Winter 2014-15 Discussion

[snowstormcanuck]

I have heard SOOOO many people use that line, and I just cringe. It is NOT going to be colder and snowier than last winter here. Thats just not happening. Temp departure of nearly -8F for DJF and winter snowfall 53" above normal. A harsh winter may be on the way, but it will not be worse better than last year.

 

Fixed!

[michsnowfreak]

Fixed!

thank you for correcting my horrible typo! Lol

[Jonger]

John Dee has his seasonal outlook out. He seems to think the Nina is going to be a bigger factor this winter then most. I hope not but I'm kinda feeling the same way.

 

If the ONI stays below +0.7, we are fine....

 

I noticed that we also tend to have crappy winters with too strong of a la nina.

 

The best winters generally happen between +0.5 and -1.0.

 

We are probably looking at a +0.5ish, that's the low end threshold for an el nino.

[Spwild47]

Although I like what he does on a daily basis..agreed..very weak!

Consensus is for a colder and snowier winter than last? From whom, 13 year old FB wannabes? And man, that claim back in April...way to go out on a limb.

 

Regardless, a lame average Nino climo rip and read forecast by Mr. Dee. For those that wish to read it: http://www.johndee.com

[vortex]

In case no one has seen it yet.

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html

 

No surprises. 

[michsnowfreak]

I think this is the first time in 10 years I have seen John Dee call for a below normal snowfall season in the U.P. Also, last year he said that though a few big snowstorms may hit the southern Lakes, the snowpack will not be lasting . Plus, he admits seasonal forecasting is basically a crapshoot.

 

I dont know if last winter has anything to do with it, and I admit a previous winter has never been so fresh in my mind in Oct as it is this year, but the public REALLY seems interested in the forecasting of the coming winter. And there seem to be two die-hard camps. The harsh winter the almanac is predicting ("oh its going to be worse the last winter even") and the mild cpc winter (this winter is going to be mild, if you loved last year you'll hate this year").

 

To those in this region (there are a few) who think that this winter may exceed last in either cold or snow, I want to stress how anamalous both the cold and the snow BY THEMSELVES were, LET ALONE combined. A repeat is simply NOT happening. HOWEVER..I look at it this hypothetically....Detroit could have 30-40 inches LESS snow and temperatures could average 4-5 degrees WARMER than last winter, and it would STILL be considered a harsh/hard/severe winter (take your pick of descriptive words ). What Im most interested in, is should the hypothetical winter I described above come to fruition (snowfall of about 60" and temps 4 degrees below normal) is how I (or anyone else for that matter) will perceive it. Will last winter forever taint what I consider a "hard winter", or will the fact that the ground has been free of snow for 6 months (though it still seems so fresh in my mind) sort of erase that and start the slate clean, as it does every November?

In the other camp, the CPCs outlooks are total garbage and most in the weather community know that. The people that hug them are as reputable as those who hug the almanac.

[Hoosier]

The CPC outlooks are one of those that I check but they're just not particularly useful imo, especially when you find yourself in the "equal chances" category as they are painting for temperatures in much of the region for the upcoming winter.  Basically what it's saying is that there's an equal chance of DJF finishing -3F, average, +3... and so on.  I get that long range forecasting is really tough but that's just not very helpful when trying to determine the character of the winter.  I'd like to see them do away with the equal chances or just ditch the probability scheme altogether. 

[buckeye]

I recall last year the midatlantic crew was all but cancelling winter for their area up and into December, (even many of the 'knowledgeable' posters).  It turned on a dime and they ended up now-casting a rather severe winter.  

 

I don't recall what the early progs for our area were but I'm pretty sure we won't truly have a handle on what this winter will hold until around the 1st or 2nd week of December, and even then I'd give any forecast for the rest of the winter a 50/50 shot.

[Chicago WX]

Seasonal forecasting is pretty hard. And even in-season, the medium/long range seems to be an iffy proposition at times. Tough gig for those that do it for a living. 

 

I think the "best" call last winter was the forecaster from DVN that said, arrogantly to an extent, that the second half of Feb and all of March was going to be an abrupt turn to torch conditions for the region. And that California would receive long overdue drought denting rainfalls. Whoops.

[IWXwx]

You talking about this?

 

 

 

MAJOR REGIME CHANGE STARTING DAYS 5 INTO DAY 10 NORMALLY SUGGEST
MAJOR CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS AND PREDICTABILITY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ALONG WEST COAST
WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AT/BEYOND DAY 10 FOR CENTRAL US. THE
MAGNITUDE OF ENERGY CHANGES IN THE PACIFIC ARE AMONG THE HIGHEST
I HAVE SEEN OVER A 5 DAY PERIOD USING MULTIPLE SOURCES IN 35 YEARS
OF ANALYSIS. THE MEANING...THIS WILL NOT BE A MINOR CHANGE AND
SHOULD RESULT IN MAJOR TEMP/MOISTURE CHANGES LASTING MANY WEEKS
AND QUITE POSSIBLY MONTHS. TELECONNECTION WEIGHTING SUPPORTS MAY
RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SPRING...MUCH MORE TYPICAL THAN WHAT HAPPENED
LAST YEAR WHICH THIS AUTHOR CORRECTLY ASSESSED WOULD HAPPEN LAST
WINTER. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN KEY INDICES USED IN
TELECONNECTION TECHNIQUES NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS DUE TO THIS REGIME
CHANGE. THIS WILL BE QUITE EDUCATIONAL TO MONITOR. THE REGIME WE
ARE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR...FAVORABLY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
POSSIBLY 60S AT TIMES BY LATE IN THE MONTH...QUITE A CHANGE FROM
PAST 2 MONTHS. THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION WILL SEE
IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS MAY
CONTINUE BASED ON ANALOGS AND STATISTICAL WEIGHTING IN
TELECONNECTIONS LOCALLY USED BY THIS AUTHOR...FOR MUCH OF THE
EARLY TO MID SPRING...POSITIVE IMPACTS TO WESTERN DROUGHT...HIGH
PW/S WOULD SUPPORT FLOODING RISKS THOUGH.
 

By the way, while perusing last winter's thread, I came across this. I think weatherbo was being prophetic:

 

 

This area is def great, especially if you get off the main roads. it gets real backwoods fast. plenty of snow (average more than the Soo, and this year besting Marquette by nearly 50" and in some areas in Leelanau, 80"). It all becomes relative at some point tho. Suddenly a 100" of snow isn't as impressive as it would have been 2 years ago for me.
I also like that the population continues to decrease up here. Rarely see anything new being built locally unless it's a million dollar house up in the resorts of Charlevoix. All that said, if I had this move to do over again, I'd have gone north of the bridge.

 

 

 

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[Nickysixes]

You talking about this?

By the way, while perusing last winter's thread, I came across this. I think weatherbo was being prophetic:

Weatherbo waaaaay off. Builders cannot find enough help, especially Grand Travrtrse County... http://www.bestplaces.net/county/michigan/grand_traverse

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[weatherbo]

 

You talking about this?

By the way, while perusing last winter's thread, I came across this. I think weatherbo was being prophetic:

Weatherbo waaaaay off. Builders cannot find enough help, especially Grand Travrtrse County... http://www.bestplaces.net/county/michigan/grand_traverse

Community Forum Software by IP.Board

 

The hopping Traverse City was an hour from me... Ellsworth, East Jordan was/is depressed.  Antrim County isn't Grand Traverse.  I'd rather live in the real woods instead of the seasonal/touristy area like I did.  N Lower is amazing on a 100 levels, just not what I was looking for.  I'd drive 40 miles out of my way to avoid Traverse City.  Talk about a city that outgrew its road system!

[DAFF]

At the moment I would love to be up there for a Pasty or two. Just had some homemade chicken noodle soup and the North of the bridge phrase made me think of the Pasty. Nothing beats the home made Cornish ones which I grew up on. As for store bought the Northern Michigan ones are very good.

 

As for what is to come this winter ?? I'm very certain it will be a long one since summer seemed so short and blunted without much heat. By February people will be done with winter, no matter how hard or relaxed it is.  I do think this might be the winter with an biggen wrapped in a cold spell.

[Chicago WX]

You talking about this?

 

 

Bingo bango. Thanks.

 

And yet, he was so confident.

[mitchnick]

I recall last year the midatlantic crew was all but cancelling winter for their area up and into December, (even many of the 'knowledgeable' posters).  It turned on a dime and they ended up now-casting a rather severe winter.  

 

I don't recall what the early progs for our area were but I'm pretty sure we won't truly have a handle on what this winter will hold until around the 1st or 2nd week of December, and even then I'd give any forecast for the rest of the winter a 50/50 shot.

I certainly didn't Buckeye.

In fact, I never cancel winter here in the MA.....which only makes me wrong 80-82% of the time. 

But it's all worth it for those accidental years like last year. 

[Harry]

Seasonal forecasting is pretty hard. And even in-season, the medium/long range seems to be an iffy proposition at times. Tough gig for those that do it for a living. 

 

I think the "best" call last winter was the forecaster from DVN that said, arrogantly to an extent, that the second half of Feb and all of March was going to be an abrupt turn to torch conditions for the region. And that California would receive long overdue drought denting rainfalls. Whoops.

 

That was one of the most asinine calls i have ever seen.

 

I recall last year the midatlantic crew was all but cancelling winter for their area up and into December, (even many of the 'knowledgeable' posters).  It turned on a dime and they ended up now-casting a rather severe winter.  

 

I don't recall what the early progs for our area were but I'm pretty sure we won't truly have a handle on what this winter will hold until around the 1st or 2nd week of December, and even then I'd give any forecast for the rest of the winter a 50/50 shot.

 

I remember that.. That OPI tripped up a few on these forums.

 

SOME had a good handle a bit before winter while others fell flat.

[Nickysixes]

Sometimes I have to wait through 2 traffic light cycles, only during Cherry Festival though:) Otherwise, yes, it is outgrowing the road system, not to mention, very slow to repair them. Driving along Grandview Parkway, you'd swear you were in a third world country. Roafds for the most part are in despicable condition throughout the county. They do EVERYTHING on the cheap. But, I live in the middle of Old Mission Peninsula which is different than the rest of the area:)

The hopping Traverse City was an hour from me... Ellsworth, East Jordan was/is depressed.  Antrim County isn't Grand Traverse.  I'd rather live in the real woods instead of the seasonal/touristy area like I did.  N Lower is amazing on a 100 levels, just not what I was looking for.  I'd drive 40 miles out of my way to avoid Traverse City.  Talk about a city that outgrew its road system!

[A-L-E-K]

Do we have that dvn call saved in a post somewhere?

[IWXwx]

Do we have that dvn call saved in a post somewhere?

 

I found it in the Feb disco thread yesterday and I posted it earlier in this thread:

 

Quote

 

MAJOR REGIME CHANGE STARTING DAYS 5 INTO DAY 10 NORMALLY SUGGEST

MAJOR CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS AND PREDICTABILITY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ALONG WEST COAST

WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AT/BEYOND DAY 10 FOR CENTRAL US. THE

MAGNITUDE OF ENERGY CHANGES IN THE PACIFIC ARE AMONG THE HIGHEST

I HAVE SEEN OVER A 5 DAY PERIOD USING MULTIPLE SOURCES IN 35 YEARS

OF ANALYSIS. THE MEANING...THIS WILL NOT BE A MINOR CHANGE AND

SHOULD RESULT IN MAJOR TEMP/MOISTURE CHANGES LASTING MANY WEEKS

AND QUITE POSSIBLY MONTHS. TELECONNECTION WEIGHTING SUPPORTS MAY

RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SPRING...MUCH MORE TYPICAL THAN WHAT HAPPENED

LAST YEAR WHICH THIS AUTHOR CORRECTLY ASSESSED WOULD HAPPEN LAST

WINTER. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN KEY INDICES USED IN

TELECONNECTION TECHNIQUES NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS DUE TO THIS REGIME

CHANGE. THIS WILL BE QUITE EDUCATIONAL TO MONITOR. THE REGIME WE

ARE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR...FAVORABLY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND

POSSIBLY 60S AT TIMES BY LATE IN THE MONTH...QUITE A CHANGE FROM

PAST 2 MONTHS. THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION WILL SEE

IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS MAY

CONTINUE BASED ON ANALOGS AND STATISTICAL WEIGHTING IN

TELECONNECTIONS LOCALLY USED BY THIS AUTHOR...FOR MUCH OF THE

EARLY TO MID SPRING...POSITIVE IMPACTS TO WESTERN DROUGHT...HIGH

PW/S WOULD SUPPORT FLOODING RISKS THOUGH.

[A-L-E-K]

thanks.

 

 

that really is the best.

[michsnowfreak]

What on earth would make DVN make such a bold call? Even if they werent laughingly wrong like they were..not a wise move!

[Jonger]

What on earth would make DVN make such a bold call? Even if they werent laughingly wrong like they were..not a wise move!

 

I remember reading that the day it came out and wondered if they were looking at an old page, as if they hadn't cleared their browser cache from March 2012.

[wisconsinwx]

If it wasn't for the fact that he bragged about getting the previous spring pattern right it wouldn't have been that laughable a post, but adding that in takes the cake.

[Spwild47]

180 hr snow extent change looking juicy south of 60N....

[BuffaloWeather]

When does the annual snowfall contest start Nov 1st?

[Chicago WX]

When does the annual snowfall contest start Nov 1st?

 

Yep. Open for entries now. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44702-2014-15-lakesohio-valley-snowfall-contest/

[Chicago WX]

For your pleasure, D to the T's 2014-15 winter forecast maps.

 

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/763010177079576

[Gilbertfly]

Can't top getting 3 month forcasts on precipitable water values for California via DVN...lol

The trend remains normal/below normal temps on average...gonna ride it until that pattern shakes...clippers and LE seem to be fitting the mold this fall somewhat...albeit at higher lattitudes for the clippers for now obv...'13/'14 part 2 ish imo...perhaps a little softer on the crazy frigid stuff and snow totals...fwiw

Either way i'm pullin' for a cyclone dump...

[OHweather]

I think that the -QBO, combined with the extensive snow cover advancement over Eurasia this month, which suggest a -AO, combined with what will likely be a weak El Nino suggests that we'll have a lot to track this winter across the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of the US. The El Nino suggests that we won't see Dateline ridging this winter that dumps cold into central Canada, but probably ridging closer to the west coast. This probably isn't good for areas farther north and west in our subforum as it would probably put mean troughing over the Great Lakes or NE US this winter. The factors pointing to a -AO suggest that we'll have cold air to potentially work with this winter, and the El Nino suggests an active sub tropical jet (at least moreso than the last few winters). The El Nino will probably be weak, so that climo doesn't kill winter for this entire subforum by any stretch, and the potential -AO suggests the country won't be consistently flooded with warmth as a whole, but I'd say odds favor more active weather closer to the southern and eastern fringes of this subforum (due to the mean troughing being located farther east than last winter, the -AO potentially forcing cold into the US and forcing the storm track a bit farther south, and Nino climo favoring a ridge over western N. America, and an active subtropical jet, which suggests best action will be in the southern and eastern US).

 

I'm not a big fan of strictly using analogs, just because there are so many factors that go into long range forecasting nowadays that it's hard to find multiple years in which everything reasonably matches what you expect for the upcoming year you're forecasting for, but when I put together my winter outlook a week or so ago the winter of 1979-80 came up a few different times...for a +PDO, essentially weak Nino (ENSO region 3.4 had four tri-monthly periods come in at a +0.5C anomaly, so just short), and negative but rising QBO during the winter. That winter was variable, with the NE US being very cold in December and the west being warm...January sort of flipped, it was very cold in the NW and warm in the SE US, and then February saw a large western US ridge and deep eastern US trough. I'm not sure if we'll see a similar progression this year, because October of 1979 saw a modest +AO (November was negative), and December of that winter had a pretty good +AO. It wouldn't shock me if we saw a -AO develop sooner than January this winter based on the decent -AO that has persisted for October and per ensembles may try to persist into November, and what seems like many signs strongly pointing to a -AO winter.

 

So I guess my main concern for this winter will be the potential for suppression, especially when (or "if" I should probably say) a good -AO develops. I don't mind suppression because that probably helps my quaint little corner in SE Ohio, but that doesn't help out a lot of the rest of the Great Lakes region. A trough over the Lakes or NE with some clippers probably isn't bad for lake effect belts, and even though the lakes are running cold I doubt they freeze enough to shut things off until very late in the winter if at all unless we see some really cold air like last winter (except for Erie), so I don't think this is all bad news, but we'll see what happens!

[Harry]

I think that the -QBO, combined with the extensive snow cover advancement over Eurasia this month, which suggest a -AO, combined with what will likely be a weak El Nino suggests that we'll have a lot to track this winter across the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of the US. The El Nino suggests that we won't see Dateline ridging this winter that dumps cold into central Canada, but probably ridging closer to the west coast. This probably isn't good for areas farther north and west in our subforum as it would probably put mean troughing over the Great Lakes or NE US this winter. The factors pointing to a -AO suggest that we'll have cold air to potentially work with this winter, and the El Nino suggests an active sub tropical jet (at least moreso than the last few winters). The El Nino will probably be weak, so that climo doesn't kill winter for this entire subforum by any stretch, and the potential -AO suggests the country won't be consistently flooded with warmth as a whole, but I'd say odds favor more active weather closer to the southern and eastern fringes of this subforum (due to the mean troughing being located farther east than last winter, the -AO potentially forcing cold into the US and forcing the storm track a bit farther south, and Nino climo favoring a ridge over western N. America, and an active subtropical jet, which suggests best action will be in the southern and eastern US).

 

I'm not a big fan of strictly using analogs, just because there are so many factors that go into long range forecasting nowadays that it's hard to find multiple years in which everything reasonably matches what you expect for the upcoming year you're forecasting for, but when I put together my winter outlook a week or so ago the winter of 1979-80 came up a few different times...for a +PDO, essentially weak Nino (ENSO region 3.4 had four tri-monthly periods come in at a +0.5C anomaly, so just short), and negative but rising QBO during the winter. That winter was variable, with the NE US being very cold in December and the west being warm...January sort of flipped, it was very cold in the NW and warm in the SE US, and then February saw a large western US ridge and deep eastern US trough. I'm not sure if we'll see a similar progression this year, because October of 1979 saw a modest +AO (November was negative), and December of that winter had a pretty good +AO. It wouldn't shock me if we saw a -AO develop sooner than January this winter based on the decent -AO that has persisted for October and per ensembles may try to persist into November, and what seems like many signs strongly pointing to a -AO winter.

 

So I guess my main concern for this winter will be the potential for suppression, especially when (or "if" I should probably say) a good -AO develops. I don't mind suppression because that probably helps my quaint little corner in SE Ohio, but that doesn't help out a lot of the rest of the Great Lakes region. A trough over the Lakes or NE with some clippers probably isn't bad for lake effect belts, and even though the lakes are running cold I doubt they freeze enough to shut things off until very late in the winter if at all unless we see some really cold air like last winter (except for Erie), so I don't think this is all bad news, but we'll see what happens!

 

 

I think some of you are getting caught up a bit too much in the snowcover stuff as we saw last year. There is reasons why the snow cover stuff failed last year and those SAME reasons apply this year. See the EPO for a good start and those north pac SSTs. Typically the EPO ridge ( -EPO ) IS centered further west then the -ao/-nao as we saw last winter but is close enough that as we saw last winter the AO ended near neutral vs the insanely positive that the snowcover stuff had predicted. We get that same -EPO going again you can be sure the AO/NAO wont be all that different either and this has a decent chance of happening again based on what the EPO has been doing and those north pac SSTs.

 

What drove alot of 79-80 was we had a VERY dry fall especially here in the lakes.

 

vs..

 

Also note that other winters that featured a similar pattern ( 79-80 ) also had a similar fall in this region ( GL )and thus precip way below normal. see 76-77.. btw.. I am using weak nino years using the prior ONI version. The new one is totally useless. This all changes a bit when we get a mod/strong nino and thus a ONI of 1.0+!

 

Now i am not saying we wont see any suppression but i do suspect what we do have will be alot closer to last winter then say a pattern like 79-80 or 02-03 for that matter. JMHO