Harry Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 I like 79-80 a bit. October was cool then it switched in November to mostly warm outside a few shots, until mid-late January. The last 40% of that winter was brutal though. I would rather have a winter that featured muddled cold but quite a few snowstorms. That solar max ( 79-80 was solar max ) was stronger then this by a bit, enso was neutral that followed a neutral and back to back weak nino's which leaves some doubt about 79-80. Has the QBO going for it. Summer pattern was not bad but it has diverged a bit this month especially with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 There is a twitter post that links to a webpage title TIL, I think it is the Italian group, calculating projected OPI in real time...it shows strongly negative AO so far..it uses observations plus GFS forecast.... The monitoring page of the “October pattern index” (OPI) is presented. The OPI index represents a analytic synthesis of the October hemispheric pattern at 500 hPa, and shows from previous studies quite a high correlation (r ≈ 0.9) with the winter mean Arctic Oscillation Index (DJF AO); this implies that the lower the OPI index is in October (negative values) and the higher will be the probability to have a weak polar vortex during the following winter. Therefore the OPI index could be a valid support tool in the seasonal forecasting of the winter season. The OPI index is calculated through a dedicated software modeling elaborating the 31 daily hemispheric October at 500 hPa. This monitoring page is updated automatically with every run of the global forecast model GFS (Global Forecast System), except the 18:00z run. The software analyzes the previous consolidated daily charts plus 10 forecast charts as given by the GFS model. For example on the 15th of October, the software calculates the OPI index based on the 15 consolidated daily charts (1-15 October) adding 10 forecast charts as given by the GFS model (16- 25 October). The definitive OPI index will be available only at the end of October, when the software will be able to elaborate all the 31 daily consolidated charts of the month. During the month the index will gradually tend to the final value starting to be reliable past the half of the month, when the consolidated charts number will overtake the forecast charts number. Finally, at the beginning of November, the official seasonal forecast for the winter 2014-2015 will be released based on the final OPI value and on the recent developments of this research whose results have been discussed and analyzed so far with Prof. Judah Cohen (Director of Seasonal Forecasting at AER) and the Italian Air Force Lt. Col. Guido Guidi. OPI monitoring page link: http://app.til.it/opi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I wouldn't mind the same moisture amounts that we saw last year, however the cold was terrible. I mean that early January cold snap was brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Today's OPI... By mid month should settle in around a number that predicts DJF AO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Attacment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 OPI at -2.13 with 5 days data and 10 days prediction via GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Can't post but the GFS 120 hr for Eurasia has about 70% of the area between 60N and 50N filling in with snow cover over the next 5 days.. Will have to watch the dailies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Here's another reason it'll be a cold winter, it's already cold as hell in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Almost the entire North Pacific is above normal - another reason! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Admittedly I don't get to AW forums often. But when I do I find the discussions on here are entertaining and educational. And it seems appropriate that I make a return in this forum and topic. The atmosphere is complex. I attempt to simplify it by tracking natural cycles. What is happening right now will recur in a similar fashion in a determinant amount of time. I do this for about 50 locations in the CONUS. Mainly the Midwest. A little more information can be found here. The forecasts can be found here. Seems Chicago could have an epic January in regard to snow. 100% experimental with moments of entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 The new North America Multi Model Ensemble forecast for Dec-Feb has basically the entire subforum near to slightly above normal (-.25 to +.5 C). Looks like the NMME is still being biased by the warmth on the CFSv2, which has consistently been way overdone with the strength of the El Niño. But even the CFS only has a forecast anomaly of .5 to 1 C for the subforum. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 That persistent troughing in the N Pacific is going to do some work on the current +PDO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 The new North America Multi Model Ensemble forecast for Dec-Feb has basically the entire subforum near to slightly above normal (-.25 to +.5 C). Looks like the NMME is still being biased by the warmth on the CFSv2, which has consistently been way overdone with the strength of the El Niño. But even the CFS only has a forecast anomaly of .5 to 1 C for the subforum. Sent from my SM-G900V Euro monthlies ( just came out today ) on the other hand has a bit of a se ridge for Dec and near/slightly below normal temps ( -EPO? ) for Jan & Feb and even March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Euro monthlies ( just came out today ) on the other hand has a bit of a se ridge for Dec and near/slightly below normal temps ( -EPO? ) for Jan & Feb and even March. Sounds like the region is in or near the storm track for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Euro monthlies ( just came out today ) on the other hand has a bit of a se ridge for Dec and near/slightly below normal temps ( -EPO? ) for Jan & Feb and even March. Wouldn't be surprised if there's a consistently -EPO again given the continued presence of the much above normal warm pool in the GOA/northeastern Pacific. Several models also decidedly trended colder for JFM, especially the Feb - March portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised if there's a consistently -EPO again given the continued presence of the much above normal warm pool in the GOA/northeastern Pacific. Several models also decidedly trended colder for JFM, especially the Feb - March portion. The temp maps look almost to how last winter rolled with the above normal temps from Ohio south and east and colder/bn to the nw in Dec to more bn for the region as a whole and or MW to eastcoast and warmer west in Jan/Feb. Pretty wild. With March it has the coldest departures/bn in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 OPI continues to plunge -3.85.... With 9 days data and 10 days GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 OPI continues to plunge -3.85.... With 9 days data and 10 days GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 OPI at -2.7.... Also Eurasian SCE equator ward of 60N about 5x normal ...typhoon related snowstorm hit Nepal...with 15 days hard data and 10 days GFS this is looking pretty good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Updated JMA Monthlies valid today have an 07-08 look(+NAO/AO,-EPO,RNA). Weirdly nina like after a very different look in its september update(+PNA,-AO,-NAO with trough axis off the EC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Updated JMA Monthlies valid today have an 07-08 look(+NAO/AO,-EPO,RNA). Weirdly nina like after a very different look in its september update(+PNA,-AO,-NAO with trough axis off the EC) df7nmc.png Very Nina looking indeed!! Intriguing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 John Dee has his seasonal outlook out. He seems to think the Nina is going to be a bigger factor this winter then most. I hope not but I'm kinda feeling the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 While the consensus of most other winter outlooks is for an even colder and snowier winter than last, I felt pretty comfortable back in April thinking that areas of the upper Midwest that saw the coldest Jan-March (pink and dark blue shading in figure 1) on record were not going to repeat that task again this coming winter. Those types of weather anomalies on a seasonal scale only happen every 15-20 years or more. Consensus is for a colder and snowier winter than last? From whom, 13 year old FB wannabes? And man, that claim back in April...way to go out on a limb. Regardless, a lame average Nino climo rip and read forecast by Mr. Dee. For those that wish to read it: http://www.johndee.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 It would be hard to achieve a more harsher winter than last imo. I will say though harsh winters seem to be grouped together in pairs or more - like the late 70s. Weak El Nino's a lot of times bring pretty cold air masses into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 If you guys want to root for a cold winter, don't look at the latest CFSv2 monthly or seasonal temp forecast! The CFSv2 has changed its tune for Dec-Jan in the last few weeks though (forecasts are made once per 10 days.) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Sea.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 If you guys want to root for a cold winter, don't look at the latest CFSv2 monthly or seasonal temp forecast! The CFSv2 has changed its tune for Dec-Jan in the last few weeks though (forecasts are made once per 10 days.) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Sea.html Copy and paste Nino maps. Worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Copy and paste Nino maps. Worthless. Yeah, at this point I don't even know why they put out these maps, they are so bad and they don't factor in anything other than ENSO. I mean look at last year's maps compared to reality, they busted the hardest out of anyone especially at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The ONI index has to be at least +0.7 before our winters begin to trend poorly, we aren't going to hit +0.7... Might struggle to hit +0.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 If you guys want to root for a cold winter, don't look at the latest CFSv2 monthly or seasonal temp forecast! The CFSv2 has changed its tune for Dec-Jan in the last few weeks though (forecasts are made once per 10 days.) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Sea.html I get these several times a day on WxBell. They are very variable from one run to the next (4x per day) but during the past week or so, they have been all over the place, more so than usual. I'd say that as a whole, the CFS is pretty useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Consensus is for a colder and snowier winter than last? From whom, 13 year old FB wannabes? And man, that claim back in April...way to go out on a limb. Regardless, a lame average Nino climo rip and read forecast by Mr. Dee. For those that wish to read it: http://www.johndee.com I have heard SOOOO many people use that line, and I just cringe. It is NOT going to be colder and snowier than last winter here. Thats just not happening. Temp departure of nearly -8F for DJF and winter snowfall 53" above normal. A harsh winter may be on the way, but it will not be worse than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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