SnoSki14 Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 I'll give the public a bit more credit. They generally know most of those viral snowfall forecasts are BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 I'll give the public a bit more credit. They generally know most of those viral snowfall forecasts are BS. It does get overwhelming, I'll grant. It's not like there are black and white—legitimate and illegitimate—weather forecasts. The public is exposed to many sources of weather content, almost in a hierarchy of reputability: *NOAA or equivalent national agency – good *TWC, Accuweather, Wunderground – fine for most purposes *Raw model data with little or misleading analysis – not ideal unless you truly know what you're doing *Credible news articles – often outdated, chance of misinterpretation by reporters *HuffPo, BuzzFeed, Gawker – hyped and poorly presented, but unlikely to be malicious *Tweets from various sources – occasionally useful given extreme care; most info too brief and unverifiable *Personal blogs by people with minimal meteorological experience – enough jargon to sound knowledgeable, but not necessarily reliable *Farmers' Almanac – folklore and hype, but not explicitly satirical or malicious *Facebook pages run by social media gurus with no meteorological experience – plagued by hype and misinformation, and driven by personal agendas *Satire – no good Joe the proverbial Plumber is likely able to distinguish between the "good" official info and the "no good" satire, but where does he draw the line? You can't tell him to only utilize 'reliable' sources unless you catalog every known source or make him study meteorology for a couple decades. I'm not excusing the people who confuse satire with journalism, but given the above list, it's not always so clear-cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Question: What pattern were we in for the 95-96 winter? The CNJ Plowsman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Question: What pattern were we in for the 95-96 winter? The CNJ Plowsman A weak La Nina with massive blocking in the EPAC and NATL msot of the winter, exception being mid January. Despite the La Nina the storm track was active, a big reason for this was probably oceanic/atmospheric delay, that was our first La Nina since 1989 so we had been predominantly Nino or neutral from 1990-1994, hence the atmosphere still behaved like an El Nino, similar to how 2010-2011 acted very El Nino like despite the fact ocean temps had already cooled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Gonna need a bigger boat The CNJ Plowsman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Ergh Trenton, New Jersey (My9NJ) - It may be time to dust off those winter coats, cold weather could be coming our way much quicker than you think. As early as next week areas all across New Jersey should start to see temperatures drop drastically with the northern part of the state getting down into the upper 40's. "We have some cooler weather coming in here, strong cold front out across Pennsylvania, that's coming through here tonight. And I'll tell you by Saturday, you're going to need a jacket and probably an umbrella too," Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather.com Brett Anderson said. Luckily for the Garden State, most of the freeze and frost conditions are going to stay in upstate New York. But Anderson still paints a snowy picture for us this year, with snowfall coming as early as the end of October or early November. "Right now we think there's going to be a weak El Niño, which would favor above normal snow fall, probably not the extreme amounts that we saw last winter," Anderson said. Anderson gives us a sliver of hope by saying lower than normal temperatures and high average snowfall shouldn't be a trend going forward in New Jersey. On the other hand, he said we will be seeing a lot more extreme weather. "We could see more in the way of extremes, bigger snow storms, bigger rain events as the planet continues to warm and get more extremes going on," he said. This winter should get very cold, very fast though as Anderson predicts the first snowfall should be coming to North Jersey around November 11th, so mark your calenders! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 This isn't based off on anything particularly scientific and more just a matter of my opinion but I have great feelings about this coming winter. The teleconnections look great from what we can see now and I like how the southern stream is already showing signs of coming alive. Also, we've been through a very dry period and that has to reverse itself at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Ergh Trenton, New Jersey (My9NJ) - tldr — it's September and winter might be coming in a few months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Ergh Trenton, New Jersey (My9NJ) - It may be time to dust off those winter coats, cold weather could be coming our way much quicker than you think. As early as next week areas all across New Jersey should start to see temperatures drop drastically with the northern part of the state getting down into the upper 40's. "We have some cooler weather coming in here, strong cold front out across Pennsylvania, that's coming through here tonight. And I'll tell you by Saturday, you're going to need a jacket and probably an umbrella too," Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather.com Brett Anderson said. Luckily for the Garden State, most of the freeze and frost conditions are going to stay in upstate New York. But Anderson still paints a snowy picture for us this year, with snowfall coming as early as the end of October or early November. "Right now we think there's going to be a weak El Niño, which would favor above normal snow fall, probably not the extreme amounts that we saw last winter," Anderson said. Anderson gives us a sliver of hope by saying lower than normal temperatures and high average snowfall shouldn't be a trend going forward in New Jersey. On the other hand, he said we will be seeing a lot more extreme weather. "We could see more in the way of extremes, bigger snow storms, bigger rain events as the planet continues to warm and get more extremes going on," he said. This winter should get very cold, very fast though as Anderson predicts the first snowfall should be coming to North Jersey around November 11th, so mark your calenders! A sliver of hope as the planet continues to warm? Are you kidding me, out of control greenhouse effect is a sliver of hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 The last paragraph bothers me the most. Trying to nail down a date that's 2 months out and during a time of year that is still quite uncommon to see accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Just look at the source it came from in the article, enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 This isn't based off on anything particularly scientific and more just a matter of my opinion but I have great feelings about this coming winter. The teleconnections look great from what we can see now and I like how the southern stream is already showing signs of coming alive. Also, we've been through a very dry period and that has to reverse itself at some point. I wouldn't count anything as a win until the end of October. Too much still can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Ergh Trenton, New Jersey (My9NJ) - It may be time to dust off those winter coats, cold weather could be coming our way much quicker than you think. As early as next week areas all across New Jersey should start to see temperatures drop drastically with the northern part of the state getting down into the upper 40's. "We have some cooler weather coming in here, strong cold front out across Pennsylvania, that's coming through here tonight. And I'll tell you by Saturday, you're going to need a jacket and probably an umbrella too," Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather.com Brett Anderson said. Luckily for the Garden State, most of the freeze and frost conditions are going to stay in upstate New York. But Anderson still paints a snowy picture for us this year, with snowfall coming as early as the end of October or early November. "Right now we think there's going to be a weak El Niño, which would favor above normal snow fall, probably not the extreme amounts that we saw last winter," Anderson said. Anderson gives us a sliver of hope by saying lower than normal temperatures and high average snowfall shouldn't be a trend going forward in New Jersey. On the other hand, he said we will be seeing a lot more extreme weather. "We could see more in the way of extremes, bigger snow storms, bigger rain events as the planet continues to warm and get more extremes going on," he said. This winter should get very cold, very fast though as Anderson predicts the first snowfall should be coming to North Jersey around November 11th, so mark your calenders! I usually don't mind accuweather too much, but THIS is what gets me aggravated. When you go out on a rant to report a story and say crazy stuff like this, you lose all credibility. This is not forecasting. It's amazing some of the hyped stories that you see being reported by the media these days. Especially when it comes to weather. It's stuff like this that makes me NOT want to be a weather "forecaster" if you will (I'm not a meteorologist yet). The public tries to believe this, and when it doesn't happen, they blame the entire meteorology world. Even the credible mets that don't deserve it (and never hype stuff like this). It isn't right, and I'm fed up with it. Rant over, carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 "We could see more in the way of extremes, bigger snow storms, bigger rain events as the planet continues to warm and get more extremes going on," --Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather.com Brett Anderson said. wtf? "as the planet continues to warm." --what planet? Venus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 "We could see more in the way of extremes, bigger snow storms, bigger rain events as the planet continues to warm and get more extremes going on," --Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather.com Brett Anderson said. wtf? "as the planet continues to warm." --what planet? Venus? Wrong forum, review the latest GISS dataset as well. Hiatus cancel... Calling out my prediction, we will not see frost until after Thanksgiving, at least along the coast and in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Wrong forum, review the latest GISS dataset as well. Hiatus cancel... Calling out my prediction, we will not see frost until after Thanksgiving, at least along the coast and in the city. Seeing that frost can occur with reported temps several degrees above freezing... you don't see temps getting to the mid 30's until after the last week of November? ( Nov. 27th to be exact) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Seeing that frost can occur with reported temps several degrees above freezing... you don't see temps getting to the mid 30's until after the last week of November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 "We could see more in the way of extremes, bigger snow storms, bigger rain events as the planet continues to warm and get more extremes going on," --Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather.com Brett Anderson said. wtf? "as the planet continues to warm." --what planet? Venus? Was just thinking that I'd hadn"t seen a post from you in awhile and there you are lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 "We could see more in the way of extremes, bigger snow storms, bigger rain events as the planet continues to warm and get more extremes going on," --Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather.com Brett Anderson said. wtf? "as the planet continues to warm." --what planet? Venus? Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Earth.Well it hasn't in the last 15 years . So I wouldn't worry about it. Maybe the hockey stick was meant to be upside down ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Well it hasn't in the last 15 years . So I wouldn't worry about it. Maybe the hockey stick was meant to be upside down ? Sure if you start at 1998 (and we still beat that year's heat despite 98 having a Nino from hell.) Are you always this disingenuous or is it only relating to topics where thousands of scientists around the world have devoted decades of work to arrive at a consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Sure if you start at 1998 (and we still beat that year's heat despite 98 having a Nino from hell.) Are you always this disingenuous or is it only relating to topics where thousands of scientists around the world have devoted decades of work to arrive at a consensus? Hi! My first post, which is not meant to be trollish in any way, but I honestly think those scientists rely on models...they hug them. Not good science, imo. eta: That's one truly "tired Starling"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLPhill Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Hi! My first post, which is not meant to be trollish in any way, but I honestly think those scientists rely on models...they hug them. Not good science, imo. eta: That's one truly "tired Starling"... Long time lurker here also looking to get into the boards more this cold season. I don't think it's fair to broadbrush climate scientsts as model huggers. While the most recent iteration of GCM forecasts were overly aggressive, the community seems committed to resolving the issues that lead to these poor forecasts. That said, I'm interested in the effects that the impending El Nino will have on the currently record high surface temperatures. I apologize for derailing this thread further, not good form for a new comer. Looking forward to contributing more in the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Long time lurker here also looking to get into the boards more this cold season. I don't think it's fair to broadbrush climate scientsts as model huggers. While the most recent iteration of GCM forecasts were overly aggressive, the community seems committed to resolving the issues that lead to these poor forecasts. That said, I'm interested in the effects that the impending El Nino will have on the currently record high surface temperatures. I apologize for derailing this thread further, not good form for a new comer. Looking forward to contributing more in the coming months. How could it be that currrent models that employ actual DATA from balloon and dropsnode are so unreliable, yet forecasts of future dilemma are taken seriously. This seems highly illogical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 How could it be that currrent models that employ actual DATA from balloon and dropsnode are so unreliable, yet forecasts of future dilemma are taken seriously. This seems highly illogical. Climate models are vastly different from numerical weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Climate models are vastly different from numerical weather models. Where do you sourse data from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLPhill Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 How could it be that currrent models that employ actual DATA from balloon and dropsnode are so unreliable, yet forecasts of future dilemma are taken seriously. This seems highly illogical. Weather models such as the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, CFS etc are tasked with forecasting meteorological events that are dictated by mesoscale anomoalies (shortwaves, etc) that are hard to predict in the long range but have little consequence on the global climate. GCMs on the other hand, are tasked with illustrating how the atmosphere will react to changes in it's composition over a longer period of time. While numerical weather prediction models have little skill beyond 10 days in their forecasting of mesoscale features, GCMs are not attempting to predict at those types of spatial resolutions, making this a true apples to oragnes compairson. A lot of the errors in we see in weather models might impact our predictions of weather, but mean little on how we can predict climate. Once again, this conversation has no place in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Hello everybody, I am new here and to get an idea of how much I love weather id like you guys to check out my blog that I've had for a few years about predicting winter and summer outlooks. The blog is www.sswlive.wordpress.com I just wanna say it's nice to be amongst individuals that have a passion for weather particularly winter weather (blizzards for NYC) I live for them. Well of course family and friends too but a blizzard is just amazing! I will have my winter weather 2014-15 outlook within a week and I'll share it with you guys as soon as I have it. I will talk to you guys later, enjoy your weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Hello everybody, I am new here and to get an idea of how much I love weather id like you guys to check out my blog that I've had for a few years about predicting winter and summer outlooks. The blog is www.sswlive.wordpress.com I just wanna say it's nice to be amongst individuals that have a passion for weather particularly winter weather (blizzards for NYC) I live for them. Well of course family and friends too but a blizzard is just amazing! I will have my winter weather 2014-15 outlook within a week and I'll share it with you guys as soon as I have it. I will talk to you guys later, enjoy your weekend! . Whats with all the stock and trading blogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 . Whats with all the stock and trading blogs? Hey seanick stocks is where I make my money weather is my hobby and passion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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