Early discussion Winter 2014/15

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Looks like the Classic Greenland West Based -NAO block is becoming more likely this winter. Look at the Super Warm anomalies between Newfoundland and Greenland. 

[Isotherm]

I like to wait for the October/November data as far as NAO forecasting, but the early indicators do suggest a negative modality this winter. Need to keep an eye on solar trends over the ensuing months as well.

[MJO812]

2014-2015 Farmers Almanac

[Juliancolton]

Looks like the Classic Greenland West Based -NAO block is becoming more likely this winter. Look at the Super Warm anomalies between Newfoundland and Greenland. 

Would you have known to say this if forky hadn't noted the exact same thing nine hours earlier...?

 

 

2014-2015 Farmers Almanac

 

I can't say that I ever remember a forecast of theirs for a "warm" or "quiet" winter in the northeast. Of course, I always accepted their winter forecasts as little more than an hour of late-summer entertainment. The past week or so, their calls for an 'epic' (not my word) winter have made top news, and I'm not sure where the sudden interest has come from... are people still lamenting the relative cold of last winter?

[Yanksfan]

The Pacific waters are starting to warm up in the 3.4 region. This weeks readings are at 0.3, up from 0.0 last week. 

[Weathergun]

It's very early, but I like the warm trends so far with north pacific and north Atlantic ssts and weak warm enso. Would like to see ssts south of NF cool a bit to support a 50/50 low. Of course, the are more factors, that need support a -nao.

[uncle W]

we got nearly 60" of snowfall last season without a hecs in NYC...If we get half that amount of snow it would be a normal year...as of now I would bet NYC has another snowy winter...Two months from now I might be seeing things differently...1976-77 was the coldest winter but had average snowfall without a hecs or secs...1977-78 was almost as cold with two hecs...those analogs are on the table for now...

[SnoSki14]

Now watch this winter end up being a snowless torch fest just like last winter wasn't forecast to be anything near as snowy or cold as it was. 

[SnowGoose69]

Now watch this winter end up being a snowless torch fest just like last winter wasn't forecast to be anything near as snowy or cold as it was.

It would be very hard with the current SST pattern, you can get mild winters with a -NAO but that usually requires a strong GOA low, with that current SST pattern out there it would need to do a 180 to get it primed for a good GOA low winter...my biggest concern now would be us being too dry if the El Niño never really gets going

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

It would be very hard with the current SST pattern, you can get mild winters with a -NAO but that usually requires a strong GOA low, with that current SST pattern out there it would need to do a 180 to get it primed for a good GOA low winter...my biggest concern now would be us being too dry if the El Niño never really gets going

 

Exactly. I totally agree with this. If we don't see a weak Nino, we will have a cold and drier winter. 

[Yanksfan]

Exactly. I totally agree with this. If we don't see a weak Nino, we will have a cold and drier winter. 

I also think the pattern is setting up for a cold winter; perhaps even bitterly cold if the -EPO flexes its muscles. The key to the winter will be that El Nino. All we need is a weak one, and then I foresee an epic winter. The pacific waters have been warming up the past week which is an encouraging sign. On the other hand, without one, we'll be nickeled and dimed with clippers.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I think our winter is about to get a whole lot colder. Mt. Tavurvur has erupted 3 days ago. A Southern Hemisphere volcano eruption has a much bigger impact on global climo. 

[IsentropicLift]

The weak Niño is coming, it's just delayed. Also as Forky mentioned, we should see a persistent west based - NAO. I like the look of the northern stream on long range guidance. Very active northern streams can cause model mayhem but can lead to very active patterns as a whole.

[Yanksfan]

The weak Niño is coming, it's just delayed. Also as Forky mentioned, we should see a persistent west based - NAO. I like the look of the northern stream on long range guidance. Very active northern streams can cause model mayhem but can lead to very active patterns as a whole.

It's still early, but the way things seems to be lining up, we may have all the teleconnections work out in our favor. That's  something that doesn't happen very often.

[blizzardof96]

My official winter 2014-15 outlook: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-15-outlook.html

[MJO812]

El Nino FTW

[Superstorm93]

My official winter 2014-15 outlook: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-15-outlook.html

One of the more impressive outlooks I've seen so far. Excellent job.

Obviously rooting for your forecast to verify

[Stormlover74]

People are posting this link as if it's a real forecast

Meteorologists Predict Record-Shattering Snowfall Coming Soon

Bread & Milk Prices Expected To Soar

Posted on September 6, 2014 by Raoul Stockton in Health/Fitness, Science/Tech

SILVER SPRING, Maryland - Meteorologists Predict Record Shattering Snowfalls Coming Soon; Bread & Milk Prices Expected To Soar

Chances are you will hear a lot about El Niño in the next month or two. Meteorologists and weather science experts at the National Weather Service (NWS) say that there is a 99% chance that the we will start to see a massive cold-front sooner in the year than has ever happened, which will produce not just record-breaking snowfall, but according to Dr. Boris Scvediok, a doctor of global weather sciences, record shattering snow storms across the board, affecting the entire United States.

“For the sake of comparison to the past winter, lets say that your area received a total of twenty inches of accumulative snow for the season. Because this year the snowfall is predicted to start by the end of September or the beginning of October, you can expect to multiply that number by up to five, ten, maybe even twenty times in some areas. In the worst zones, you could see 50 times the amount of snow you’ve had in the past. This is the type of winter the American public needs to prepare for. Several meteorologists are saying not to buy into what the models are showing. I can tell you from forty years of scientific weather research, they are doing you a disservice,” Dr. Scvediok told the Associated Press on Friday. “The Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Midwestern states will definitely get hit the hardest.”

Edward F. Blankenbaker, Senior Administrator of Meteorologists, also told the media that this will be a once-in-a-lifetime kind of snowy winter.

“Pretty much everyone will see snow like they never have in their lives. Most younger people don’t even know what an actual blizzard looks like, but by the end of March, they will be seasoned survivalists,” Blankenbaker said. “Everyone needs to make sure they have their weather emergency kits prepared and ready to go. There will undoubtably be mass power outages, which along with freezing temperatures and enough snowfall to immobilize entire cities, will most likely, and unfortunately, be a very dangerous recipe. Safety always comes first and the time to prepare is right now.”

Along with the mention of severe winter weather, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) predicts supply and demand could cause shortages, causing the prices of bread and milk to increase substantially. FDA spokesperson Rebecca Miller suggests alternatives in preparation of the coming months.

“We are encouraging that you go out and purchase bulk amounts of dry, powdered milk which can be stored in your cupboards. This will prevent frantic trips to grocery stores and super markets as the onslaught of storms begin to fall upon your respected region.” Miller said. “As far as bread, we suggest you buy as much as you can efficiently store in your freezer. Bread can be frozen and thawed without compromising the integrity of its quality. Preparations such as these are crucial and the fact that technology has brought us to a time and place in which such events can be predicted is quite remarkable. So stock up on your powdered milk and fill your freezer with loaves of bread, because once the blankets of snow begin to fall, brave souls will confront the elements to raid stores of these products like some sort of scavenger hunt. Don’t be a part of the Snowpocolypse, it’s a dangerous battlefield of crazed shopping winter bitten weather zombies.”

milkbreadStock up! Prices could more than triple in some locations

Public safety organizations also encourage the masses to prepare themselves by obtaining proper necessities. James Satterfield from the National Fire and Safety Advisory Board says preparation can save lives. “Don’t wait until temperatures plummet into a freeze; obtain cold weather clothing and footwear, including wool thermal socks. It is also crucial to have plenty of batteries, candles, weather radios, you name it. Get prepared, it’s coming.” Satterfield stated. “First and foremost, make sure you have an effective plan in place to make sure you have plenty of bread and milk.”

Dr. Scvediok says to be prepared for a storm that could come as early as the end of September, and plan for the entire winter season, which this year, he says, will more than likely spread into next June

[HailMan06]

We'll need another Toba or Yellowstone eruption for that forecast to verify.

[Stormlover74]

We'll need another Toba or Yellowstone eruption for that forecast to verify.

You would think the snow starting in September and lasting til June would be the first clue

[Sundog]

Lol people are so gullible. That reads like an Onion article.

[Rjay]

Lol people are so gullible. That reads like an Onion article.

The Onion is so much better

[uncle W]

50 times 60" equals 3000"...I stopped reading when the 50 times last years accumulations was mentioned...recent times has seen many good snow seasons for this area including last year...It used to be any winter with a major storm and 30" over all was a good one...that would seem wimpy compared to last year...Last year was cold with 33 days with a max 32 or lower...to beat last year means a winter like 2010-11 or 1995-96...I think the fall will give us more than a hint of what's to come...I'd like to see a cold ending to this month...1947 and 1957 had very cool second half of September...both winters were on the great side...

[NEG NAO]

I find it very interesting that when you google Scvediok and Blamkenbaker names the only place they appear are in these bogus articles - notice in the article the author does not mention where they currently work 

People are posting this link as if it's a real forecast


Meteorologists Predict Record-Shattering Snowfall Coming Soon
Bread & Milk Prices Expected To Soar
Posted on September 6, 2014 by Raoul Stockton in Health/Fitness, Science/Tech
SILVER SPRING, Maryland - Meteorologists Predict Record Shattering Snowfalls Coming Soon; Bread & Milk Prices Expected To Soar

Chances are you will hear a lot about El Niño in the next month or two. Meteorologists and weather science experts at the National Weather Service (NWS) say that there is a 99% chance that the we will start to see a massive cold-front sooner in the year than has ever happened, which will produce not just record-breaking snowfall, but according to Dr. Boris Scvediok, a doctor of global weather sciences, record shattering snow storms across the board, affecting the entire United States.

“For the sake of comparison to the past winter, lets say that your area received a total of twenty inches of accumulative snow for the season. Because this year the snowfall is predicted to start by the end of September or the beginning of October, you can expect to multiply that number by up to five, ten, maybe even twenty times in some areas. In the worst zones, you could see 50 times the amount of snow you’ve had in the past. This is the type of winter the American public needs to prepare for. Several meteorologists are saying not to buy into what the models are showing. I can tell you from forty years of scientific weather research, they are doing you a disservice,” Dr. Scvediok told the Associated Press on Friday. “The Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Midwestern states will definitely get hit the hardest.”

Edward F. Blankenbaker, Senior Administrator of Meteorologists, also told the media that this will be a once-in-a-lifetime kind of snowy winter.

“Pretty much everyone will see snow like they never have in their lives. Most younger people don’t even know what an actual blizzard looks like, but by the end of March, they will be seasoned survivalists,” Blankenbaker said. “Everyone needs to make sure they have their weather emergency kits prepared and ready to go. There will undoubtably be mass power outages, which along with freezing temperatures and enough snowfall to immobilize entire cities, will most likely, and unfortunately, be a very dangerous recipe. Safety always comes first and the time to prepare is right now.”



Along with the mention of severe winter weather, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) predicts supply and demand could cause shortages, causing the prices of bread and milk to increase substantially. FDA spokesperson Rebecca Miller suggests alternatives in preparation of the coming months.

“We are encouraging that you go out and purchase bulk amounts of dry, powdered milk which can be stored in your cupboards. This will prevent frantic trips to grocery stores and super markets as the onslaught of storms begin to fall upon your respected region.” Miller said. “As far as bread, we suggest you buy as much as you can efficiently store in your freezer. Bread can be frozen and thawed without compromising the integrity of its quality. Preparations such as these are crucial and the fact that technology has brought us to a time and place in which such events can be predicted is quite remarkable. So stock up on your powdered milk and fill your freezer with loaves of bread, because once the blankets of snow begin to fall, brave souls will confront the elements to raid stores of these products like some sort of scavenger hunt. Don’t be a part of the Snowpocolypse, it’s a dangerous battlefield of crazed shopping winter bitten weather zombies.”

milkbreadStock up! Prices could more than triple in some locations
Public safety organizations also encourage the masses to prepare themselves by obtaining proper necessities. James Satterfield from the National Fire and Safety Advisory Board says preparation can save lives. “Don’t wait until temperatures plummet into a freeze; obtain cold weather clothing and footwear, including wool thermal socks. It is also crucial to have plenty of batteries, candles, weather radios, you name it. Get prepared, it’s coming.” Satterfield stated. “First and foremost, make sure you have an effective plan in place to make sure you have plenty of bread and milk.”

Dr. Scvediok says to be prepared for a storm that could come as early as the end of September, and plan for the entire winter season, which this year, he says, will more than likely spread into next June

[NycStormChaser]

Ahh you guys, what a great group of gullible people. Has anyone scrolled down to the about page. I noticed it a few days ago but this thread gave me a laugh. Its a fake news site lol

[NEG NAO]

Ahh you guys, what a great group of gullible people. Has anyone scrolled down to the about page. I noticed it a few days ago but this thread gave me a laugh. Its a fake news site lol2014-09-08 07.34.47.png

I didn't fall for it as I posted previously to your post that it was bogus - aren't we having enough problems with this forums credibility in the weather community to add that we would post something like that and  believe it was real  ! ?- LMAO

[Juliancolton]

The problem with Onion-esque content is that there's a rather large portion of the general public who are just internet-savvy enough to see the latest viral articles, be they fact or fiction, but lack the critical thought to verify rumors before reposting them or telling their friends about them. Then, come June—when nobody's gotten 3,000" of snow—they'll bemoan the 'weather liars' and praise HAARP or whatever it is the general public do these days.

[Stormlover74]

The problem with Onion-esque content is that there's a rather large portion of the general public who are just internet-savvy enough to see the latest viral articles, be they fact or fiction, but lack the critical thought to verify rumors before reposting them or telling their friends about them. Then, come June—when nobody's gotten 3,000" of snow—they'll bemoan the 'weather liars' and praise HAARP or whatever it is the general public do these days.

Very true. Even in the posts I've seen warning people about the fake article people are going oh thank god its not true...kinda missing the point that it should've never been believed by anyone with a 3rd grade education in the first place. Nor does it mean we WONT have a cold and snowy winter, just that the article is satire.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Its pretty easy to fool the general public on weather related information. Most people generally don't know much, if anything about weather. That's why the polar vortex nonsense got so much play last year.

Its also why some 14 year old kid posts a weenie 10 day snowmap that has places in the NE getting 45 inches of snow and people run with it and it goes viral.

Then when 2 inches fall, everyone bashes weather forecasters.

I don't envy being a public forecaster in this time of viral sensations and social media, it isn't easy

[REDMK6GLI]

Its pretty easy to fool the general public on weather related information. Most people generally don't know much, if anything about weather. That's why the polar vortex nonsense got so much play last year.

Its also why some 14 year old kid posts a weenie 10 day snowmap that has places in the NE getting 45 inches of snow and people run with it and it goes viral.

Then when 2 inches fall, everyone bashes weather forecasters.

I don't envy being a public forecaster in this time of viral sensations and social media, it isn't easy

Posting a 10 day snowfall/forecast map is careless to begin with. Atleast here when something like that is posted we look at the pattern leading up to it and determine if the storm can happen in that exact way (precip. Not included). The general public does not care about what pattern we are in and only listen to online/TV weather forecasts which lets face it more times than not have been inaccurate. IMO weather forecasters will be bashed constantly due to the fact the general public has no clue about what has to go into making an accurate forecast they may bust anyway. Weather will never be an exact science, the public makes it out like it should most of the time.

That article shouldnt have never been published, sadly though they're were probably people that saw it and believed it.