michsnowfreak Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Both almanacs are out...and they are both forecasting another severe winter . Take it for a grain of salt obviously, but a little reminder...last year when winter outlooks were released, Farmers Almanac called for a severe winter with well below normal temps and well above normal snowfall, while CPC had its annual "above normal temps" and I believe "equal chances" for precipitation. We all know who won that http://www.freep.com/article/20140824/NEWS07/308240131/farmers-almanac-nasty-winter-polar-vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 I don't get why anybody was confused why arctic penetrations into North America happened. Lack of blocking, declining phase of sun acitivity created a stagnate pattern. Globally in the North most areas weren't that cold and Russia was historically warm. Basically the "mirror mirror" version of 2001-2, staring at each other 12 years apart.at the time you kept thinking the cold pattern was going to break and it never would lol. I dont see where anyone is saying they are confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 That looks different than the latest outlook from CPC, which has everyone's favorite "equal chances" for most of the region. off04_temp.gif CPC maps beyond 1 month default to above normal. Last winter had the usual CPC maps showing above normal, they busted harder than a cinder block dropped from 1000 feet up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 I don't get why anybody was confused why arctic penetrations into North America happened. Lack of blocking, declining phase of sun acitivity created a stagnate pattern. Globally in the North most areas weren't that cold and Russia was historically warm. Basically the "mirror mirror" version of 2001-2, staring at each other 12 years apart. January & February was WAY below normal in Russia and the United States. It wasn't a mirror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 I can hear the sleet every time someone posts something to do with that storm. Had 21" bullseye IMBY that storm...check my avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 January & February was WAY below normal in Russia and the United States. It wasn't a mirror. True..all of Russia was VERY warm in December 2013....but Siberia/Central Russia was -2c to -4c for Jan and Feb 2014... https://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/news_members/documents/winter_2014_Russia.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Outside eastern, pole wide Russia, Russia wasn't that cold, not near as memorable as 2006 in that region. 2001-2 was very cold in parts of Eurasia and very warm in North America. 2002-3 was another winter that had the "pinch" in Jan/Feb though that trough was further east most of the time despite weak blocking, probably due to El Nino. No one should lower themselves and say they can't figure out why something happens. There is always a answer. After your horrendous attempts at forecasting last winter you've lost any and all cred. I mean it's one thing to miss a forecast, it's quite another to deny reality, (which is what you were doing all last winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 I can hear the sleet every time someone posts something to do with that storm. That storm was about an hour short of being a historic icestorm here. Rapid accretion of ice cut short by a quick rise in temps. Winds also picked up with the temps creeping above freezing and I'll never forget the sound of the ice coming off the trees and crashing against the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 eh I don't see your point. I was just commenting on the stupidity of the quote. The only area I "lost reality" was mid-late January, I thought the thaw would last longer(so did many other people), when it didn't, that set the stage for a colder than what the upper levels would generate into late February. Most cold winters aren't necessarily completely driven by the jet stream. This is what Bastardi learned in 2001-2. They must build up and snowcover must build. The lack of blocking and a persistant block over the pacific led to a cold winter. Once a decade winter in that regime. You were calling for warmth repeatedly last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 http://farmersalmanac.com/weather/2014/08/24/2015-us-winter-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 http://farmersalmanac.com/weather/2014/08/24/2015-us-winter-forecast/ Wtf is stinging? That doesn't quantify temperatures at all. Same with crisp, and apparently frigid is colder than bitter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 25, 2014 Author Share Posted August 25, 2014 Wtf is stinging? That doesn't quantify temperatures at all. Same with crisp, and apparently frigid is colder than bitter... That's the problem I have with them. Do they actually put out any numbers? Also they apparently like to keep their formula super secret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 That's the problem I have with them. Do they actually put out any numbers? Also they apparently like to keep their formula super secret. They actually do have a decent forecast detail-wise, but they dont publish that online, they want you to buy the copy (they usually do like 1 month out for free online, but at that point we are more interest in model trends and stuff). I will say this...I have gotten that almanac for many years (there lots of good stuff in there, not just weather, and its only like 6 or 7 bucks)....and they are very often spot on with their seasonal forecasts in terms of trends. Not so much the week to week weather, but even then they have hit some storms dead on, and its startling that they did so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 My fellow Detroiters may disagree with my views on this storm...but...it wasnt a terrible storm here. It WAS a bust, that in itself sucked, but we did have brief whiteouts, a clap of thunder, and finished with 8-12" in metro-Detroit (closer to 6" near the OH border and 12"+ in the thumb). About half of that fell in a brief period the late evening of the 1st, but the other half was long duration dispersed. So again, the storm failed to meet expectations here, but there was still a lot of snow on the ground, 3 days later was our infamous 4-6" of mostly sunny, and the winter as whole was phenomenal, my favorite winter until 2013-14. Its actually amazing that in a span of just 4 years, we had two winters like that. 2010-11 saw 162% of average snowfall and 170% of average snowcover days..and 2013-14 saw 222% of average snowfall and 204% of average snowcover days. I can remember many busts far greater than GHD from the 1990s, and in winters without as many storms. What really hurt with GHD (versus the other storms that busted) is that it as poised for several DAYS to be an historic storm for Detroit until the models made a very last minute NW shift within 24-48 hours of the storm's arrival. New Years 2008 would definitely be a runner up. Not because it was necessarily expected to be an historic storm, but because of the intense 2-4" per hour snowfall rates & TSSN that sat over the same areas for several hours. We also missed this one because of a last minute NW shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 They actually do have a decent forecast detail-wise, but they dont publish that online, they want you to buy the copy (they usually do like 1 month out for free online, but at that point we are more interest in model trends and stuff). I will say this...I have gotten that almanac for many years (there lots of good stuff in there, not just weather, and its only like 6 or 7 bucks)....and they are very often spot on with their seasonal forecasts in terms of trends. Not so much the week to week weather, but even then they have hit some storms dead on, and its startling that they did so. Even I can take a 10 state region and a 5 day period and make a prediction of a storm or something and be right 75% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 lolz to CPC seasonal outlooks...and "stinging". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 lolz to CPC seasonal outlooks...and "stinging". cold and wet everywhere from the weenie almanac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I'm betting most will see a decent Winter as long as it isn't compared to last year. Think the smart way to go is cold, but not the prolonged type we saw last year. At any rate, I will be living nw of Negaunee in the Huron Mountains in about 30 days. My house here sold and I have an accepted offer up there. No less than 200" for the past 12 years, so a good Winter I should see! http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/?n=seasonsnowfallmaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 I'm betting most will see a decent Winter as long as it isn't compared to last year. Think the smart way to go is cold, but not the prolonged type we saw last year. At any rate, I will be living nw of Negaunee in the Huron Mountains in about 30 days. My house here sold and I have an accepted offer up there. No less than 200" for the past 12 years, so a good Winter I should see! http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/?n=seasonsnowfallmaps wow bo....you really are in for a winter now! Negaunee itself is a huge snow magnet. MQT is in negaunee. Often times you will see huge differences between there and Marquette the city. There's a spotter in Marquette...and last winter I remember something like a 15" depth in marquette and 35" at MQT. And you will be in the mountains! Cant wait for pics.And you made a great point....whatever the winter is in '14-15, try to compare it to normal, not '13-14, or else you will be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 I'm betting most will see a decent Winter as long as it isn't compared to last year. Think the smart way to go is cold, but not the prolonged type we saw last year. At any rate, I will be living nw of Negaunee in the Huron Mountains in about 30 days. My house here sold and I have an accepted offer up there. No less than 200" for the past 12 years, so a good Winter I should see! http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/?n=seasonsnowfallmaps You sure move around. Congrats I think and hopefully you get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 I will be living my first winter in Milwaukee. Being from central MN, I'm not sure how comparable the snowfall amounts will be but I am suspecting a little less in MKE. However, I am closer to Michigan's UP at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 I'm betting most will see a decent Winter as long as it isn't compared to last year. Think the smart way to go is cold, but not the prolonged type we saw last year. At any rate, I will be living nw of Negaunee in the Huron Mountains in about 30 days. My house here sold and I have an accepted offer up there. No less than 200" for the past 12 years, so a good Winter I should see! http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/?n=seasonsnowfallmaps Wow. What do you do for a living, might I ask? I'll be snowmobiling past your place several times this winter, that area is a snow magnet, I should post pics. There is a snowmobile trail (technically hundreds) that runs just south of Marquette and once you start moving NW of the city, the snow increases rapidly. Here is a video shot by my riding partner, I was probably 25 feet behind him. You can occasionally hear me speaking on the intercom. This was before it started to pile up, only mid January here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2014 Author Share Posted August 28, 2014 I will be living my first winter in Milwaukee. Being from central MN, I'm not sure how comparable the snowfall amounts will be but I am suspecting a little less in MKE. However, I am closer to Michigan's UP at least... Pretty sure MKE averages north of 50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 I'm betting most will see a decent Winter as long as it isn't compared to last year. Think the smart way to go is cold, but not the prolonged type we saw last year. At any rate, I will be living nw of Negaunee in the Huron Mountains in about 30 days. My house here sold and I have an accepted offer up there. No less than 200" for the past 12 years, so a good Winter I should see! http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/?n=seasonsnowfallmaps Good luck with the move bo. As a snowmobiler who spends time up that way I'm looking forward to your posts this winter from up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Wow. What do you do for a living, might I ask? I'll be snowmobiling past your place several times this winter, that area is a snow magnet, I should post pics. There is a snowmobile trail (technically hundreds) that runs just south of Marquette and once you start moving NW of the city, the snow increases rapidly. Here is a video shot by my riding partner, I was probably 25 feet behind him. You can occasionally hear me speaking on the intercom. This was before it started to pile up, only mid January here. Awesome video! It really is amazing up there and so remote. I was a lifeguard for the East Jordan school system here, but I don't know what I will do up there yet. BTW... I'll be about 15 miles nw of MQT weather office. Good luck with the move bo. As a snowmobiler who spends time up that way I'm looking forward to your posts this winter from up there. I should move the last week of September, so will have several weeks to explore the trails and woods with my dirt bike before the snow starts. lots of pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 cold and wet everywhere from the weenie almanac http://farmersalmanac.com/weather/2014/08/24/2015-us-winter-forecast/ It would be pretty wild to pull off below normal almost everywhere. Although this season did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 BTW... I'll be about 15 miles nw of MQT weather office. I've always wanted to explore that area... are you going to be off 510? Very remote. Be sure to check out the McCormick Wilderness, the Yellow Dog Plains, Northwestern Rd and AAA Rd. When are you going to make your first attempt to sneak onto Huron Mountain Club land? What can one do for work up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 I've always wanted to explore that area... are you going to be off 510? Very remote. Be sure to check out the McCormick Wilderness, the Yellow Dog Plains, Northwestern Rd and AAA Rd. When are you going to make your first attempt to sneak onto Huron Mountain Club land? What can one do for work up there? I'll live between 510 and the Dead River storage basin. The good thing is I'm only 25 minutes from Marquette if I decide to work. The other good thing is I don't necessarily have to. But life can get boring without a job. I'm not familiar with the Huron Mountain club land??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 to be honest..last winter was bad, but it was manageable. the best part was that it was sunny almost every day...which helps a lot (mentally). so let it come again! bring it on! Saukville loves it...the colder the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 I'll live between 510 and the Dead River storage basin. The good thing is I'm only 25 minutes from Marquette if I decide to work. The other good thing is I don't necessarily have to. But life can get boring without a job. I'm not familiar with the Huron Mountain club land??? That's a snowy area definitely! I was in that area a few times. Very secluded wilderness area. Yeah the land that's west of Big Bay is owned by that club, you have to know someone or be a member to get in there! Unless you want to sneak in! There's a road leading back in there with a guard post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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