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Winter 2014-15 Discussion


Hoosier

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It was brought to my attention that I started last year's thread on July 25 so here goes.

 

Way early but here are what a couple of the seasonal models are showing for DJF as of now.  First up, CFS v2

 

 

post-14-0-70958400-1406306848_thumb.gif

 

 

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JAMSTEC

 

 

post-14-0-63483600-1406306879_thumb.gif

 

 

post-14-0-33797600-1406306897_thumb.gif

 

 

 

One of the storylines so far has been the Nino not really getting off the ground.  We may still end up with an official Nino during the winter months but anything in the moderate/strong range looks like it's off the table.  There are no absolutes but imo this factor alone somewhat tilts the odds away from a mild winter.  Of course there are plenty of other factors that come into play that really aren't knowable yet.

 

Winter 2014-15 is all about reasonable expectations.  Last winter was a banner winter and then some for a lot of us.  It's not impossible to get something like that again but it's obviously a low probability in any given year.   

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I am optimistic for next winter insofar as we are unlikely to see as much bitter cold with no big storms as we did locally.  It won't have as much of a winter feel, that's pretty likely anyway, but hopefully this time we get one or two biggies (8"+ winter storms).

 

The odds of repeating that winter are decent as long as we are stuck in the pattern, but the odds are still slim.

 

I got my once in 25 year big dog out of the way..... It was more impressive considering I had snowpack before it even hit though.

 

I spent an obscene amount of money on snowmobiling last winter, another winter like that will bankrupt me.

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NW flow is here to stay

 

cold is the way to go

 

this is my immediate knee jerk expectation regarding the coming winter....but it's all anecdotal based on the hangover from last winter and the unusual continuing bouts of cold through this summer so far.   But things can turn on a dime.  I remember thinking the winter following '11-'12 would be another torch and we were going to enter a period of above normal winters....oops.   

Variability and wild swings are the safe bet  :lol:

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Or this could happen...

 

82-83 was a really warm winter which followed a historic cold/snowy winter of 81-82 in SEMI. 

 

The odds of repeating that winter are decent as long as we are stuck in the pattern, but the odds are still slim.

 

I got my once in 25 year big dog out of the way..... It was more impressive considering I had snowpack before it even hit though.

 

I spent an obscene amount of money on snowmobiling last winter, another winter like that will bankrupt me.

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El Nino is almost dead, it's likely to be a weak el Nino, which favors a good winter. Unless we get a strong el Nino or strong la Nina, I don't think it changes much.

 

Weak solar activity and weak nino will help the cause for sure ( offers us the best shot of a repeat of last winter )  but as usual it is not the end all.

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For HERE....I would rank the most extreme "most awesome winter" to "most nightmare winter" years as follows....these are all the years where the one winter was 10+ degrees warmer than the previous winter, but I ranked them in accordance to shock factor.

 

Winter.....DJF Temp....Snowfall....1"+ Snwcvr days.....winter ranks as of 2014....

1880-81.....21.8F........93.6"...........NA......................2nd snowiest winter.........13th coldest winter

1881-82.....36.9F........13.2"...........NA......................2nd least snowiest winter...1st warmest winter

 

1981-82.....21.9F........74.0"...........89 days..............4th snowiest winter......,....16th coldest winter

1982-83.....32.5F........20.0"...........15 days..............11th least snowiest winter...7th warmest winter

 

1917-18.....19.7F........38.4"...........65 days..............no snowfall ranking............4th coldest winter

1918-19.....32.3F........15.2"...........12 days..............4th least snowiest winter....9th warmest winter

 

1919-20.....20.8F........43.5"...........81 days..............no snowfall ranking............7th coldest winter

1920-21.....31.2F........36.1"...........23 days..............no snowfall ranking..........13th warmest winter

 

Luckily, none of the above are particularly good analogs :lol:

 

I will admit after last winter ended I was preparing/bracing for a terrible winter of 2014-15. A combination of being WAY overdue/karma...and of course all the hype of the super nino that may shame 1982-83 or 1997-98.

 

However...now, nino-wise things are looking much better, and this NW flow pattern does not seem to want to die. Couple that with the very noticeable increase in snowfall the last 15 and especially 10 years....and Im thinking 2014-15 might not be so bad after all. The last 10 years have averaged 15" above the long term average, a feat even more impressive than when the 1940s averaged 12" BELOW the longterm average (not to mention back then the 1930s gave hint to decreasing snowfall...the 1990s gave no hint of the coming increase). I will say, however, that I just cannot see us ever seeing a repeat locally of 2013-14. It pretty much smashed most snowfall and snowdepth records to smitherines.

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For HERE....I would rank the most extreme "most awesome winter" to "most nightmare winter" years as follows....these are all the years where the one winter was 10+ degrees warmer than the previous winter, but I ranked them in accordance to shock factor.

 

Winter.....DJF Temp....Snowfall....1"+ Snwcvr days.....winter ranks as of 2014....

1880-81.....21.8F........93.6"...........NA......................2nd snowiest winter.........13th coldest winter

1881-82.....36.9F........13.2"...........NA......................2nd least snowiest winter...1st warmest winter

 

1981-82.....21.9F........74.0"...........89 days..............4th snowiest winter......,....16th coldest winter

1982-83.....32.5F........20.0"...........15 days..............11th least snowiest winter...7th warmest winter

 

1917-18.....19.7F........38.4"...........65 days..............no snowfall ranking............4th coldest winter

1918-19.....32.3F........15.2"...........12 days..............4th least snowiest winter....9th warmest winter

 

1919-20.....20.8F........43.5"...........81 days..............no snowfall ranking............7th coldest winter

1920-21.....31.2F........36.1"...........23 days..............no snowfall ranking..........13th warmest winter

 

Luckily, none of the above are particularly good analogs :lol:

 

I will admit after last winter ended I was preparing/bracing for a terrible winter of 2014-15. A combination of being WAY overdue/karma...and of course all the hype of the super nino that may shame 1982-83 or 1997-98.

 

However...now, nino-wise things are looking much better, and this NW flow pattern does not seem to want to die. Couple that with the very noticeable increase in snowfall the last 15 and especially 10 years....and Im thinking 2014-15 might not be so bad after all. I will say, however, that I just cannot see us ever seeing a repeat locally of 2013-14. It pretty much smashed most snowfall and snowdepth records to smitherines.

 

 

That 1880-81 to 1881-82 flip...dang.

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That 1880-81 to 1881-82 flip...dang.

yup. Its something I have had a great interest in since I first discovered weather records, and its only been magnified this year as 2013-14 was chasing and then took over the king year of 1880-81. Whats interesting is that despite the often vague records of those early years (many stations didnt even have records yet), there is plenty in local newspaper archives that point to how how extraordinarily severe 1880-81 was and how warm and winterless 1881-82 was. A few examples from a local paper (Im paraphrasing as these papers are stored in a container somewhere in my closet :lol:), one from Feb 1881 commented how the housewife has nowhere to pile snow out her doorstep as she cannot reach the top of the snow anymore. And one from Dec 1881 commented that boating on the river is finer than in mid-summer.

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ENSO strength seems to be very much TBD for this upcoming winter. Some of the earlier calls for a Super Nino don't look so hot right now. But, here's a couple of charts of season snowfall totals for 20 Midwestern cities for all the Ninos and warm neutrals...since 1949-50, as defined by CPC (ONI centered on DJF).

 

Above average seasons highlighted in green. Snowfall averages for each city are from 1949-50 to 2013-14. 

 

 

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I'll be in London, Ontario this winter. Right in the heart (well, not really, but still close enough) of the Huron snowbelt. BRING ON THE NW FLOW!!!

 

Welcome back! It's got to much better than what you experienced last winter.

 

I'll actually be in London on Sunday. Well, just passing through. Taking the wife to see the Falls via Windsor, London, and Hamilton. Kind of doing the circle tour of Erie.

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Welcome back! It's got to much better than what you experienced last winter.

 

I'll actually be in London on Sunday. Well, just passing through. Taking the wife to see the Falls via Windsor, London, and Hamilton. Kind of doing the circle tour of Erie.

 

Thanks IWXwx. First winter in a belt. I'm really excited for my first mutli-day high impact LES event.

 

Best bet if you're doing a circle tour of Lk Erie is to return to FWA via I-90. Trying to return west through Ontario would be a problem...

 

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/07/31/toronto-bound-lanes-of-qew-shut-down-due-to-dump-truck-collision-on-skyway-bridge/

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Nice, dude. Hope the summer has been a good one for you.

 

Hey Tim. Same sentiment to you.

 

As much as I'm a winter fanatic this coolish summer has been somewhat disappointing. I actually don't mind a few stretches of high heat and humidity. Current thinking is that this is going to be one of those odd summers where August averages warmer than July.

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Hey Tim. Same sentiment to you.

 

As much as I'm a winter fanatic this coolish summer has been somewhat disappointing. I actually don't mind a few stretches of high heat and humidity. Current thinking is that this is going to be one of those odd summers where August averages warmer than July.

 

I'd agree with August being warmer. The cool of this past July was pretty impressive in these parts.

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