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Winter 2014-15 Discussion


Hoosier

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Way too early to draw any conclusions from - but - looks like things are changing in the Pacific.  Have to keep our eye on it the next month or so and see if this continues.  Maybe, just maybe, a pattern change at the last minute before winter sets in.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

 

Looks like a swing toward neutral conditions now. 

 

sstaanim.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...

Chad Evans recently released his patented 1 year outlook for the LAF area. Anyway, for winter, he's going with colder than average temps and average to above average snow.

That seems to be the theme this year for this upcoming winter, and with the warm pool over the northern Pacific still in place it isn't a bad call at this junction, though things could certainly change.
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Looking back at pics from 2013-14 makes it seem even more amazing than when it was actually happening (and I knew it was amazing when it was happening). So my call for winter 2014-15? A winter with of less severity than 2013-14, though to what extent less unknown :lol:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43803-2013-14-wintercold-season-thread-archive/

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I can hear the sleet every time someone posts something to do with that storm. 

My fellow Detroiters may disagree with my views on this storm...but...it wasnt a terrible storm here. It WAS a bust, that in itself sucked, but we did have brief whiteouts, a clap of thunder, and finished with 8-12" in metro-Detroit (closer to 6" near the OH border and 12"+ in the thumb). About half of that fell in a brief period the late evening of the 1st, but the other half was long duration dispersed. So again, the storm failed to meet expectations here, but there was still a lot of snow on the ground, 3 days later was our infamous 4-6" of mostly sunny, and the winter as whole was phenomenal, my favorite winter until 2013-14. Its actually amazing that in a span of just 4 years, we had two winters like that. 2010-11 saw 162% of average snowfall and 170% of average snowcover days..and 2013-14 saw 222% of average snowfall and 204% of average snowcover days. I can remember many busts far greater than GHD from the 1990s, and in winters without as many storms.

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Nino is coming back.  It appears a very strong kelvin wave is crossing the Pacific.

 

We don't want it to strong where it breaks the -EPO down and replaces it with a nasty vortex.

 

 

According to GAWX the Euro has a continued -SOI index the rest of August.  So this region of warmth should continue to press Eastward and strengthen.

 

Hopefully it stays a bit central based.

wkteq_xz.gif

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Nino is coming back.  It appears a very strong kelvin wave is crossing the Pacific.

 

We don't want it to strong where it breaks the -EPO down and replaces it with a nasty vortex.

 

 

According to GAWX the Euro has a continued -SOI index the rest of August.  So this region of warmth should continue to press Eastward and strengthen.

 

Hopefully it stays a bit central based.

wkteq_xz.gif

 

 

Outside a few along i-95 most ( including models.. see enso thread on this ) are now going with a weak nino.

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http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/long-term-weather-may-shift-heading-into-colder-months Saw this on Skilling's FB page. It's the NOAA outlook for what it's worth. I know last year it showed a warm bias as well and we all know what happened. Is the current thinking on the nino still favoring a "modoki" event? Or is the current KW occurring shifting this?

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http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/long-term-weather-may-shift-heading-into-colder-months Saw this on Skilling's FB page. It's the NOAA outlook for what it's worth. I know last year it showed a warm bias as well and we all know what happened. Is the current thinking on the nino still favoring a "modoki" event? Or is the current KW occurring shifting this?

 

 

That looks different than the latest outlook from CPC, which has everyone's favorite "equal chances" for most of the region.

 

 

post-14-0-85637200-1408920482_thumb.gif

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