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Winter 2014-15 Discussion


Hoosier

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So it looks like every private forecaster/outlet I've read is going for generally colder and snowier than average.  Several different reasons given from forecast to forecast.  Looks light noaa is the only outlet calling for a mostly near normal winter that I've seen.  

 

If nothing else we are primed for an upset.

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So it looks like every private forecaster/outlet I've read is going for generally colder and snowier than average.  Several different reasons given from forecast to forecast.  Looks light noaa is the only outlet calling for a mostly near normal winter that I've seen.  

 

If nothing else we are primed for an upset.

 

Yep. someone's gonna lose. The government against the people. I always say that conservative is the way to go with weather, so I'll buck the trend and take NOAA's side.

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I think some of you are getting caught up a bit too much in the snowcover stuff as we saw last year. There is reasons why the snow cover stuff failed last year and those SAME reasons apply this year. See the EPO for a good start and those north pac SSTs. Typically the EPO ridge ( -EPO ) IS centered further west then the -ao/-nao as we saw last winter but is close enough that as we saw last winter the AO ended near neutral vs the insanely positive that the snowcover stuff had predicted. We get that same -EPO going again you can be sure the AO/NAO wont be all that different either and this has a decent chance of happening again based on what the EPO has been doing and those north pac SSTs.

What drove alot of 79-80 was we had a VERY dry fall especially here in the lakes.

attachicon.gifSeptOct79.png

vs..

60dPNormUS.png

Also note that other winters that featured a similar pattern ( 79-80 ) also had a similar fall in this region ( GL )and thus precip way below normal. see 76-77.. btw.. I am using weak nino years using the prior ONI version. The new one is totally useless. This all changes a bit when we get a mod/strong nino and thus a ONI of 1.0+!

Now i am not saying we wont see any suppression but i do suspect what we do have will be alot closer to last winter then say a pattern like 79-80 or 02-03 for that matter. JMHO

I think the warm Pac SST's developing in the ENSO regions argue for a different pattern than last year, and the pattern this October is already reflecting that. Last October we saw a ridge off the west coast, however this October we have a trough in the GOA. That said, not every Nino is going to flood the Great Lakes/Midwest with warm/dry. But I do think that if we do see a big ridge in the Pacific, it happens farther east this year. I just can't buy the N. Pacific SST's driving the weather pattern, I think they're more of a reflection of the ongoing weather pattern. I may be wrong though. Last October we still had cooler than normal SST's off the NW coast before a ridge developed there, and then those flipped to warm. The N. Central Pac SST's were already warm before last winter's big ridge in the NE Pac, so there is that going for the N. Pac SSTs--> winter pattern idea.

Last year was interesting for snow cover extent/advance in Eurasia. The advance was weak, but the month started high with a lot of snow cover so the overall extent wasn't terrible. At the end of the day the Pacific overwhelmed the pattern though. Will that happen again this year? It may. The numbers show that the snow cover works most of the time...not all of the time (see last year for starters)...so we'll see if that combines with the -QBO and warm ENSO regions (both of which seem to favor a -AO). I guess I shouldn't just assume that a -AO means suppression, because that doesn't guarantee that any cold will go into the eastern US, but I still think a -AO is more likely than an overall +AO this winter. If we get a trough centered over the Great Lakes (which is a bit farther east than last winter, although not terribly so) but the NAO manages to be neutral or positive for most of the winter we may still see our share of storms either run up the Apps or cut into the eastern Lakes. However, if we manage to get a -NAO (which I'm not super confident about personally, although some others seem to be), then suppression would probably become more of an issue for the region.

I agree with you that 1979-80 wasn't the best match going in WRT the fall pattern, as I mentioned in my post, but I thought it was interesting that we did get a month with a huge eastern US trough in a somewhat similar situation (+PDO, almost weak Nino, -QBO and -AO winter), so I do think that option is possibly in the cards at some point for this winter if nothing else changes. Although I do hope that you're right and the suppression is more limited than I think it may be at times.

As an aside, where can I find ENSO data using the old ONI? I'm guessing the CPC ONI data uses the new index, and it would be interesting to compare and contrast. Thanks.

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I think the warm Pac SST's developing in the ENSO regions argue for a different pattern than last year, and the pattern this October is already reflecting that. Last October we saw a ridge off the west coast, however this October we have a trough in the GOA. That said, not every Nino is going to flood the Great Lakes/Midwest with warm/dry. But I do think that if we do see a big ridge in the Pacific, it happens farther east this year. I just can't buy the N. Pacific SST's driving the weather pattern, I think they're more of a reflection of the ongoing weather pattern. I may be wrong though. Last October we still had cooler than normal SST's off the NW coast before a ridge developed there, and then those flipped to warm. The N. Central Pac SST's were already warm before last winter's big ridge in the NE Pac, so there is that going for the N. Pac SSTs--> winter pattern idea.

Last year was interesting for snow cover extent/advance in Eurasia. The advance was weak, but the month started high with a lot of snow cover so the overall extent wasn't terrible. At the end of the day the Pacific overwhelmed the pattern though. Will that happen again this year? It may. The numbers show that the snow cover works most of the time...not all of the time (see last year for starters)...so we'll see if that combines with the -QBO and warm ENSO regions (both of which seem to favor a -AO). I guess I shouldn't just assume that a -AO means suppression, because that doesn't guarantee that any cold will go into the eastern US, but I still think a -AO is more likely than an overall +AO this winter. If we get a trough centered over the Great Lakes (which is a bit farther east than last winter, although not terribly so) but the NAO manages to be neutral or positive for most of the winter we may still see our share of storms either run up the Apps or cut into the eastern Lakes. However, if we manage to get a -NAO (which I'm not super confident about personally, although some others seem to be), then suppression would probably become more of an issue for the region.

I agree with you that 1979-80 wasn't the best match going in WRT the fall pattern, as I mentioned in my post, but I thought it was interesting that we did get a month with a huge eastern US trough in a somewhat similar situation (+PDO, almost weak Nino, -QBO and -AO winter), so I do think that option is possibly in the cards at some point for this winter if nothing else changes. Although I do hope that you're right and the suppression is more limited than I think it may be at times.

As an aside, where can I find ENSO data using the old ONI? I'm guessing the CPC ONI data uses the new index, and it would be interesting to compare and contrast. Thanks.

 

 

Do note i covered a weak nino and thus see 76-77 and even the mod nino of 02-03 had the same dry Fall pattern in this region. Understand? Thus yes too 76-77/02-03 ( along with a few others most notably mod/strong nino events ) had those warm PAC SSTs. Now 09-10 did not have the dry fall for those wondering.. Ofcourse that winter was a bit more active in these parts..

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I could see an 02-03 repeat where the southern and eastern parts of the region do very well while the northern and western parts miss out, that certainly seems plasible. Though I would bet the NW flow/clipper train this winter would be a bit more active compared to that winter.

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I think that the -QBO, combined with the extensive snow cover advancement over Eurasia this month, which suggest a -AO, combined with what will likely be a weak El Nino suggests that we'll have a lot to track this winter across the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of the US. The El Nino suggests that we won't see Dateline ridging this winter that dumps cold into central Canada, but probably ridging closer to the west coast. This probably isn't good for areas farther north and west in our subforum as it would probably put mean troughing over the Great Lakes or NE US this winter. The factors pointing to a -AO suggest that we'll have cold air to potentially work with this winter, and the El Nino suggests an active sub tropical jet (at least moreso than the last few winters). The El Nino will probably be weak, so that climo doesn't kill winter for this entire subforum by any stretch, and the potential -AO suggests the country won't be consistently flooded with warmth as a whole, but I'd say odds favor more active weather closer to the southern and eastern fringes of this subforum (due to the mean troughing being located farther east than last winter, the -AO potentially forcing cold into the US and forcing the storm track a bit farther south, and Nino climo favoring a ridge over western N. America, and an active subtropical jet, which suggests best action will be in the southern and eastern US).

 

I'm not a big fan of strictly using analogs, just because there are so many factors that go into long range forecasting nowadays that it's hard to find multiple years in which everything reasonably matches what you expect for the upcoming year you're forecasting for, but when I put together my winter outlook a week or so ago the winter of 1979-80 came up a few different times...for a +PDO, essentially weak Nino (ENSO region 3.4 had four tri-monthly periods come in at a +0.5C anomaly, so just short), and negative but rising QBO during the winter. That winter was variable, with the NE US being very cold in December and the west being warm...January sort of flipped, it was very cold in the NW and warm in the SE US, and then February saw a large western US ridge and deep eastern US trough. I'm not sure if we'll see a similar progression this year, because October of 1979 saw a modest +AO (November was negative), and December of that winter had a pretty good +AO. It wouldn't shock me if we saw a -AO develop sooner than January this winter based on the decent -AO that has persisted for October and per ensembles may try to persist into November, and what seems like many signs strongly pointing to a -AO winter.

 

So I guess my main concern for this winter will be the potential for suppression, especially when (or "if" I should probably say) a good -AO develops. I don't mind suppression because that probably helps my quaint little corner in SE Ohio, but that doesn't help out a lot of the rest of the Great Lakes region. A trough over the Lakes or NE with some clippers probably isn't bad for lake effect belts, and even though the lakes are running cold I doubt they freeze enough to shut things off until very late in the winter if at all unless we see some really cold air like last winter (except for Erie), so I don't think this is all bad news, but we'll see what happens!

Agree with many of your thoughts here. The Stronger then normal BDC is already evident from the significantly higher ozone anoms then last year developing near greenland/the pole. This combined with the el nino are enough to produce a major -AO pattern in Jan and even Feb to a lesser extent. The -OPI, near record SAI/SCE are just icing on the cake IMO. We are already seeing the troposphere make an impact at the stratospheric level via a heightened wave 1 response with the core of the warmth developing over the upper strat across N Siberia. If we can develop a CW in Nov then the odds of a cold Dec go up markedly in my eyes. If this doesn't happen then its probably a classic nino month with warmth over the central/NW parts of the subforum and cool/wet anoms limited to the NE. In Jan my analogs go the other way with a major reversal over the plains to well below normal. The signal is somewhat weaker in Feb but still strong(in the CW years warmth redevelops over the N Plains/Western Lakes). The March signal is also strong for a -AO/NAO and trough axis over the lakes implying an active storm track over the interior northeast, EC and SE parts of the subforum in the means. The analog years I've been using are 79-80, 93-94, 03-04, 02-03, 51-51, 58-59, 68-69 and 69-70. 

 

I wrote a piece on it here with some visuals: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/2014/10/winter-possibilities-canadian-warming.html

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I also like 79-80, as a matter of fact I like it for my #1 analog so far.  I'm also liking 58-59 and it will be included in the package. I am also considering 76-77 and possibly 68-69.  1968-69 was similar in that we were coming off a neutral cool basis from 67-68, although late in the season we did go to weak La Nina, although very weak.

 

I have scored 79-80 based on ENSO, QBO, PDO, EPO, PNA NAO, and AO. Each telleconection was scored on a EX,VG,G, F, P for each of those compared to what we have seen so far this year, or what  they are expected to be for the remaining of the season. EX was given a value of 5 and P was given a value of 1.  79-80 was scored a 27 out of 35.  I will have to look at the others to see what they show.

 

I have high confidence that we will see a moderate to strong -AO develop disrupting the Polar vortex.  I have been siting on the fence as to where the cold will go to, our side of the pole, the other side or possibly split.

 

This is what the Euro is showing, and it has been consistent the last couple of days.  Based on warming in the Stratosphere on our side, cold air intrusions are quite likely. 

 

 

eecmwf50f240.gif

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I would expect that things will look somewhat similar to this.  I would make just a few changes to this map.  I would put the far NW US (Northern CA, Oregon,and Washington at near normal to slightly cooler.  I would move the western warmth to very near the lee side of the Rockies putting the Northern Plains, most all of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Eastern TX in the colder air.  From their I would run it from Louisiana through central Mississippi and Alabama up through the Tennessee Valley along the western spine of the Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes area.  As far as the SE US goes I believe it will be near normal temps to slightly above with about average precip.  I don't think the sub tropical jet will be a strong as most people think.  Any systems that enter the SW US will have to fight off very dry conditions and try to restrengthen on the lee side of the Rockies relying solely on a wide open GOM in order for strong storms to impact that area. The western drought could doom the SE US.

 

temp2.glob.DJF2015.1oct2014.gif

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I wouldn't put 79-80 too high unless we end up having a very dry end of October and through November. If that were to happen I think the 79-80 analog would rise higher.

 

This x1,000! IT is exceedingly rare to get a 79-80 winter in these parts with what we have now especially the fall pattern we have had and a developing weak nino.

 

 

post-90-0-37241000-1413943721_thumb.png

 

post-90-0-34258900-1413943740_thumb.png

 

Not to mention we were nearing a far more impressive solar peak in 79-80.. This is vital with a -QBO which i have posted on here about before. 

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch/spot_num.txt

 

Then there is the ole AO.. You know how hard it is to do what it did in 79-80 and thus be negative from basically Christmas till nearly the end of May for most of the time?

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

 

09-10 it nearly did it but from earlier in December till the first few days of March.

 

Again the pattern and a few other key things do not fit it.

 

Anyways.. Good luck with it. :)

 

Not sure if i'll do a actual call or not this year?

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I wouldn't put 79-80 too high unless we end up having a very dry end of October and through November. If that were to happen I think the 79-80 analog would rise higher.

A Major factor that winter was also the raging Smax. The recent september SSN was ~85 and we are levelling off now. Pending any significant solar increases from now through winter, were not even in the same league solar wise.

1979 9 188.4 

1979 10 186.2 

1979 11 183.3 

1979 12 176.3 

1980 1 159.6 

1980 2 155.0 

1980 3 126.2 

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1979-80 was interesting. November was cold in the western 2/3 of the CONUS...December was a vicious torch, especially in the central-northern Plains/upper MW...January was kinda weird...February was the coldest month of that winter in the MW...and then March featured CONUS wide cold.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December - March was fairly dry in the region.

 

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Yep only 68.4 at KBuf.

A few totals from the midwest/lakes

Columbus, OH- 16.6"

Toledo, OH- 17.5"

Indianapolis, IN- 24.8"

St Louis, MO- 25.6"

Detroit, MI- 26.9"

La Crosse, WI- 32.0"

Cleveland, OH- 38.7"

Flint, MI- 39.7"

Chicago, IL- 39.7"

Milwaukee, WI- 47.0"

Grand Rapids, MI- 48.5"

Minneapolis, MN- 53.3"

Buffalo, NY- 68.4"

Marquette, MI- 146.0"

 

Didnt do too hot to our east either

Boston, MA- 12.5"

New York City, NY- 12.8"

Philadelphia, PA- 18.8"

Pittsburgh, PA- 24.0"

Portland, ME- 27.5"

Burlington, VT- 39.6"

 

So as you see...widespread below to much below normal snowfall, with a few cities SCRAPING by with normal to SLIGHTLY above normal snowfall. So a winter repeat would basically mean count on below normal snow, and hope that if the storm track treats you right, you may be one of the lucky few that eeks out near normal.

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Tim, a while back on Harrys board I looked at 1979-80 in detail because it was so weird, especially coming on the heals of a trio of wonderfully vicious winters. Here is a copy and paste of that weird winter at Detroit.

 

Oct 1979- A trace of snow occurred on 3 days (10th, 25th, 27th)

 

Nov 1979- The month was a few degrees colder than normal. Traces and dustings of snow peppered themselves throughout the month, but a 2-inch fall on the 28th was the only real meaningful snowfall of the month. Monthly snowfall was 3.2", but only one day (28th) was there 1"+ snowdepth (1").

 

Dec 1979- The month actually started with a 1.3" snow on the 1st, which stayed on the ground the next 3 days before mild air came in. Another 1" snow on the 16th would also stay on the ground 3 days, along with very cold weather, but the last 10 days of the month were very mild, including a Christmas rainstorm. The 1st & 16th were the only days of the month to see any measurable snow (several meaningless traces of course), so monthly total was only 2.3". We managed 6 days with 1" snow depth, but no deeper. The month was a few degrees warmer than normal. 13th least snowy Dec on record

 

Jan 1980- The month finished slightly colder than normal, but there was literally no meaningful snows. Just a smattering of dustings. 10 days saw measurable snow, but the monthly total was only 2.8"! The closest thing to a meaningful snow was the 0.9" fall on the 24/25th, which left the months ONLY TWO DAYS of 1" snow depth (25/26th!) Though numerous days of the month had a T of snowdepth, what a slap in the face to have a seasonably cold January with not a single day of grass-tip covering snow. 14th least snowy Jan on record.

 

Feb 1980- Feb was a very cold month, and while a T of snow was on the ground most of the first 2 weeks of the month, once again, no meaningful snow. FINALLY a 3.2" fall on the 15th brought a 4-day period of a nice blanket of snow (along with very cold air). The snow depth of 3" on FEB 16th was the FIRST day of the 1979-80 season to have a snow depth greater than 1"! The warmest temp of the entire month was only 42F, and only 21 days had high temps below freezing, yet only 6 days had 1"+ snowdepth. Monthly total snow 5.5".

 

March 1980- Another month well colder than normal. Winter finally saw a heavy snowstorm with near 0 visib even, on the 8th, dropping 5.5" of snow (but only lasting a few hours). But after only 2 days snow depth went back down to a T. Then a 2.6" fall on the 13th only lasted on the ground 1 day. So even when we finally got a month in '79-80 with well below normal temps AND ABOVE normal snowfall (11.7"), somehow we only got 4 days with 1"+ snowdepth, the rest a smattering of traces and quickly melting coatings.

 

Apr 1980- 1.3" of snow fell on the 14/15th amid a heavy rainstorm.

 

So in the end....the DJF temp of 26.2F is colder than normal, but it was really a mild Dec, a seasonably cold Jan, and a very cold Feb (& Mar). Total snowfall of 26.9" is well below normal but ranks as only the 28th least snowy winter on record. Despite this...just 19 days had 1"+ snowcover, which ranks as the 7th barest winter on record (since 1906). I will note that a whopping 59 additional days from Nov to Apr had a T depth, but that most days was a dusting or assumably skiffs of snow on the ground. I counted 42 days where the high temp was 32F or colder but there was 0 or just a T snowdepth. Without doing too much analyzing, I would say this winter was the worst for cold snowless (or near snowless) landscape ever. Again...I am NOT saying this winter was worse than the infamously warm, snowless winters (like 1881-82, 1889-90, 1918-19, 1931-32, 1948-49, 1952-53). I suppose someone like me would still take 79-80 over one of the above mentioned horrendous warm, snowless winters. And Im also not saying its the only winter that was cold with little snow...far from it (look no further than 1995-96). But even several of our lightest snowfall winters, when accompanied by some cold blasts, were able to produce some periods of snowcover (1957-58 had 18.0" snow but 32 days 1"+ snwcvr, 1960-61 had 18.0" snow but 35 days 1"+ snwcvr, 1965-66 had 15.4" snow but 33 days 1"+ snwcvr). In 1979-80, we were just left out in the cold.

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Thanks for the breakdown Josh.

 

For Indy, Dec 1979 was pretty much snowless. 0.2" total for the month, with only 4 days having snow fall. January managed a 3.0" event on on the 30th, but the monthly total was still a disappointing 5.0". February nickel and dimed its way to a total of 14.5"...and 23 of the days had at least an inch of snow on the ground. March went back to boring with 1.6" on the 1st, and then 2.0" on the 12-13th. That was that.

 

Alas for this and future winter's interests, analogs are never perfect. Minnesota Meso is a pretty sharp weather enthusiast though, IMHO.  

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Thanks for the breakdown Josh.

 

For Indy, Dec 1979 was pretty much snowless. 0.2" total for the month, with only 4 days having snow fall. January managed a 3.0" event on on the 30th, but the monthly total was still a disappointing 5.0". February nickel and dimed its way to a total of 14.5"...and 23 of the days had at least an inch of snow on the ground. March went back to boring with 1.6" on the 1st, and then 2.0" on the 12-13th. That was that.

 

Alas for this and future winter's interests, analogs are never perfect. Minnesota Meso is a pretty sharp weather enthusiast though, IMHO.  

Perfectly stated. Analogs are analogs. Say the 2002-03 winter is an analog....28.6" at Chicago but 60.9" at Detroit....it can be a great analog (NOT saying it is, using this hypothetically)...but if there is a jolt in the storm track one way or another, Detroit could get screwed or if its the other way Chicago can join in on the snowy fun with Detroit. Too many fine details.

 

What was so odd about 1979-80 is the timing was just terrible here at Detroit. These days, we complain when we get those raw, cold days with little or no snowcover, Even though we have them almost every winter, they are never fun. But 42 days with a high BELOW freezing and 0 or T snowcover? OUCH. The cold seemed relentless at times, yet look what happened with the winters two largest snows. We finally get a 3.2" snow in Feb, ushering in a cold front no less, but 4 days later it suddenly gets warm. Then in March we get a 5.5" snow, it gets warm the NEXT DAY and the nice snowcover lasted but 2 days, then we see another snow last on the ground a day, then as soon as the snow depth is down to a T, back in the deepfreeze. Outside of the December torch, it was a cold winter (Nov, Jan, Feb, Mar) and so little to show for it.

 

With many signs pointing AGAINST a mild winter this year, and mother natures outrageous surplus of snow last winter (last decade, really), I suppose a cold winter with below normal snow wouldnt be a surprise. I just hope IF that happens we can coordinate the snowcover a bit better. For instance, Detroit saw just 26.6" of snow in the winter of 1947-48, a cold, dry winter, however, managed a top 5 snowcover year, with 89 days of 1"+ snowcover (the snow was locked in by a New Years ice storm, but still it was cold).....yet 26.9" of snow in 1979-80 produced 19 such days of snowcover :lol:

 

And btw, luckily, there are many signs pointing to a nice winter, so Im NOT calling for a cold, dry winter, just saying ;)

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Thanks for the breakdown Josh.

 

For Indy, Dec 1979 was pretty much snowless. 0.2" total for the month, with only 4 days having snow fall. January managed a 3.0" event on on the 30th, but the monthly total was still a disappointing 5.0". February nickel and dimed its way to a total of 14.5"...and 23 of the days had at least an inch of snow on the ground. March went back to boring with 1.6" on the 1st, and then 2.0" on the 12-13th. That was that.

 

Alas for this and future winter's interests, analogs are never perfect. Minnesota Meso is a pretty sharp weather enthusiast though, IMHO.  

 

Agree about Minnesota Meso. Hope he knows i was not trying to come down on him.

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Agree about Minnesota Meso. Hope he knows i was not trying to come down on him.

 

Right, yeah I wasn't trying to imply anyone was coming down on him. Just saying. A little friendly debate is part of the gig here, as we know.

 

As for yourself, I know you said you probably won't be doing an actual outlook this year...but you have any quick thoughts on the winter? I'd be interested in hearing anything you got. :) 

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