Hoosier Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Moderate risk was dropped at 1630z, however the 10% hatched tornado area remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Moderate Risk is gone and the slight risk on west side was moved more east Sent from my SM-G900V Edit: looks like Hoosier beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Models have been absolutely horrible with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 New Tornado Warning for Estill and Lee Counties in KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 271652Z - 271815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS OH. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT INITIATED IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH WRN OH. UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED...BUT STORMS MAY SOON BECOME SFC BASED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 80S. A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY IS SUPPORTING 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER...VWPS INDICATE SOME VEERING BETWEEN THE SFC AND 2 KM WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2. AS STORMS BECOME SFC BASED...THEY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. ..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Models have been absolutely horrible with this. yes they have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1154 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN LOWER MICONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 271654Z - 271800ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF NEAR-SVR HAIL...STRONG WINDGUSTS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY ONGOING TSTMSACROSS NRN LOWER MI. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FARTHERS INTO S-CNTRL/SERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI THROUGHMID-AFTERNOON...WHERE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS A COUPLE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLSHAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN LOWER MI...INCLUDING ONE OVER CRAWFORDCOUNTY AND ANOTHER OVER OTSEGO COUNTY. THESE TSTMS ARE OCCURRINGNEAR/AHEAD OF A SFC LOW POSITIONED NEAR NRN LM...AND AN ATTENDANTSFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN LOWER MI. DESPITE SFC TEMPERATURESCURRENTLY NEAR 70 F...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECTINGEWD...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW S OF LS...ARE SUPPORTING ANINCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MLCAPEVALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER NRN LOWER MI. APX VWP DATA SHOWSLOCALLY BACKED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO WLY ABOVE 1 KMAGL...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE TO CONTINUESUPPORTING LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE LIKELY TO BENEAR-SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THESETHREATS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE WRN SHORE OF LH OVER THE NEXT COUPLEHRS.FARTHER S...INCLUDING S-CNTRL/SERN LOWER MI...ELEVATED SHOWERS AREONGOING...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING ARE OCCURRING. AN INCREASEIN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRSACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THEUPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS MOREVEERED/WLY...PRIMARY THREATS WILL LIKELY BE SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGEHAIL.CONVECTIVE TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS NRN LOWERMI...AND AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN TSTMS FARTHER S...WILL CONTINUE TOBE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LAT...LON 42938242 42268291 41848329 41878389 41848439 4193849443828524 44798521 45058543 45518500 45668482 4561841845298333 45048332 43978261 42938242 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Tornado watch out for W VA, E KY and E TN until 8 PM eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 50/20 tornado probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 There's definitely a lot of lightning with these storms, especially the storms in KY... http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 ESRH has increased into the 200-400 m2/s2 range in central KY with 50-60 kts of effective shear beginning to overlap the warm sector. Those discrete storms should intensify with mid 70s dewpoints available over the tornado watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Mt. Sterling, KY cell looking pretty interesting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Severe T'storm Watch is in effect for most of Lower MI, Northern Indiana and portions of NW Ohio until 9 PM ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Also, a couple tornado watches are in effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 New Tornado Watch for the rest of Ohio, east central KY, east central IN, western PA, northern WV, and extreme western MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 That cell riding the Alcona and Oscoda County line has decent rotation with it. It looks like it might be slightly right turning which if it does, could bring it close to Tawas City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Looks like the TW cell in Kentucky is anticyclonic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Nice circulation east of Mount Vernon, KY, just north of Livingston. Also tor warned storm near Jamestown, KY looks very strong. Both in sig tornado parameter of 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 tornado warning for Bay City, MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised to see more tornadic t'storms across MI as the low pressure center deepens, improving directional shear. I'm a bit surprised the SPC/WFOs didn't go with a Tornado Watch versus a Severe T'storm Watch, given the warnings that have been issued and the rotation storms have shown so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 While a short window, the LAF crew may get in on some brief action after all... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0139 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL IL...CNTRL INDCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 271839Z - 271945ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN TSTMDEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER E-CNTRL IL...AND A PRE-FRONTALSFC TROUGH OVER CNTRL IND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDITIONALLYFAVORABLE FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...AND A WW IS POSSIBLEIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERCOLATING CU FIELDALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS POSITIONED FROM JUST W OFVPZ TO NEAR DEC AS OF 1830Z. ADDITIONAL CU WAS DEVELOPING INVOF AWEAK SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT S/W OF THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA. THESE AREASARE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT...AS AN UPPER JET ISNOSING INTO NRN IL AND W-CNTRL IND THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LIMITTSTM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONGHEATING AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS YIELDINGMLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. LONG AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHSENHANCED BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE CONDITIONALLYFAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE TOVERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDINGPOSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SURROUNDS TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ANDEVENING...BUT TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED...ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LAT...LON 38808770 39198797 40148781 40438737 40448694 4031858340078554 39578543 38888578 38718684 38808770 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Storm now warned.. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT... AT 250 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SETTLE STORE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... CHESTNUTBURG AND SEXTONS CREEK AROUND 300 PM EDT. FELTY AND THOMAS AROUND 305 PM EDT. ONEIDA AND AMMIE AROUND 310 PM EDT. BRUTUS AND SPURLOCK AROUND 315 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HIGH KNOB...ALGER AND ERILINE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 ILN and TDAY radars showing rotation by West Liberty and Urbana OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 If it holds together, the IWX office could get hit with some 60 MPH winds from the t-storm warned cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 The urbana storm is tightening up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 ILN and TDAY radars showing rotation by West Liberty and Urbana OH Just went tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Funnel cloud with it. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH306 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...* UNTIL 330 PM EDT.* AT 303 PM EDT...A SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN SOUTHERNLOGAN...NORTHERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY. THE FUNNEL CLOUD COULDTOUCHDOWN AT ANY TIME. RADAR INDICATED THAT THIS DANGEROUS STORMWAS LOCATED NEAR WEST LIBERTY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...WEST LIBERTY...MARYSVILLE...IN ADDITION...LIPPINCOTT...ZANESFIELD...VALLEY HI...PICKRELLTOWN...KENNARD...MINGO...CABLE AND EAST LIBERTY ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THISDANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Tornado Warning for the Urbana storm. Impressive circulation showing on velocity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I would bet it's got a TOG by looking at dayton TDWR Edit: couplet dissipated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 TOR warned storm going toward my aunt's place in Linwood... anybody see a couplet? All I have is plain ol' NEXRAD. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI236 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...SOUTHERN BAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...* UNTIL 330 PM EDT* AT 234 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ATORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUTSHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGETO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE ISLIKELY.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...KAWKAWLIN AND LINWOOD AROUND 300 PM EDT.BAY CITY STATE RECREATION AREA AROUND 305 PM EDT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ASTURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OROUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.&&LAT...LON 4378 8392 4374 8394 4368 8391 4365 83864365 8381 4363 8377 4357 8417 4373 84164379 8393TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 256DEG 22KT 4363 8414TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDHAIL...1.75IN$SF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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