snowstormcanuck Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 I'd agree with August being warmer. The cool of this past July was pretty impressive in these parts. Coolest since 2009 at YYZ. Guessing you beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Coolest since 2009 at YYZ. Guessing you beat that. Yeah. Coolest July on record here. Beating some records this year in the LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Way too early to draw any conclusions from - but - looks like things are changing in the Pacific. Have to keep our eye on it the next month or so and see if this continues. Maybe, just maybe, a pattern change at the last minute before winter sets in. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml Looks like a swing toward neutral conditions now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Looks like a swing toward neutral conditions now. Most assumed by now wed be seeing signs of a roaring super Nino...instead...looks like weak Nino at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 For the last 8 months, this has been the case:) I'm wondering if this is "The New Normal" for a while, torching pacific and trough over the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Winter will be long,hard and cold with repetitive 2-5 inch events. Enjoy your early fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Winter will be long,hard and cold with repetitive 2-5 inch events. Enjoy your early fall. good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 17, 2014 Author Share Posted August 17, 2014 Chad Evans recently released his patented 1 year outlook for the LAF area. Anyway, for winter, he's going with colder than average temps and average to above average snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Chad Evans recently released his patented 1 year outlook for the LAF area. Anyway, for winter, he's going with colder than average temps and average to above average snow. That seems to be the theme this year for this upcoming winter, and with the warm pool over the northern Pacific still in place it isn't a bad call at this junction, though things could certainly change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Looking back at pics from 2013-14 makes it seem even more amazing than when it was actually happening (and I knew it was amazing when it was happening). So my call for winter 2014-15? A winter with of less severity than 2013-14, though to what extent less unknown http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43803-2013-14-wintercold-season-thread-archive/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 The troughing pattern has been relentless since November, there is no signs of it stopping. We could be looking at a similar winter as last winter, probably slightly milder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I have no idea what's gonna happen this winter, but here's what needs to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 I have no idea what's gonna happen this winter, but here's what needs to happen. I can hear the sleet every time someone posts something to do with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I can hear the sleet every time someone posts something to do with that storm. That was one my two most disappointing winter storms ever. Of course both of them resulted in cyclone getting raked...so clearly, our loss is his gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 That was one my two most disappointing winter storms ever. Of course both of them resulted in cyclone getting raked...so clearly, our loss is his gain. Unfortunately that's true for the big dogs. At least we line up pretty well when it comes to the clipper train, like in '09 or '10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 Unfortunately that's true for the big dogs. At least we line up pretty well when it comes to the clipper train, like in '09 or '10. How much did you get in the January '99 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Unfortunately that's true for the big dogs. At least we line up pretty well when it comes to the clipper train, like in '09 or '10. Yep. Clipper action is really the only time we both party...like it's December 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 How much did you get in the January '99 storm? IIRC it was somewhere around 15". I didn't keep my own records back then. Was living in the QC back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 IIRC it was somewhere around 15". I didn't keep my own records back then. Was living in the QC back then. There's a rare case where both our areas did very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 There's a rare case where both our areas did very well. As we've discussed before, Jan 1999 has to be one of the rarest of them all. All the snow that fell to the east track...just doesn't happen too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 That was one my two most disappointing winter storms ever. Of course both of them resulted in cyclone getting raked...so clearly, our loss is his gain. I'll take Jan 5th again. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 I can hear the sleet every time someone posts something to do with that storm. My fellow Detroiters may disagree with my views on this storm...but...it wasnt a terrible storm here. It WAS a bust, that in itself sucked, but we did have brief whiteouts, a clap of thunder, and finished with 8-12" in metro-Detroit (closer to 6" near the OH border and 12"+ in the thumb). About half of that fell in a brief period the late evening of the 1st, but the other half was long duration dispersed. So again, the storm failed to meet expectations here, but there was still a lot of snow on the ground, 3 days later was our infamous 4-6" of mostly sunny, and the winter as whole was phenomenal, my favorite winter until 2013-14. Its actually amazing that in a span of just 4 years, we had two winters like that. 2010-11 saw 162% of average snowfall and 170% of average snowcover days..and 2013-14 saw 222% of average snowfall and 204% of average snowcover days. I can remember many busts far greater than GHD from the 1990s, and in winters without as many storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 I'll take Jan 5th again. Thanks! Most definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Most definitely. Me too. The post-storm scenes were among the most surreal I have ever seen. Massive snowbanks, snow depth ranged from basically 14-18" with higher drifts, the roads caked in white ice, and an Alaska-type sunset as the wind chills neared -50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Nino is coming back. It appears a very strong kelvin wave is crossing the Pacific. We don't want it to strong where it breaks the -EPO down and replaces it with a nasty vortex. According to GAWX the Euro has a continued -SOI index the rest of August. So this region of warmth should continue to press Eastward and strengthen. Hopefully it stays a bit central based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 We all know nino is coming back....the fact that it looks like it will be weak is actually GOOD news for most here. Earlier prognostications of super strong are clearly dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Smart money is on cooler than normal, hopefully not as cold as last year though. Wouldn't be surprised to see the clipper train early and often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Nino is coming back. It appears a very strong kelvin wave is crossing the Pacific. We don't want it to strong where it breaks the -EPO down and replaces it with a nasty vortex. According to GAWX the Euro has a continued -SOI index the rest of August. So this region of warmth should continue to press Eastward and strengthen. Hopefully it stays a bit central based. Outside a few along i-95 most ( including models.. see enso thread on this ) are now going with a weak nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/long-term-weather-may-shift-heading-into-colder-months Saw this on Skilling's FB page. It's the NOAA outlook for what it's worth. I know last year it showed a warm bias as well and we all know what happened. Is the current thinking on the nino still favoring a "modoki" event? Or is the current KW occurring shifting this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/long-term-weather-may-shift-heading-into-colder-months Saw this on Skilling's FB page. It's the NOAA outlook for what it's worth. I know last year it showed a warm bias as well and we all know what happened. Is the current thinking on the nino still favoring a "modoki" event? Or is the current KW occurring shifting this? That looks different than the latest outlook from CPC, which has everyone's favorite "equal chances" for most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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