TheWeatherPimp Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 NWS Indianapolis already has severe wording in the grids for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Just catching up and noticing the rather significant svr potential for central IN and my neck of the woods for Saturday. Will likely be a very interesting day. IND AFD very focused as Hoosier indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Very good afternoon afd from IND...worth a read. "FINALLY...LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR...ESSENTIALLY NON-STOP AT TIMES WITHIN THE COMPLEX." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Very good afternoon afd from IND...worth a read. Mr Ryan---enough said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 25, 2014 Author Share Posted July 25, 2014 Fun with soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 ILX in their AFD mentioned this whole complex could back build throughout the night leading to possible flooding as another concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Fun with soundings Untitled.png Too bad there's -1 J/KG of CINH to put a cap on that powder keg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Something tells me that this MIGHT (although unlikely) be another derecho event. Not sure if it'll turn out that way, though. Could be rough for cities such as Peoria, Illinois and Indianapolis, Indiana. Which, a matter of fact, Peoria has escaped major severe weather so far this year. That could end tomorrow, though... EDIT: One really sad fact is that NWS Lincoln does not yet have SAILS installed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 So sometimes the 4km NAM nest is an overachiever, but that MCS it is simulating looks pretty mean as it tracks into Indiana. It looks like it wants to peak the MCS right around the Indianapolis area with 850mb winds of ~100 kts. The MCV is clearly depicted on its UH product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 26, 2014 Author Share Posted July 26, 2014 Moderate risk for a good chunk of IL/IN on the day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Moderate risk on new day 1. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...BUT THIS INCLUDES AT LEAST PARTS OF THE GREATER ST. LOUIS...INDIANAPOLIS...LOUISVILLE AND CINCINNATI METROPOLITAN AREAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE STORMS...SOME ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SWATHS OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...PERHAPS REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT. ..SYNOPSIS WHILE BLOCKING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT WITHIN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA...MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGH CENTER OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES...AND THE CLOSED LOW...NOW UNDERCUTTING THE CANADIAN HIGH...SHOULD DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD LINGERS WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONCERNING THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF AND 21Z NCEP SREF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT UPPER LOW/TROUGH PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE MAIN TRANSITION TO STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME PRECEDING IT. BENEATH A REMNANT PLUME OF VERY WARM AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THE FOCUS FOR THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY. WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG AN INITIAL SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOWER DUE TO STRONGER LINGERING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND WEAKER SHEAR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. ..MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEYS CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE CLARITY FOR THIS FORECAST...OFFERING A RATHER BROAD RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN THE NAM AND ECMWF...AMONG OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...SUGGESTING THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LOWER OHIO VALLEYS DURING THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE REALIZED. ALONG/NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF AN AXIS OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...MOISTENING BENEATH THE AXIS OF STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE CAPE...BEFORE INHIBITION GRADUALLY ERODES. PROBABLY AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...INITIATION OF STORMS MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO 21Z ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. INITIALLY DISCRETE...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS TORNADOES...BEFORE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATES INTO AN ORGANIZING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH MORE UNCERTAIN...AS INITIAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SPREAD TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPSTREAM IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT LEAST SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO THE PRODUCTION OF STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR/SMITH.. 07/26/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Day 2 moderate for Sunday as well. This is nasty looking, especially with the enhanced tornado potential on Sunday and likelihood for robust MCS development on both days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 D2 mod risk too for the OV with a much larger hatched area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 You just don't see intense s/w troughs with 70 kt mid level jet streaks dropping this far south in late July. Anomalous setup to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Just noticed, the southward drop on the D1 fits a bit more to the D2 outlook. Definetly a gnarly looking setup for the Ohio Valley on Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Good mention of the outflow generation in the D2/3 for Sunday. Increasing low level shear (which is already forecast to be sufficient for tornadoes) within this environment is simply asking for trouble. Moisture has been pretty easy to come by especially east of the MS River this year so I have little doubt that will be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 26, 2014 Author Share Posted July 26, 2014 Could be a good chasing opportunity for Stebo on his way home from the conference. Well, other than a lot of the terrain not being very favorable for chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I find this very interesting. Day 1...Approx 6.5 million peeps under moderate risk, 2.2 million under slight risk. Day two 3.2 Million under moderate risk, 98.5 million under slight risk. Adding them up quickly, roughly 110 Million under either a slight or moderate risk. While I believe it may have happened before, Has anyone seen this type of set up in late July??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Impressive outlook from the spc for both days...should be interesting to see how long cells can stay discrete tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I find this very interesting. Day 1...Approx 6.5 million peeps under moderate risk, 2.2 million under slight risk. Day two 3.2 Million under moderate risk, 98.5 million under slight risk. Adding them up quickly, roughly 110 Million under either a slight or moderate risk. While I believe it may have happened before, Has anyone seen this type of set up in late July??? There's over 22 million in the slight risk today. Honestly, with the region at risk, I'm coming up blank in terms of previous setups like this one at this time of year. NW flow events are nothing new this time of year, but rarely do you see a trough this strong basically smack dab in the middle of when the jet is usually weakest (and a death ridge dominating the upper level pattern over the central US). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 26, 2014 Author Share Posted July 26, 2014 I find this very interesting. Day 1...Approx 6.5 million peeps under moderate risk, 2.2 million under slight risk. Day two 3.2 Million under moderate risk, 98.5 million under slight risk. Adding them up quickly, roughly 110 Million under either a slight or moderate risk. While I believe it may have happened before, Has anyone seen this type of set up in late July??? I think you misplaced the decimal point there. It's showing 22 million in the day 1 slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I think you misplaced the decimal point there. It's showing 22 million in the day 1 slight risk. sorry should have had my glasses on...my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I think you misplaced the decimal point there. It's showing 22 million in the day 1 slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I think you misplaced the decimal point there. It's showing 22 million in the day 1 slight risk. At any rate, I would think this set up would be more common during late spring, early fall. But with the death ridge centered over the four corners region, and a very strong upper level low dropping in, it really does flatten out the ridge. While a north west flow is somewhat common like Andy said, the strength of the H5 low is very impressive indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 wouldn't mind being back down in champaign today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Some hailers this morning, slipping by to my southwest. 1" reported in Covington (Fountain County). Cell still warned as it passes to the west of Indy. Looks like most of the recent model guidance has tonight's action to the south of LAF. I guess I shouldn't be surprised by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 That's a nice supercell west of Indy, especially for this early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 New day 1 outlook. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA... ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB TO WRN WV ..SUMMARY SEVERE STORMS...SOME ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED RISK AREA SHOULD BE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WHERE ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE DAMAGING WIND RISK COULD REACH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. ..ERN NEB TO OH/KY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER SRN SK THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 60-90 KT MID-UPPER JET STREAK ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW. A SURFACE LOW REFLECTION OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM SE MB TO NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI...WHILE A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE TRANSLATES EWD FROM NE KS ACROSS NRN MO IN ADVANCE OF AN MCV OVER N CENTRAL KS. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-MID 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL EXPAND EWD TODAY ACROSS THE CORN BELT FROM ERN NEB TO IL/INDIANA...BENEATH THE EWD EXTENSION OF A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL SUPPORT STRONG BUOYANCY /MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J PER KG/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 45-55 KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE STRONG BUOYANCY AND LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE INITIAL CONVECTION MAY FORM ALONG THE SYNOPTIC WIND SHIFT ENTERING SE SD AND NE NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE MORNING ELEVATED STORMS. STORM COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN INVOF ERN NEB/WRN IA...BUT ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BECOME SEWD-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. FARTHER E...SEPARATE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IL...IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANT MCV THAT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EWD FROM NRN KS THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT. THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SRH FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING SEGMENTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS IL/INDIANA WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE CLUSTERS WILL THEN MOVE ESEWD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...REACHING SRN OH AND NRN KY WITH A DAMAGING WIND RISK OVERNIGHT. THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS OVERNIGHT AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DAMAGING WIND RISK IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC WAVE IS STILL LOCATED FAR TO THE NW...AND THE GREATEST STRENGTHENING OF MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE MDT RISK AREA THE LAST 3-6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Sun is starting to poke through the clouds here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Sun is starting to poke through the clouds here.. Same here on the ne side. Could get really interesting late this afternoon and evening. Going into Indy now but will be back later for all the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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