[Stebo]

awww gee Stebo thanks 

 

I always knew underneath that tough forum persona of yours, you actually liked me.

I don't hate anyone, but we all know when Ohio wins in the snow/ice department, the majority of this forum loses. My comment wasn't meant to bash anyone, I'd just rather see the warm tounge of death repeatedly focus on Ohio.

[IWXwx]

Bad news for the sub forum.... 

 

Sub-forum Weenie Command in Chief, (ie yours truly), has renewed his wxbell subscription for the winter months.     

 

Thanks. I'm always up for some wx porn.

[buckeye]

I don't hate anyone, but we all know when Ohio wins in the snow/ice department, the majority of this forum loses. My comment wasn't meant to bash anyone, I'd just rather see the warm tounge of death repeatedly focus on Ohio.

 

Well it's not like we get the lions share of the winter action in the sub forum....quite the opposite...after all we're in the southeastern flanks.   It's kinda like rooting for the Browns to choke, not much rooting required. 

 

 

Thanks. I'm always up for some wx porn.

 

Everyone laughs at the wxbell maps, makes fun of them, calls them ridiculous, some even claim they should be banned from the forum.   But admit it....deep down...when no one is looking...in the privacy of your domain...where your exposed weenie can hang without judgment...

 

you ALL look  

[SchaumburgStormer]

Everyone laughs at the wxbell maps, makes fun of them, calls them ridiculous, some even claim they should be banned from the forum. But admit it....deep down...when no one is looking...in the privacy of your domain...where your exposed weenie can hang without judgment...

you ALL look

*enacts private browsing mode... Views maps... Clears history...*

[Chicago WX]

Just a random thing, but I was just looking at the top 20 coldest winters for Indianapolis (since the official site moved to the airport) and thought that preceding Octobers and Novembers of each year/season were interesting to see. No real signal either way, as some Oct-Nov's were cold and others were torches...or some variation of each. Matter of fact, 9 of the 21 November's were above average leading into winter...but only one of those led to a warm December. The biggest flips from a warm Nov to a cold Dec were 1963, 1977, 1981, 1983, 1985, and 2010.

 

Individual Oct/Nov warm extremes: Oct 1947 is the 2nd warmest on record, October 1963 is tied for the 4th warmest....Nov 2009 is the 10th warmest.

 

Just two years/seasons had all five months below normal...1969-70 and 1976-77. Though, 2013-14 was close, but I have Oct as near normal by my criteria. 

 

Also of note, it shows how hard it is to get three consecutive winter months to average below normal (-0.6˚ or colder). Only 1962-63, 1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1981-82, and 2013-14 pulled off that feat. 1961-62 and 2009-10 didn't have an above average month, but both had a near normal month that was negative.

 

Also, per CPC's ONI, seven of the above winters were in an El Nino state: 1958-59, 1963-64, 1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2002-03, and 2009-10.

 

FWIW and an FYI, October 2014 is -1.8˚ at IND through yesterday. But, the rest of the month is going to torch...so that number will probably end up in the near normal category when all is said and done.

 

 

Departures are based off the longterm airport record (1943 to present).

[BuffaloWeather]

Well it's not like we get the lions share of the winter action in the sub forum....quite the opposite...after all we're in the southeastern flanks.   It's kinda like rooting for the Browns to choke, not much rooting required. 

 

 

 

Everyone laughs at the wxbell maps, makes fun of them, calls them ridiculous, some even claim they should be banned from the forum.   But admit it....deep down...when no one is looking...in the privacy of your domain...where your exposed weenie can hang without judgment...

 

you ALL look  

 

I think I asked for someone to post the wxbell maps a dozen or so times last winter. Thanks for your purchase and look forward to many weenie maps.

[Whitelakeroy]

I think I asked for someone to post the wxbell maps a dozen or so times last winter. Thanks for your purchase and look forward to many weenie maps.

Agreed ... thanks Buckeye for taking the bullet so we get to see such wonderful porn

[Whitelakeroy]

It has been interesting looking at all the winter comments in here and on other threads and on the web.  When I see so many very COLD themes it makes the weenie in me excited but soon the red flags go off saying we have been here before and been burned oh so many time by mother nature.  Heck last year the NW PAC water temps were cooler than average toward then end of October before rapidly warming in November.

 

I like what Josh said ... in summary ... this winter if colder than normal will most likely be warmer than last winter and this winter if snowier than normal is most likely going to be less snowier than last winter.  If either of those become false IMBY then I will gladly eat those words.

 

Roger Smith post in another thread pretty much echo my current thoughts/expectation:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44654-my-2014-2015-winter-outlook/?p=3094813

 

I am very much looking forward to winter but will gladly wait a few more weeks so I can complete my outside work!

[Minnesota Meso]

I think I asked for someone to post the wxbell maps a dozen or so times last winter. Thanks for your purchase and look forward to many weenie maps.

 

Sorry to say that buckeye won't be able to post those maps due to proprietary reasons, it could get him in deep dodo if he does, I too have access to snow maps, especially the ECMWF (however it's a different site) and I would not post them without the express permission of the site administer from which they came.  

[Minnesota Meso]

@ Chicago Wx  post #211

@Harry post 201 and 217

 

Thanks for your comments.  I do know that relaying on analog years only is very dangerous.  Even though I really like 79/80, there are other years that I like as well such as 58-59 and 76-77.  The only one that I have scored is 79-80. My scoring is based on how well the upcoming year matches the analog years based on ENSO, QBO, PDO ,EPO, PNA, NAO, and AO, (although I am thinking of adding AMO.)  Matches are scored based on a excellent match that would equal a score of 5, Very good=4, Good=3, Fair=2, poor=1.  So based on the seven criteria, the highest score would be 35. It would be very rare that any of the 7 would score a excellent, or perfect match, so it would be rare that you would see a score above 28. By the way, when deciding on what analog years to investigate further I relay  on ENSO, you have to have a starting point, and that makes the most sense to me.

 

So far 79/80 scores a 27 which is very high.  It will be interesting on Monday when I plug the others in what kind a grade they will get.  Once you get an idea of what the overall pattern may be, than you have to start making adjustments based on current conditions, which will normally force you to make adjustments to the maps. While I haven't posted the maps based on analog years, I have posted the JAMSTEC and made adjustments to it where I deemed necessary at post #200.

 

EDIT:  BTW, I wished somehow I could take into the effect  the Palmer Drought Index. The match is lousy for 79/80 but there must have been another driver during fall 79 that I can't find or correlate to.

[buckeye]

Sorry to say that buckeye won't be able to post those maps due to proprietary reasons, it could get him in deep dodo if he does, I too have access to snow maps, especially the ECMWF (however it's a different site) and I would not post them without the express permission of the site administer from which they came.  

 

You may be right however I could have sworn I read somewhere or JB himself made a comment that they don't mind the wxbell maps being posted, specifically the ones that are generated solely through their site, ie snowfall totals etc.   Either way I might send an email and see what their guidelines are.    Hell, DT posts them all the time on his facebook page.   It's also a good way for wxbell to get some pub.

[JoMo]

You may be right however I could have sworn I read somewhere or JB himself made a comment that they don't mind the wxbell maps being posted, specifically the ones that are generated solely through their site, ie snowfall totals etc.   Either way I might send an email and see what their guidelines are.    Hell, DT posts them all the time on his facebook page.   It's also a good way for wxbell to get some pub.

 

The restrictions on Euro data don't come from WxBell, they come from the ECMWF itself which requires a license. However, Ryan Maue once explained it as..... You can post the 'value added' maps, and you can post the maps for 'educational' reasons if you aren't using them commercially. 

[Chinook]

You may be right however I could have sworn I read somewhere or JB himself made a comment that they don't mind the wxbell maps being posted, specifically the ones that are generated solely through their site, ie snowfall totals etc.   Either way I might send an email and see what their guidelines are.    Hell, DT posts them all the time on his facebook page.   It's also a good way for wxbell to get some pub.

Tropical Tidbits is now offering ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble maps. There are not precipitation maps though. I'm not sure if there are any rules for posting these sort of things. It's not a pay site.

[Spwild47]

OPI solid at -2.2..> 1SD Eurasian snow cover...trending weak El Niño...

Think the STJ gets on the field this year?

[Harry]

@ Chicago Wx  post #211

@Harry post 201 and 217

 

Thanks for your comments.  I do know that relaying on analog years only is very dangerous.  Even though I really like 79/80, there are other years that I like as well such as 58-59 and 76-77.  The only one that I have scored is 79-80. My scoring is based on how well the upcoming year matches the analog years based on ENSO, QBO, PDO ,EPO, PNA, NAO, and AO, (although I am thinking of adding AMO.)  Matches are scored based on a excellent match that would equal a score of 5, Very good=4, Good=3, Fair=2, poor=1.  So based on the seven criteria, the highest score would be 35. It would be very rare that any of the 7 would score a excellent, or perfect match, so it would be rare that you would see a score above 28. By the way, when deciding on what analog years to investigate further I relay  on ENSO, you have to have a starting point, and that makes the most sense to me.

 

So far 79/80 scores a 27 which is very high.  It will be interesting on Monday when I plug the others in what kind a grade they will get.  Once you get an idea of what the overall pattern may be, than you have to start making adjustments based on current conditions, which will normally force you to make adjustments to the maps. While I haven't posted the maps based on analog years, I have posted the JAMSTEC and made adjustments to it where I deemed necessary at post #200.

 

EDIT:  BTW, I wished somehow I could take into the effect  the Palmer Drought Index. The match is lousy for 79/80 but there must have been another driver during fall 79 that I can't find or correlate to.

 

 

When one has a weak nino the fall pattern becomes a bit more important especially in terms of precip trends.

 

Note the maps millwx posted in the New England subforum.. He used moderate/stronger nino years as well. Run those maps for the fall..

 

Now if you remove the crap aka mod/strong events this is how it looks.

 

This is fall..

 

vs this year.. Remember to go run his for the fall..

 

Now here is the winter using those same years and thus without the moderate/stronger nino's..

 

Here is Sept/Oct 79..

 

I wouldn't touch that with a 10 foot pole..

[Minnesota Meso]

Harry...Thanks for the info.  If you look at my post that you copied I was thinking of adding in the match for the AMO.  I have since added that and 79/80 is no longer my number one analog, it is now 1958/59.  I'm am still using 79/80, 76/77 and have added 77/78. However I have now weighted 58/59 twice.  I am kind of tired so I will load up those years into photobucket tomorrow afternoon or evening and post them for prosperity.  I will include both the long term 1895-2000 comparison and the 81/2010 climo comparison.  There are some differences to what millwx posted but they are somewhat minor, I just need a clear mind to interpret them properly. Although the fall precip is somewhat different than this year.  Once again thanks.  

[Harry]

Harry...Thanks for the info.  If you look at my post that you copied I was thinking of adding in the match for the AMO.  I have since added that and 79/80 is no longer my number one analog, it is now 1958/59.  I'm am still using 79/80, 76/77 and have added 77/78. However I have now weighted 58/59 twice.  I am kind of tired so I will load up those years into photobucket tomorrow afternoon or evening and post them for prosperity.  I will include both the long term 1895-2000 comparison and the 81/2010 climo comparison.  There are some differences to what millwx posted but they are somewhat minor, I just need a clear mind to interpret them properly. Although the fall precip is somewhat different than this year.  Once again thanks.  

 

 

NP.

 

Fall precip patterns can tell a great story for the winter to come ( with regards to storm track/precip ) but like anything else other stuff at times can have more influence and thus see a stronger Nino/Nina for one, solar activity and solar in tandem with Nino/Nina, etc. It RARELY fails though and you can go back and look at them all to see for yourself.  Weak Nino's in general favor above normal precip in this region and usually if it is gonna be dry the signs will show up in fall and thus see 63-64, 76-77. The one time it did fail was in 2004 but in this case the fall pattern was dry while the winter ended up wetter then normal? Good luck with it.

 

And yep it could fail this year ( weak nino/fall precip ) but it is not something i would place money or a call on. Too much of a risky bet for my tastes.

 

With mod/strong event the signal is still there but not as strong. See 72-73, 06-07.. 1899-1900 ( mod nino ) though was another fail but like 2004 the winter ended up wetter.

 

 

And wow was that 58-59 a cold one..brrr The map kinda looks like last winter.. Your analogs are brutal as far as the cold goes across this region except for that oddball 79-80.

 

One thing we all seem to agree on is the cold granted there could be some different thinking to the placement of coldest departures from normal etc..

[michsnowfreak]

When one has a weak nino the fall pattern becomes a bit more important especially in terms of precip trends.

 

Note the maps millwx posted in the New England subforum.. He used moderate/stronger nino years as well. Run those maps for the fall..

 

Now if you remove the crap aka mod/strong events this is how it looks.

 

This is fall..

BESTmatchanalogsFALL.png

OMG...LOL...those analogs are pure porn for here.

1898-99 --- 60.2" --- 16th snowiest winter

1925-26 --- 78.0" ----- 3rd snowiest winter

1951-52 --- 58.6" --- 18th snowiest winter (however

1977-78 --- 61.7" --- 13th snowiest winter (2nd most snowcovered winter on record, only behind 2013-14)

2004-05 --- 63.8" --- 11th snowiest winter

 

So the average of those analogs is 64.5", or nearly 2 feet above normal

[michsnowfreak]

And wow was that 58-59 a cold one..brrr The map kinda looks like last winter.. Your analogs are brutal as far as the cold goes across this region except for that oddball 79-80.

Winter 1958-59 is another winter (like 1979-80 until earlier this year) that I had never really gone into detail looking at. In all the years and all the winter outlooks Ive seen, I dont think I can ever recall it being used as an analog either.

 

~Snowfall was a bit below normal at Detroit with 37.2", the biggest storm was only 4.4", & the peak snow depth was 7".

 

~There were several ice storms (a common theme in the 1940s/1950s that we just dont see anymore...that in itself is something Id love to know why), and one in January was a severe ice storm where 0.88" of freezing rain fell but it fell in a matter of only a few hours (there was a solid snowpack prior to the storm, and more fresh snow fell in the next few days, so it was probably quite a tundra-like scene).

 

~The winter stands as the 18th coldest winter on record, and while no gawdy record lows were seen, it was one of those winters where the persistent cold won out (in fact the temp did not exceed 44F from November 27th until March 15th).

 

~Snowcover was well above normal at 82 days, good for 8th whitest winter (since 1908)

 

So basically in summary...it was a cold, white winter that did not feature any memorable snowstorms or individual records, but in the end it was one that was extremely friendly to those who simply like winter for snow and ice sports.

[DAFF]

I can't recall so many cold and snowy pics over such a vast area this early in the season. Winter seems to picking up right where it left off last spring with lots of cold and a relentless supply of it. My fear is while it is cold the precip seems to be very light for the last few months in our region. While the ground is damp but we still haven't had a true soaking rain with any storm since the floods in the late summer.

 

Sort of fits the description of the 58-59 winter in my eyes.

[michsnowfreak]

I can't recall so many cold and snowy pics over such a vast area this early in the season. Winter seems to picking up right where it left off last spring with lots of cold and a relentless supply of it. My fear is while it is cold the precip seems to be very light for the last few months in our region. While the ground is damp but we still haven't had a true soaking rain with any storm since the floods in the late summer.

 

Sort of fits the description of the 58-59 winter in my eyes.

Will be interesting to see what happens. We had so many big snowstorms last year (6 storms of 6"+ was the most on record for Detroit in fact) that it wouldnt be a shock if those slow down this year (might as well go out then and hope that if we only get one big storm its a monster). But from late November through mid-March in 58-59, there was on all but a few days, some snow on the ground, so salters such as yourself and winter lovers like myself would be content.

[Hoosier]

JB is riding 77-78 from what I've heard. 

[Chicago WX]

JB is riding 77-78 from what I've heard. 

 

lol, I bet he is. But to dream a little...a repeat of that winter, after this last winter...that would be something.

[Hoosier]

lol, I bet he is. But to dream a little...a repeat of that winter, after this last winter...that would be something.

 

 

Any thoughts on this winter for our area?  I'm leaning colder and snowier than average, but probably tempered compared to last winter.  I don't really have much to back up that last part and it's just based on how difficult it is to get such a cold and snowy winter.  The risk is there for a more disappointing winter, especially if ENSO struggles and hangs around 0 or warm neutral.

[Chicago WX]

Any thoughts on this winter for our area?  I'm leaning colder and snowier than average, but probably tempered compared to last winter.  I don't really have much to back up that last part and it's just based on how difficult it is to get such a cold and snowy winter.  The risk is there for a more disappointing winter, especially if ENSO struggles and hangs around 0 or warm neutral.

 

I'm pretty confident about winter being colder than normal for us...some possibility of it being really cold. That being said, in terms of snowfall...I just don't know. If we get 35" this winter...it'll seem like a disappointment, despite of course that being a typical pretty good season. I guess my lean would be slightly above normal ATTM. Hopefully November can add some clues to how things may shape up storm track wise, etc etc. 

 

I just signed up for WxBell, so we're probably screwed now. But, big snowstorm on the 0z Euro control run for us in about 12 days or so. 

[Hoosier]

I'm pretty confident about winter being colder than normal for us...some possibility of it being really cold. That being said, in terms of snowfall...I just don't know. If we get 35" this winter...it'll seem like a disappointment, despite of course that being a typical pretty good season. I guess my lean would be slightly above normal ATTM. Hopefully November can add some clues to how things may shape up storm track wise, etc etc. 

 

I just signed up for WxBell, so we're probably screwed now. But, big snowstorm on the 0z Euro control run for us in about 12 days or so. 

 

 

Great, as if buckeye wasn't enough. 

[Chicago WX]

Great, as if buckeye wasn't enough. 

 

lol, they do have a good catalog of models and stuff. Pretty graphics too. I'll make to send you some snowfall maps, because I know you love them. 

[IWXwx]

I'm pretty confident about winter being colder than normal for us...some possibility of it being really cold. That being said, in terms of snowfall...I just don't know. If we get 35" this winter...it'll seem like a disappointment, despite of course that being a typical pretty good season. I guess my lean would be slightly above normal ATTM. Hopefully November can add some clues to how things may shape up storm track wise, etc etc. 

 

I just signed up for WxBell, so we're probably screwed now. But, big snowstorm on the 0z Euro control run for us in about 12 days or so. 

 

lol

 

I'm actually going with below normal snowfall for most of the subforum after doing a little research, but mostly just because of the law of averages.

[Chicago WX]

I'm actually going with below normal snowfall for most of the subforum after doing a little research, but mostly just because of the law of averages.

 

What's your analogs...1982-83, 1997-98, 2001-02, and 2011-12?