Early discussion Winter 2014/15

[Chaser25973]

If we can get a weak el nino to develop along with a polar vortex, we could be in store for a KU event(s). I think both anomalies will be present this winter. The key for us will be if the atlantic - NAO is there to slow things down.

 

You could have an El Nino, a -NAO, a Polar Vortex, a -AO and every other perfect setup under the sun and still not get a KU event. There are so many things that need to come into play to give us a 12"+ event...

[NEG NAO]

If we can get a weak el nino to develop along with a polar vortex, we could be in store for a KU event(s). I think both anomalies will be present this winter. The key for us will be if the atlantic - NAO is there to slow things down.The 

the NAO has been mainly negative the last several months and we are entering the biggest drop in the NAO in quite some time possibly around -2 - we have to see if this trend continues through the fall with these occasional significant negative departures from 0 - this along with the continuing - EPO will set us up for a very active snowy below normal temp winter in the east.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

[PB GFI]

I like the center of the cold over the east coast. The Jamstec and Euro winter outlooks bottle the cold up here .

The CFSV2 is warm . I am not sure what it's seeing.

I will go with the 1st 2. As the Jamstec has really done well in the last 2 winters.

[cleetussnow]

Nick Gregory favoring a cold and snowy winter...

 

http://www.lohud.com/story/news/2014/08/15/nick-gregory-snowy-winter/14113339/

[MJO812]

Joe Bastardi also said today that this will be an extreme winter

[NEG NAO]

Joe Bastardi also said today that this will be an extreme winter

anytime you start using the word "extreme" in mid August describing next  winter you are setting yourself up for a big bust - in fact he only has this area at 133% of normal snowfall - last winter  we had over 200% normal snowfall for the winter - that is what I would call extreme .......

[Weathergun]

Joe Bastardi also said today that this will be an extreme winter

How unusual coming from him.

[Snow_Miser]

Saw these posted on a weather board. Seems like the CFS did a big flip for December, FWIW.

 

 

[PB GFI]

Joe Bastardi also said today that this will be an extreme winter

 He said not as cold as last year overall but the center of the cold would be further east .

Above normal Snow but less than last year ( last year was top 7 )  .

Colder and Snowier than Normal YES .  EXTREME NO , HE NEVER SAID THAT .

[PB GFI]

 He said not as cold as last year overall but the center of the cold would be further east .

Above normal Snow but less than last year ( last year was top 7 )  .

Colder and Snowier than Normal YES .  EXTREME NO , HE NEVER SAID THAT .

Actual Discussion

The two closest winters to reference in the last 15 years would be 2002-03 and 2009-10.

While the winter is overall cold and snowy, it is not the same as last year. The core of the cold was in the northern Plains in 2013-14, but this year (relative to normal) it is expected to be farther south and east.

[PB GFI]

JAMSTEC 2M Temps .

[PB GFI]

Yuck...

However the 500 MB Euro looks more like the Jamstec set up  .

[SnowGoose69]

The NATL tripole is remarkably good right now, by far the best since the summer of 2010, nothing has really come close since then, 2011 and 2012 were both brutal, last year it was meh.  In general too, the last 5 years the overal SST pattern out there has not changed much from mid August-September to the winter...there is so much warm water up by Greenland now even a nasty 1-2 month pattern of lows up there may not be enough to eat away.  I would like to see the bottom half of the tripole be a bit warmer down near the tropics but some of the research shows the top 2 locations being warm-cold are more important that the 3rd being exceptionally warn.  The Pacific we all know is great, tons of warm water in the GOA again.

[NEG NAO]

 He said not as cold as last year overall but the center of the cold would be further east .

Above normal Snow but less than last year ( last year was top 7 )  .

Colder and Snowier than Normal YES .  EXTREME NO , HE NEVER SAID THAT .

One thing he is right about and which I find very disturbing is the potential strain on the power grid because of coal fueled power plants being shut down left and right - really time to start considering a back up generator because being without electricity when its 10 degrees or lower outside is down right dangerous !

 

http://deneenborelli.com/2014/02/closure-coal-power-plants-leads-energy-shortage-new-england/

[PB GFI]

One thing he is right about and which I find very disturbing is the potential strain on the power grid because of coal fueled power plants being shut down left and right - really time to start considering a back up generator because being without electricity when its 10 degrees or lower outside is down right dangerous !

 

http://deneenborelli.com/2014/02/closure-coal-power-plants-leads-energy-shortage-new-england/

I put a Generac in back in 2010 when I built in Colts Neck. I've needed it 10 x so far its been a life saver.

Joe s fear is when some of the coal fire plants come off line Jan 1 Nat Gas will see record draws and any shortages will cause a strain on the grids. At the very least if the NE is cold u will see NG trade to 7 this winter. It's 4 now.

[uncle W]

KNYC snowfall Oct-Jan/Feb-Apr...

season...first...second total...

2013-14...28.3 29.1=57.4"

2012-13.....6.6 19.5=26.1"

2011-12.....7.2 ..0.2=..7.4"

2010-11...56.1 ..5.8=61.9"

2009-10...14.5 36.9=51.4"

2008-09...15.0 12.6=27.6"

2007-08.....2.9 ..9.0=11.9"

2006-07.....2.6 ..9.8=12.4"

2005-06...11.7 28.3=40.0"

2004-05...18.3 22.7=41.0"

2003-04...37.1 ..5.5=42.6"

2002-03...15.7 33.6=49.3"

2001-02.....3.5 ..T...=..3.5"

2000-01...21.7 13.3=35.0"

1999-00.....9.5 ..6.8=16.3"

1998-99.....6.5 ..6.2=12.7"

1997-98.....0.5 ..5.0=..5.5"

1996-97.....4.5 ..5.5=10.0"

1995-96...40.5 35.1=75.6"

1994-95.....0.2 11.6=11.8"

1993-94...18.9 34.5=53.4"

1992-93.....1.9 22.6=24.5"

1991-92.....2.2 10.4=12.6"

1990-91...15.6 ..9.3=24.9"

1989-90.....7.9 ..5.5=13.4"

1974-75.....2.2 10.9=13.1"

1972-73.....1.8 ..1.0=..2.8"

1971-72.....2.8 20.1=22.9"

1970-71...13.8 ..1.7=15.5"

1966-67...10.5 41.0=51.4"

1960-61...35.3 19.4=54.7"

1953-54...14.9 ..0.9=15.8"

1952-53...13.8 ..1.3=15.1"

1948-49...31.7 14.9=46.6"

1947-48...44.9 18.3=63.2"

1933-34...15.5 36.5=52.0"

1931-32.....2.9 ..2.4=..5.3"

1929-30.....9.8 ..3.8=13.6"

1925-26.....4.9 27.5=32.4"

1924-25...28.3 ..1.3=29.6"

1918-19.....0.6 ..3.2=3.8"

1913-14.....1.6 38.9=40.5"

1912-13...12.5 ..2.8=15.3"

1905-06.....2.5 17.5=20.0"

1900-01.....2.1 ..7.0=..9.1"

1899-00.....1.1 12.3=13.4"

1895-96.....3.3 43.0=46.3"

1877-78.....6.1 ..2.0=..8.1"

1875-76.....2.0 16.3=18.3"

[PB GFI]

The NATL tripole is remarkably good right now, by far the best since the summer of 2010, nothing has really come close since then, 2011 and 2012 were both brutal, last year it was meh.  In general too, the last 5 years the overal SST pattern out there has not changed much from mid August-September to the winter...there is so much warm water up by Greenland now even a nasty 1-2 month pattern of lows up there may not be enough to eat away.  I would like to see the bottom half of the tripole be a bit warmer down near the tropics but some of the research shows the top 2 locations being warm-cold are more important that the 3rd being exceptionally warn.  The Pacific we all know is great, tons of warm water in the GOA again.

Jamstec SST

[Isotherm]

*Disclaimer: The following is not a forecast but an informational post.*

 

It's very difficult to get a winter with all 4 major teleconnection indices in a favorable phase for winter, that is, a negative EPO, negative AO, negative NAO, and positive PNA -- a regime that promotes higher than normal heights essentially circumnavigating the entire Arctic region.

 

The only three winters I can find since 1950 where that occurred and yielded a colder/snowier than normal winter for the area are:

 

1977-78

1995-96

2002-03

 

What I call, the unholy trio of winters. It doesn't get better than the above in my opinion, at least in terms of the global atmospheric set-up. You're basically talking about all the stars aligning. Another important factor to consider was that 1977-78 and 1995-96 both featured a solar minimum. 2002-03 had higher solar activity. So really in terms of all variables, #1 is 1995-96, #2 is 1977-78, and #3 is 2002-03. Interestingly enough, the former two years produced more total snowfall than 2002-03.

 

 

Will we see the stars align for this upcoming winter? Only time will tell. In terms of ENSO, 1977-78 might be the best match of those years as it featured a weak El Nino.

 

 

 

 

[Mikehobbyst]

Mets, do you seriously think a 1977-1978 type winter is really in the cards with all the tele-connectors being favorable ?  Is there anything you see that could ruin that chance ?

 

-/neutral NAO

-EPO

+PNA

Nino

+PDO

-AO

 

Could we strike the jackpot for a 1/50 year jackpot winter and blow 2013-2014 into the dust.

 

I am really pulling for a 65 inch plus snow fall winter.  I think we go into the freezer mid November and stay in it through mid February, with hardly any breaks and tons of snow/blizzard potentials.  Very optimistic...

[uncle W]

Mets, do you seriously think a 1977-1978 type winter is really in the cards with all the tele-connectors being favorable ?  Is there anything you see that could ruin that chance ?

 

-/neutral NAO

-EPO

+PNA

Nino

+PDO

-AO

 

Could we strike the jackpot for a 1/50 year jackpot winter and blow 2013-2014 into the dust.

 

I am really pulling for a 65 inch plus snow fall winter.  I think we go into the freezer mid November and stay in it through mid February, with hardly any breaks and tons of snow/blizzard potentials.  Very optimistic...

I'm not a mets but as a Yankee I think if there is a weak nino 1976-77 and 1977-78 analogs are on the table...doesn't mean it will happen but it sounds good in late August...

[uncle W]

the coldest December on record for NYC was in 1831...I found a daily record from Erasmus Hall in Brooklyn NY...Highs and lows are the morning observation and afternoon observation...Highs and lows could be a little higher or lower each day...

day max...min...snow...depth...

01... 32.....23.....T.......1"

02... 32.....23.....0.......1"

03... 26.....22.....0.......1"

04... 30.....20.....2"......3"

05... 25.....14.....0.......3"

06... 25.....15.....0.......3"

07... 26.....14.....0.......3"

08... 28.....20.....0.......3"

09... 32.....24.....0.......3"

10... 30.....20.....0.......2"

11... 35.....20.....0.......1"

12... 27.....18.....0.......1"

13... 25.....16.....0.......1"

14... 23.....17.....1"......2"

15... 21.....13.....2"......4"

16... 25.....11.....0.......4"

17... 26.....11.....T.......4"

18... 17.......9.....0.......4"

19... 26.....18.....0.......4"

20... 26.....18.....0.......4"

21... 38.....24.....0.......2"

22... 24.....10.....0.......2"

23... 24.......8.....0.......2"

24... 38.....26.....2"......2" might have started or ended as rain...

25... 34.....26.....1"......2" White Christmas...

26... 30.....20.....1"......3"

27... 25.....18.....0.......3"

28... 29.....21...10"....13"

29... 33.....24.....0.....13"

30... 24.....13.....0.....13"

31... 32.....18.....2"....13"

http://www.glenallen... Eastern US.pdf

[Isotherm]

the coldest December on record for NYC was in 1831...I found a daily record from Erasmus Hall in Brooklyn NY...Highs and lows are the morning observation and afternoon observation...Highs and lows could be a little higher or lower each day...

day max...min...snow...depth...

01... 32.....23.....T.......1"

02... 32.....23.....0.......1"

03... 26.....22.....0.......1"

04... 30.....20.....2"......3"

05... 25.....14.....0.......3"

06... 25.....15.....0.......3"

07... 26.....14.....0.......3"

08... 28.....20.....0.......3"

09... 32.....24.....0.......3"

10... 30.....20.....0.......2"

11... 35.....20.....0.......1"

12... 27.....18.....0.......1"

13... 25.....16.....0.......1"

14... 23.....17.....1"......2"

15... 21.....13.....2"......4"

16... 25.....11.....0.......4"

17... 26.....11.....T.......4"

18... 17.......9.....0.......4"

19... 26.....18.....0.......4"

20... 26.....18.....0.......4"

21... 38.....24.....0.......2"

22... 24.....10.....0.......2"

23... 24.......8.....0.......2"

24... 38.....26.....2"......2" might have started or ended as rain...

25... 34.....26.....1"......2" White Christmas...

26... 30.....20.....1"......3"

27... 25.....18.....0.......3"

28... 29.....21...10"....13"

29... 33.....24.....0.....13"

30... 24.....13.....0.....13"

31... 32.....18.....2"....13"

http://www.glenallen... Eastern US.pdf

 

 

 

 

Wow. That would be absolutely incredible to see a month similar to 1831 in our day and age. Not one day with a high temp above 40 degrees in December is virtually unthinkable. 1831 was during the height of the Dalton solar minimum period and near the tail end of the Little Ice Age.

 

Snow cover for the entire month of December. I'm just drooling at that record.

[Quixotic1]

*Disclaimer: The following is not a forecast but an informational post.*

 

It's very difficult to get a winter with all 4 major teleconnection indices in a favorable phase for winter, that is, a negative EPO, negative AO, negative NAO, and positive PNA -- a regime that promotes higher than normal heights essentially circumnavigating the entire Arctic region.

 

The only three winters I can find since 1950 where that occurred and yielded a colder/snowier than normal winter for the area are:

 

1977-78

1995-96

2002-03

 

What I call, the unholy trio of winters. It doesn't get better than the above in my opinion, at least in terms of the global atmospheric set-up. You're basically talking about all the stars aligning. Another important factor to consider was that 1977-78 and 1995-96 both featured a solar minimum. 2002-03 had higher solar activity. So really in terms of all variables, #1 is 1995-96, #2 is 1977-78, and #3 is 2002-03. Interestingly enough, the former two years produced more total snowfall than 2002-03.

 

 

Will we see the stars align for this upcoming winter? Only time will tell. In terms of ENSO, 1977-78 might be the best match of those years as it featured a weak El Nino.

 

 

 

 

Visiting from another sub forum and I agree with the your plots.  I came up with some different years based upon PNA, EPO, Solar, QBO, ENSO and PDO expectations.  There were three years that stuck out.  One matched every teleconnection (1977-78) and two others that matched five out of six:  1983-84 (ENSO was way different as it was a weak nina) and 1987-1988 (QBO was different).  Despite the differences between the years, they all produced the same type of pattern as depicted by your plot.  The 83-84 analog surprised me, but looked similar.  Cold kinda overwhelmed everything that year though.  Of course this will all change by the time October and November roll around.

 

Anyways, just wanted to say good choices. 

[NEG NAO]

This consistent negative trend of the NAO the last several months  is very encouraging for folks who enjoy cold and snow as long as the pattern holds through winter 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

[REDMK6GLI]

This consistent negative trend of the NAO the last several months is very encouraging for folks who enjoy cold and snow as long as the pattern holds through winter

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

The one thing that is concerning to me is the -NAO, the -EPO shows no signs of going anywhere soon. As we get towards september/october we "should" have a better idea on winter.....

[REDMK6GLI]

Getting to that time of year in a couple months where Anthony will be posting GFS runs of a 364 hour snowstorm!

[forkyfork]

the NW atlantic is roasting. i'm leaning -nao this winter

[MJO812]

Getting to that time of year in a couple months where Anthony will be posting GFS runs of a 364 hour snowstorm!

I'm counting down the days

[MJO812]

the NW atlantic is roasting. i'm leaning -nao this winter

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/

sst/sst.daily.anom.gif

Music to my weenie ears. Hopefully we get blocking this winter.

[Yanksfan]

Music to my weenie ears. Hopefully we get blocking this winter.

I like the consistency of the -NAO. If we can have that this upcoming winter along with a weak El Nino, would produce some potential phasing scenarios.