August 2014 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Enter your forecasts for our nine contest sites, in anomaly form relative to the 1981-2010 normals, for these locations:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

Note, as explained in July thread, the late penalties have been reworked so that all months now follow the same lenient "weekend start" format, and that will continue to the end of the year.

 

It means that from 06z Friday August 1st to 12z Saturday August 2nd, entries are penalized at the rate of 1% per 2h interval or fraction. This results in a 15% reduction of scores by mid-day Saturday (z time) ... After 12z August 2nd, penalties increase to 1% per hour.

 

With a weekend soon after the deadline, make sure you enter on time, there won't be any further modification of penalties. It looks as though the annual scoring race is tightening up a bit in July, in both divisions, and I would say almost any regular participant could still finish at or near the top with a good set of forecasts from now to December. Good luck everyone.

 

(note also, updated reports in July thread on the summer max contest)

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+0.3 ___+0.4 ____+0.6 ___ -0.9 ___+0.2 ____-0.4 _______+0.6 ____+0.1 ____+0.6

 

Revised  07-30

[Quixotic1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

0.0___+0.2___+0.3_____-0.8___-1.2___-1.0____-1.4____+0.2__0.0

[uncle W]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH_

-1.4...........-2.0.........-2.1.........-1.6.........-1.5.........-0.5

[Stebo]

DCA -2.1

NYC -2.3

BOS -3.0

ORD -3.7

ATL -1.4

IAH -0.7

DEN +1.2

PHX +0.8

SEA +1.9

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

-0.5      -1.0      -1.0            -1.2      -0.3      -0.4        1.9        1.3      1.7

[Mallow]

EDIT: 22:58 EDT, 7/30

 

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

-1.4  ____-1.4 ____-0.5 ___ -2.9 ___-1.8  ____-1.1 _______-0.6  ____+2.7 ____+1.8

[Tom]

DCA: -0.8 NYC: -1.1 BOS: -1.1 ORD: -1.5 ATL: -0.2 IAH: +0.4 DEN: +0.3 PHX: +1.1 SEA: +0.8

[ksammut]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-2.9___-3.1____-3.3_____-3.4___-2.0____-1.1___-2.8___-.08___+.03

[donsutherland1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+0.2___+0.4___+0.5_____-0.6___+0.3___-0.5____-1.5____-0.8__+1.6

[Isotherm]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+0.3    +0.6     +0.9        -0.5      0.0       -0.8        -1.7      -0.3     +1.9

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

-1.8    -0.7     -1.0        -4.0      -0.1     -0.6       -2.3     -1.5    +1.6

 

[Roger Smith]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-0.5 __ -0.5 __ -0.7 ____ -1.3 __ -1.0 __ +0.1 ____ 0.0 __ +1.1 __ +3.8

[wxallannj]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+1.8     +1.5     +0.9         +1.1    +1.0     +0.5      -0.2       +0.5    -0.5   

[metalicwx366]

DCA: +1.2

NYC: +1.1

BOS: +1.0

ORD: -0.8

ATL: +1.1

IAH: +1.6

DEN: +0.8

PHX: +1.2

SEA: +1.6

[bkviking]

DCA +0.7

NYC +0.9

BOS +0.3

ORD -2.8

ATL -1.9

IAH -0.9

DEN +0.8

PHX +0.5

SEA +1.6

[WEATHER53]

DCA:-0.9

NYC:-1.5

BOS:-0.3

ORD:-1.5

ATL:-0.5

IAH:+0.5

 

[blazess556]

DCA -1.8

NYC -2.0

BOS -2.4

ORD -3.3

ATL -1.2

IAH -0.5

DEN +1.3

PHX +0.9

SEA +2.0

[wxdude64]

DCA  -0.4

NYC  -0.5

BOS   0.0

ORD  -2.2

ATL   -1.1

IAH   -0.4

DEN  +0.7

PHX  +1.1

SEA  +1.0

[OHweather]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-0.2___-0.4____-0.5____-1.0____+0.1____-0.5____+1.2____+2.0____-0.5

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA  -1.3

NYC  -0.3

BOS   -0.3

ORD  -2.0

ATL   -0.8

IAH   -0.9

DEN  -1.9

PHX  +1.2

SEA  +1.9

[SACRUS]

Been a while

 

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+1.0 ___+1.4 ____+1.8 ___ -0.2 ___+0.8 ____+0.0 _______+1.5 ____+0.7 ____+2.0

[N. OF PIKE]

penalize me

 

DCA 0.0  NYC -.4 BOS -.5 ORD -1.2 ATL 0.5 IAH -0.5 DEN 1.5 PHX 0.5 SEA 1.8

[Roger Smith]

Forecasts for August 2014

 

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

wxallannj _________________ +1.8 __ +1.5 __ +0.9 __ +1.1 __ +1.0 __ +0.5 __ --0.2 __ +0.5 __ --0.5

 

Damage in Tolland _ (-10%) __+1.5 __ +0.8 __ +1.1 __ --1.7 __ --2.0 __ --0.9 __ +2.0 __ +1.9 __ +1.3  

 

metalicwx366 ______________ +1.2 __ +1.1 __ +1.0 __ --0.8 __ +1.1 __ +1.6 __ +0.8 __ +1.2 __ +1.6

 

SACRUS __________________ +1.0  __ +1.4 __ +1.8  __ --0.2 __+0.8 ___ 0.0 __ +1.5 __ +0.7 __ +2.0

 

bkviking ___________________ +0.7 __+0.9 __ +0.3 __ --2.8 __ --1.9 __ --0.9 __ +0.8 __ +0.5 __ +1.6

 

Isotherm __________________ +0.3 __+0.6 __ +0.9 __ --0.5 ___ 0.0 __ --0.8 __ --1.7 __ --0.3 __ +1.9

 

hudsonvalley21 _____________ +0.3 __+0.4 __ +0.6 __ --0.9 __ +0.2 __ --0.4 __+0.6 __ +0.1 __ +0.6

 

donsutherland.1 ____________ +0.2 __ +0.4 __ +0.5 __ --0.6 __ +0.3 __ --0.5 __ --1.5 __ --0.8 __ +1.6

 

goobagooba ________________ 0.0 __ +0.2 __ +0.3 __ --0.8 __ --1.2 __ --1.0 __ --1.4 __ +0.2 __ 0.0

 

 

Normal _____________________0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 _____ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0

 

 

cpick79 ____ (-5%) ___________ 0.0 __ --0.4 __ --0.5 __ --1.2 __ +0.5 __ --0.5 __ +1.5 __ +0.5 __ +1.8

 

OHweather _________________ --0.2 __ --0.4 __ --0.5 __  --1.0 __ +0.1 __ --0.5 __ +1.2 __ +2.0 __ --0.5

 

 

Consensus __________________--0.4 __ --0.4 __ --0.3 __ --1.5 __ --0.5 __ --0.5 __ +0.6 __ +0.7 __ +1.6

 

 

wxdude64 _________________ --0.4 __ --0.5 ___ 0.0 ___ --2.2 __ --1.1 __ --0.4 __ +0.7 __ +1.1 __ +1.0

 

Roger Smith _______________ --0.5 __ --0.5 __ --0.7 ___ --1.3 __ --1.0 __ +0.1 ___ 0.0 __ +1.1 __ +3.8

 

SD _______________________ --0.5 __ --1.0 __ --1.0 __ --1.2 __ --0.3 __ --0.4 __ +1.9 __ +1.3 __ +1.7

 

Tom ______________________ --0.8 __ --1.1 __ --1.1 __ --1.5 __ --0.2 __ +0.4 __ +0.3 __ +1.1 __ +0.8

 

Tenman Johnson ___________-- 0.9 __ --1.5 __ --0.3 __ --1.5 __ --0.5 __ +0.5

 

Midlo Snow Maker __________ --1.3 __ --0.3 __ --0.3 __ --2.0 __ --0.8 __ --0.9 __ --1.9 __ +1.2 __ +1.9

 

Mallow ___________________ --1.4 __ --1.4 __ --0.5 __ --2.9 __ --1.8 __ --1.1 __ --0.6 __ +2.7 __ +1.8

 

Uncle W ___________________-- 1.4 __ --2.0 __ --2.1 __ --1.6 __ --1.5 __ --0.5

 

RodneyS __________________ --1.8 __ --0.7 __ --1.0 __ --4.0 __ --0.1 __ --0.6 __--2.3 __ --1.5 __ +1.6

 

blazess556 ________________ -- 1.8 __ --2.0 __ --2.4 __ --3.3 __ --1.2 __ --0.5 __ +1.3 __ +0.9 __ +2.0

 

stebo _____________________--2.1 __ --2.3 __ --3.0 __ --3.7 __ --1.4 __ --0.7 __ +1.2 __ +0.8 __ +1.9

 

ksammut __________________ --2.9 __ --3.1 __ --3.3 __ --3.4 __ --2.0 __ --1.1 __ --2.8 __ --0.8 __ +0.3

___________________________________________________________________

 

23 forecasters, welcome to new entrant Wxallannj and welcome back to SACRUS.  (Aug 17 edit, consensus values are slightly adjusted as I overlooked wxdude64's entry -- I have edited the following posts also).

 

The seasonal max contest will migrate over into this thread from July in a few days. Meanwhile, all scores are now updated over in the July thread.

 

Good luck this month ...

[Damage In Tolland]

Sorry I've been away on vacation..so I'd certainly hope there wouldn't be and appreciate no penalty.Thanks

 

DCA  +1.5
NYC  +0.8
BOS   +1.1
ORD  -1.7
ATL   -2.0
IAH   -0.9
DEN  +2.0  
PHX  +1.9
SEA  +1.3

[Roger Smith]

Damage, the penalties are at least rather relaxed now and everyone should note they have been adjusted back through months where they were larger, so that all penalties are now on an equal time basis. I cut you a 2% break here, course it's not your fault you were late but penalties are not meant to be punitive, just score-equalizing as any time advantage must be worth a few points. Maybe not many in a 31-day month but you know, what if the models catch a new trend on the 12z run of 2nd, that everyone else did not see? That's happened, and when it does happen, I think you can gain more points than the time penalty takes away. Anyway, hopefully one of two things will happen, you'll score high and win anyway, or you'll score low and lose very few points. One of those is no good so let's hope you score high, your forecast has some unique aspects and you can still win the month.

 

I am quite open to a contest-wide discussion (in December) about penalties, as in good as they are, too harsh, too lenient. For anyone who hasn't read my various posts recently, note that we are now on this schedule: 1% reduction of scores every 2 hours from 06z 1st to 12z 2nd, followed by 1% reductions every hour. What we should discuss is maybe the following: could there be a somewhat later deadline such as 15z first of month before any penalties are applied? could there be a slower progression for any part of the penalty time? or is the current regime good? does anyone think we should keep it more strict? ... one thing I want to avoid is different structures for different months based on weekends, holidays etc. Not everyone is on the same schedule but also, you never know when some event like Sandy might mess up an end of month. At the same time, I am involved in three of these contests here, in the UK and in Ireland, and all of them have this same sort of penalty structure, details vary but none of them tend to go on different schedules in different months. The differences are as follows -- one goes by 5% penalties on total points every half day but allows free entry on the first, and one has rather weak penalties but a cut-off at 00z 4th (you can't enter after that). That one is UK and the one that I don't score, in fact I've never totally understood how the penalties work there but they seem to bite at about 3-5 per cent a day.

 

What do you folks think? At this point, I have to say that I find the current system to be fair and not overly punitive. The problem is, about 75% of contest entrants tend to be almost always "on time" and you find that the late entrants tend to be somewhat multi-case at least to the extent of two or three times a year. I would guess that the regular on-time majority don't want to encourage late entries by being too lenient.

 

On another front, please note, if you don't see me around much for the next two weeks, I'm on holiday and likely off the net most of the time. If anyone wants to post anomalies in the August thread, make sure they are for DCA and NYC not IAD, JFK or LGA. The other ones are less likely to be confused. Tip, the IAH data are easier to find from the map than the "data by state" menu because TX takes a long time to load and keeps crashing (for me at least). Oh, well there's another station to note, IAH not HOU.

 

If anyone wants to see the "seasonal max" standings, they are updated whenever possible over in the July thread. I will bring that table over here if there are significant changes.

[Roger Smith]

Anomalies through five days mainly cool, ORD n/n and SEA very warm.

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

--1.5 _ --1.1 _ --2.9 ____ +0.1 _ --2.5 _ --4.5 _____ --3.0 _ --2.5 _ +5.1

 

new feature that I will run with these updates (for now, 5th, 10th, 15th or thereabouts)

 

Consensus score for these values

 

78 __ 86 __ 48 __ (212) __ 68 __ 60 __ 20 _ (148, 360) __ 28 __ 36 __ 30 __ (094)

 

Normal score for these values

 

70 __ 78 __ 42 __ (190) __ 98 __ 50 __ 10 _ (158,348) __ 40 __ 50 __ 00 __ (90)

 

High scores not incl above (not one individual, for field)

 

98 __100 __ 98 __ (296) __ 94 __ 90 __ 32 __ (216,512) __ 96 __ 80 __ 74 __ (250)

[Roger Smith]

Anomalies through ten days still rather cool, ORD n/n and SEA very warm.

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

--1.1 _ --0.6 _ --1.4 ____ --0.1 _ --0.9 _ --1.8 _____ --2.8 _ --1.0 _ +3.6

 

new feature that I will run with these updates (for now, 5th, 10th, 15th or thereabouts)

 

Consensus score for these values

 

86 __ 96 __ 78 __ (260) __ 72 __ 92 __ 74 _ (238, 498) __ 32 __ 66 __ 60 __ (158)

 

Normal score for these values

 

78 __ 88 __ 72 __ (238) __ 98 __ 82 __ 64 _ (244,482) __ 44 __ 80 __ 28 __ (152)

 

High scores not incl above (not one individual, for field), high totals are now for forecasters (lower than total of three or six sites)

 

96 __ 98 __ 94 __ (276) __ 98 __ 98 __ 84 _ (254,506) __100__ 96 __ 96 __ (240)

 

The seasonal max chart has been edited over in the July thread as ATL reached 95 in the past few days. Will leave it over there for the time being. I will now be off-line to the 18th or 19th.

[wxdude64]

When you get back could you add me into the monthly game chart? 

[Roger Smith]

(sorry wxdude64, fixed that and the associated problems with consensus)

 

Anomalies through 16 days now all quite cool, except SEA continues very warm.

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

--1.8 _ --1.6 _ --1.8 ____ --1.7 _ --1.8 _ --0.9 _____ --1.6 _ --1.4 _ +3.8

 

new feature that I will run with these updates (for now, 5th, 10th, 15th or thereabouts)

 

Consensus score for these values

 

72 __ 76 __ 70 __ (218) __ 96 __ 74 __ 92 _ (262, 480) __ 56 __ 58 __ 56 __ (170)

 

Normal score for these values

 

64 __ 68 __ 64 __ (196) __ 66 __ 64 __ 82 _ (212,408) __ 68 __ 72 __ 24 __ (164)

 

Max scores for any forecaster:

 

100 _ 98 __ 94 __ (280) __ 96 __100 __100 _ (266,528) __ 98 __ 98 __100 __ (238)

 

Have adjusted the seasonal max table, SEA hit 96 F last Monday 11th. Otherwise I don't see any new seasonal max temps during the past week. That table remains over in the July thread for the time being.