andyhb Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 That area that took the brunt of 3/2/12 in E KY/W WV (including Huntington and Charleston) and far southern OH looks volatile tomorrow on most of the models. That rain over E KY should move SE quickly once the stronger winds aloft begin to slide SE with the trough. I'm fairly sure there will be differential heating/outflow boundaries for mesoscale interaction left over, and the moisture with that rain may lead to overachieving dewpoints. Kind of interested to see how steep the mid level lapse rates become tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 New day 1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SWATHS OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. ..SYNOPSIS MUCH AS HAS BEEN INDICATE BY THE MODELS...AMPLIFICATION APPEARS UNDERWAY WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES...A CLOSED LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER NORTHERN CANADA...IS CURRENTLY TURNING SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...TO THE SOUTH OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX. AS THIS OCCURS...SEASONABLY STRONG /50-70 KT/ CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW /700-500 MB/ IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. AND AN INITIAL SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT LIKELY WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY 12Z MONDAY. WITH MOISTURE SEASONABLY HIGH BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...IN THE PRESENCE OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR. OTHERWISE...LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE IN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ..OHIO VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH STILL MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXTENT AND MODE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. THE WEAKENING LEAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE THAT EMERGED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MONSOONAL REGIME. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY MIDDAY...WHERE ASSOCIATED FORCING MAY SUPPORT RENEWED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ITS WAKE...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A TRAILING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE MAIN UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF THIS OCCURS...MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR...INCLUDING SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT THE BOUNDARY WOULD SEEM TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE CONTINUING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. AGAIN THIS LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION PRIOR TO MID AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..KERR/SMITH.. 07/27/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Seems the day 1 un-does what the 1730 day 2 did yesterday over parts of Eastern MI and northwestern OH which pegged some interest earlier. Tornado risk over southern OH, Ern KY, and parts of WV has me concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 HRRR is coming into range now. By 2 p.m. it's showing a large area of a Significant Tornado Parameter >4 across eastern Kentucky. An hour later, several impressive looking discrete cells fire across there and far southern Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Seems the day 1 un-does what the 1730 day 2 did yesterday over parts of Eastern MI and northwestern OH which pegged some interest earlier. Tornado risk over southern OH, Ern KY, and parts of WV has me concerned. And more as far as the bolded. We were at least in the slight risk area prior to the 1730z day 2 outlook, even with lower probs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 It is clear already just north of Dayton, OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 We have clear skies here, with just some haze... IWX is somewhat worried about the impact fog/stratus (upstream from here) will have on the extent of instability today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 The fog came back. If this tornado threat were over western ohio and eastern indiana it would be great to chase, but where it is, chasing is practically impossible with the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Moderate risk moved south and tornado threat is now hatched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 The fog came back. If this tornado threat were over western ohio and eastern indiana it would be great to chase, but where it is, chasing is practically impossible with the mountains. Stratus has moved in here, after clear skies all night and what looked to be a Sunny morning. So tired of this Summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 We had a thick fog move in followed by stratus. It's clear not far north so hopefully this doesn't last long. edit: not far north as in 10 miles north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 And more as far as the bolded. We were at least in the slight risk area prior to the 1730z day 2 outlook, even with lower probs... Funny enough, the 1230z update pushes the slight risk BACK over northwest OH, Srn MI, and even most of IN (albeit low probs). I'm kinda on edge of the 30% hail, but regardless, something to watch. I am pretty worried about the tornado potential over Ern KY and WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Moderate risk area looks like a mess right now. That remnant rainfall/convection hasn't gone anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Sun just came back (I'm going to jinx myself) at my location. The temp feels like It went up a few degrees and it's really humid to go along with it. If the rain doesn't clear out we may have 2 moderate risks bust in 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psumet Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Models don't seem to be handling this morning's convection very well. Still some extensive cloud cover in place across eastern KY with temps in the low 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Models don't seem to be handling this morning's convection very well. Still some extensive cloud cover in place across eastern KY with temps in the low 70s. Yea, I know it's early but convection continues to backbuild. Thus far, this is not materializing how I had hoped but still lots of day left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Models don't seem to be handling this morning's convection very well. Still some extensive cloud cover in place across eastern KY with temps in the low 70s. Wouldn't be overly surprised to see the moderate risk dropped at 1630z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Wouldn't be overly surprised to see the moderate risk dropped at 1630z. Meh, not sure about that one yet. While I do agree that the backbuilding crapvection is a problem, it's only just getting close to 11am. The HRRR run mentioned above has the discrete stuff starting around 3pm. I bet the main thing they'll be watching is whether or not this stuff can push off in the next hour or not. Even a couple hours of sun can do wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psumet Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Wouldn't be overly surprised to see the moderate risk dropped at 1630z. It looks like the severe threat is shifting more to the KY Cumberland River Valley near the TN border. They're at least getting a little more heating down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 It looks like the severe threat is shifting more to the Cumberland River Valley near the TN border. They're at least getting a little more heating down there. Central KY on that differential heating boundary could be a place to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I think this satellite image is interesting. You can pretty much see dual warm fronts and cold fronts, and dual shortwaves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I'd say pretty unlikely moderate stands on the next spc update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 First tornado warning of the day for Estill/Powell Counties in KY, got a supercell emerging out of the surrounding convection there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 529 WFUS53 KJKL 271606 TORJKL KYC065-197-271630- /O.NEW.KJKL.TO.W.0003.140727T1606Z-140727T1630Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1206 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... ESTILL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY... POWELL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 1230 PM EDT * AT 1205 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF HARRIS FERRY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... CRESSY AND IRON MOUND AROUND 1215 PM EDT. KIMBRELL AND SPOUT SPRINGS AROUND 1220 PM EDT. HARDWICK AND COTTAGE FURNACE AROUND 1225 PM EDT. FITCHBURG AND PITTS AROUND 1230 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SAM AND UNION HALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3790 8381 3781 8364 3771 8373 3767 8382 3764 8381 3761 8387 3754 8390 3758 8395 3758 8399 3766 8411 3775 8409 3779 8411 3780 8408 3782 8412 3785 8409 3783 8407 3785 8406 3784 8402 3787 8403 3793 8396 TIME...MOT...LOC 1606Z 312DEG 38KT 3789 8411 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.50IN $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Obviously some disagreement on the tornado warned storm from Louisville & Jackson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Getting some pathetic convective showers right now. Looking upstream, that will probably be the rule for the rest of the afternoon with a very weak cap still in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Obviously some disagreement on the tornado warned storm from Louisville & Jackson. Looks pretty messy on velocity and reflectivity suggests it might be outflow dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 A storm in MI just got tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I think that cell in northern michigan near grayling needs a tornado warning. Edit: And there it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Pretty decent rotation on a tornado warned storm up in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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