Heisy Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Hey guys, Just curious if come next winter any of the global/mesoscale models will have minor / significant upgrades to them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 NCEP only has a NAM and an HRRR upgrade scheduled. I don't know about GGEM UKMET and EURO. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Did the GEM get its big upgrade before last winter already, or was it in the spring? I don't remember now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Did the GEM get its big upgrade before last winter already, or was it in the spring? I don't remember now. Yes, it got its once a decade upgrade on FEB.13, 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Yes, it got its once a decade upgrade on FEB.13, 2013. The day before the largest snowstorm of the 2013-2014 season. Appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 NCEP only has a NAM and an HRRR upgrade scheduled. I don't know about GGEM UKMET and EURO. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ The GFS is going to 13km this year (probably sometime in fall). Some of the package has changed, but some of then plans can be found here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/impl.php It is a T1534 L64 package, move from Eulerian to Semi-Lagrangian dynamics, and a suite of physics changes. There are also some DA changes notably increasing the resolution of the ensemble used to prescribe the background error covariance in the hybrid DA. A change/bug fix in a cloud detection algorithm has led to pretty significant improvements in terms of use of satellite data along ice sheets (this has yielded big improvements in SH scores in particular). I"m sure details will be made available soon as a lot of the retrospective testing is already completed. I recall seeing that ECMWF has a spatial resolution increase (T15xx or T17xx or something?) in the works but I don't know when it is going in (probably sometime this year IIRC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 The day before the largest snowstorm of the 2013-2014 season. Appropriate. Feb Blizzard 2013 was on Feb 8-9 I believe, if that was what you were referring to. I Refuse to use its weather channel name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 The GFS is going to 13km this year (probably sometime in fall). Some of the package has changed, but some of then plans can be found here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/impl.php It is a T1534 L64 package, move from Eulerian to Semi-Lagrangian dynamics, and a suite of physics changes. There are also some DA changes notably increasing the resolution of the ensemble used to prescribe the background error covariance in the hybrid DA. A change/bug fix in a cloud detection algorithm has led to pretty significant improvements in terms of use of satellite data along ice sheets (this has yielded big improvements in SH scores in particular). I"m sure details will be made available soon as a lot of the retrospective testing is already completed. I recall seeing that ECMWF has a spatial resolution increase (T15xx or T17xx or something?) in the works but I don't know when it is going in (probably sometime this year IIRC). Have they worked out the government hardware issues i.e. IBM to Lenovo or are they keeping the existing Commodore 64's it's been running on since inception (sarcasm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Have they worked out the government hardware issues i.e. IBM to Lenovo or are they keeping the existing Commodore 64's it's been running on since inception (sarcasm). There is nothing wrong with the current hardware. The WCOSS machine (IBM idataplex servers) has been operational for a while now (over a year). The 13km GFS will fit on the current hardware. The issues come if there are delays to the WCOSS expansion (i.e. phase 2 and phase 3 upgrades), which are at risk partly because of the sale of their server division. I don't think a final decision has been made. If delayed, the upgrades planned to take place on the bigger machine will not happen in time (vertical resolution increase to the GFS, extension of GDAS hybrid DA to 4D, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 The GFS is going to 13km this year (probably sometime in fall). Some of the package has changed, but some of then plans can be found here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/impl.php It is a T1534 L64 package, move from Eulerian to Semi-Lagrangian dynamics, and a suite of physics changes. There are also some DA changes notably increasing the resolution of the ensemble used to prescribe the background error covariance in the hybrid DA. A change/bug fix in a cloud detection algorithm has led to pretty significant improvements in terms of use of satellite data along ice sheets (this has yielded big improvements in SH scores in particular). I"m sure details will be made available soon as a lot of the retrospective testing is already completed. I recall seeing that ECMWF has a spatial resolution increase (T15xx or T17xx or something?) in the works but I don't know when it is going in (probably sometime this year IIRC). Thanks, didn't know about that page. I assume these will be run in parallel for a while until the switchover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Heard from a buddy in the UK that the UKMET is getting a decent overhaul relatively soon. Not sure if its just for the tropical season or what, but I've always liked the UKMET due to it's likeness to the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Thanks, didn't know about that page. I assume these will be run in parallel for a while until the switchover. EMC is already running it in near real time (in addition to the several retrospectives that have already been completed). If you look at the regular EMC monitoring page, scores are being plotted ("HW14"): http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html I'm no longer at EMC so I do not know the status of the code handoff to NCO nor the "official 30 day evaluation" parallel. I would expect that to be coming quite soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 EMC is already running it in near real time (in addition to the several retrospectives that have already been completed). If you look at the regular EMC monitoring page, scores are being plotted ("HW14"): http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html I'm no longer at EMC so I do not know the status of the code handoff to NCO nor the "official 30 day evaluation" parallel. I would expect that to be coming quite soon.... I haven't heard anything about the GFS yet, though I don't hear everything working in ops. It appears from a glance that the GFS would fit fine on WCOSS in parallel even with the NAM/NDAS/NLDAS and several others running. Could be shooting for some time in FY15 Q1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Heard from a buddy in the UK that the UKMET is getting a decent overhaul relatively soon. Not sure if its just for the tropical season or what, but I've always liked the UKMET due to it's likeness to the ECMWF. The UKMET received a significant upgrade on July 15. Virtually everything was upgraded, from the dynamical core to model physics to data assimilation. It appears that TC genesis and intensification have been improved significantly, although it tends to under-weaken slow moving TCs over shallow thermoclines due to a lack of upwelling (still uncoupled). It will be interesting to see whether or not east coast wintertime cyclogenesis is also improved. Public release: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2014/endgame-a-new-dynamical-core Full details: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s/h/ENDGameGOVSci_v2.0.pdf Looks like it is verifying well, just slightly below ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 The UKMET received a significant upgrade on July 15. Virtually everything was upgraded, from the dynamical core to model physics to data assimilation. It appears that TC genesis and intensification have been improved significantly, although it tends to under-weaken slow moving TCs over shallow thermoclines due to a lack of upwelling (still uncoupled). It will be interesting to see whether or not east coast wintertime cyclogenesis is also improved. Public release: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2014/endgame-a-new-dynamical-core Full details: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s/h/ENDGameGOVSci_v2.0.pdf Looks like it is verifying well, just slightly below ECMWF: If so, then having the UKMET and The King in your back pocket would be a noteworthy boost to forecaster confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 I thought the RGEM was getting a big one soon, too bad because its been so good the last year, all winter last year and even this summer on convection, the upgrade probably will make it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 NAM and it's relatives NAM4km and NAM 1.33km Fire Nest just got an upgrade. Most notable of changes so far is the improvement in nighttime temperatures and 10m wind due to the new longwave radiation scheme. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin14-29namcca.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 I heard CRAS will be upgraded from laughable to craptastic...so all you Windows 3.0 users are gonna have to upgrade to '95 to run it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 The GFS is going to 13km this year (probably sometime in fall). Some of the package has changed, but some of then plans can be found here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/impl.php Prelim. schedule has the 13km SL GFS going live in November. NAM and it's relatives NAM4km and NAM 1.33km Fire Nest just got an upgrade. Most notable of changes so far is the improvement in nighttime temperatures and 10m wind due to the new longwave radiation scheme. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin14-29namcca.htm The winds are likely improved because of GWD and roughness length changes. A lot of the "synoptic scale" improvements are probably from the DA-related changes (move to hybrid var/enkf assimilation using perturbations from the global/gdas enkf, use of DFI in the NDAS, improved satellite data assimilation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 NCEP only has a NAM and an HRRR upgrade scheduled. I don't know about GGEM UKMET and EURO. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ Gfs upgrade now scheduled for December 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Levi Cowan has the GFS Parallel available on his site and running @ T1534 (~13km). Dr. Maue will also be providing the GFS-para for WxBell subs as well in full resolution. For those not familiar with the Dec 9th implementation, here is the upgrade notice. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The Ukie at #2 now. Anyway here's some stuff on the Ukie for the future. http://dataconomy.com/uk-met-department-to-upgrade-capabilities-with-cray-supercomputers/ Edit: other sources have this at $156 million price tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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