Sundog Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Joe Bastardi said that he expects the CFS to correct itself as well. Joe Bastardi would tell you he expects cold and snow in Miami if it meant more subscribers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Joe Bastardi would tell you he expects cold and snow in Miami if it meant more subscribers. I agree he hypes a bit (professional weenie), but overall his long-range forecasts and outlooks are pretty accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 IMO he lost any credibility he had with climate and long term forecasting after becoming obsessed with expecting an impending global cooling period. he nailed last winter and this summer so far. He's good in cool patterns, lousy in warm ones-completely missed the winters of 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12 which were infernos as we all remember too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 DJF what an inferno for the globe as a whole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 he nailed last winter and this summer so far. He's good in cool patterns, lousy in warm ones-completely missed the winters of 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12 which were infernos as we all remember too well.Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 I don't care what that map shows or what the final totals were. Sniffing cirrus multiple times to the south are measuring in feet blows. The Dec 19 - 21, 2009 & Feb 5-7, 2010 events were incredible. I have never seen a cutoff so sharp as those two. Watching places like Cape Map, Trenton and Cherry Hilly out perform Sussex and Newark was impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 It rained plenty in Long Beach-we had maybe 1.50" of rain before we had one flake. I remember on the LIRR that day that the ground became white early that afternoon just east of Jamaica station. Snow mixed in at home around 4pm, but soon after we had a break and snow did not start in earnest until that night. The heaviest was from 4am-6am; we had probably 2-3" per hour then. It was a very windy storm too, we had gusts easily over 50 mph. Rained over 2" I think before it dumped overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Even with all the three or four letter acronyms in the book being favorable you still need some luck to get 95-96 numbers. not saying we'd rival 95-96' as you said because luck would have to be on our side but IF all the teleconnectors do look great DJF it would be a great pattern to set up another epic run of cold and snow that we experienced this past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 If we can get that -EPO, weak el nino and a solid west based -NAO weenies will be coming out of the wood work in 95/96 numbers. Not saying it will be like that but its a fairly solid case should those three choose to work in tandem winter of 14/15 I would sign up with 2 out of 3 signals. If we ever get all three, not saying it would be '96 redux…. but there would be loads of potential in store for us. I know things could change on a dime, but encouraging signs thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Feb 5-7,2010 Manhattan: 0 Brooklyn: 2 inches Staten Island : 7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Feb 5-7,2010 Manhattan: 0 Brooklyn: 2 inches Staten Island : 7 inches Colts Neck 12. Where can I sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 I agree he hypes a bit (professional weenie), but overall his long-range forecasts and outlooks are pretty accurate. You sure about that? Are you referring to winter forecasts in general? I'd love to see some verification scores on his forecasts for say, the past 10 years. I'm genuinely curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 I had 3-4" in Bulls Head Staten Island on 2/5/2010...The biggest storm for me that year was 2/10/2010 with over a foot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Just give me the ultimate winter just once more in my lifetime with 80" of snow, tons of cold, and a blizzard of 96 redux or even better if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Just give me the ultimate winter just once more in my lifetime with 80" of snow, tons of cold, and a blizzard of 96 redux or even better if possible.I was only 10 when the blizzard of 96' occured i remember it vaguely but one thing i do remember was that was the last time i saw snow and not the drifts almost as high as my porch fence. Reaching that 24"+ snowfall threshold is nirvana and only storm that came close with accumulation for me was 2003 PDII.Watching TWC local forecast for the 96' blizzard never gets old. Thundersnow i remember as well now that i think of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 You sure about that? Are you referring to winter forecasts in general? I'd love to see some verification scores on his forecasts for say, the past 10 years. I'm genuinely curious. Winter 2008-2009 (I think he was off on this one) http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=1220 Winter 2009-2010 http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=2302 Winter 2010-2011 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-winter-forecast-1/40340 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 weren't available, but then again I could just be a bad Google-er. That's all I got lol, couldn't find much. Tried to find his 2013-2014 winter forecast, but could not locate it. He was correct with that one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Colts Neck 12. Where can I sign I had 15" in Colts Neck for 2/5/10. Tight gradient even through our town. Freehold had 16". http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/06-Feb-10.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I was only 10 when the blizzard of 96' occured i remember it vaguely but one thing i do remember was that was the last time i saw snow and not the drifts almost as high as my porch fence. Reaching that 24"+ snowfall threshold is nirvana and only storm that came close with accumulation for me was 2003 PDII. Watching TWC local forecast for the 96' blizzard never gets old. Thundersnow i remember as well now that i think of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 The 1996 blizzard is still the Holy Grail of snowstorms in this area. Just no combination like it of huge totals and winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Love watching the bit where paul kocin goes over the storm totals and forecasts. When i was younger seeing paul kocin on TWC when a snowstorm/blizzard was getting ready to hit the area was awesome! My favorite meteorologist by far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 The 1996 blizzard is still the Holy Grail of snowstorms in this area. Just no combination like it of huge totals and winds. I know you hit the nail on the head perfectly. 93' may be number one on the NESIS scale but this is #1 from DC-BOSTONS by a long shot. Not a winter goes by where i dont wish another 96' redux, just the perfect snowstorm. Lets hope as we get closer to december the winter looks just as good as 95-96' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Some things never change. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS RESOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY JANUARY 6 (DAY 3) AND INTO THE PLAINS ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4). THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE MOST DEFINITION TO THIS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS A 1010 MB LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GA/AL BORDER ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4) AND BOMBING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST (984 MB) BY MON JANUARY 8 (DAY 5). THE MRF IS MUCH MORE FRAGMENTED AND POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS ONLY A WEAK 1014 MB WAVE SHEARING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4). THE RESOLUTION OF SHORT WAVES IN THE BASE OF TROUGHS IS AN AREA THE MRF OFTEN DOES A POOR JOB WITH....WE ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 1995-96 had many coastal storms...Most of them brought North to northeast winds...If all the storms were all snow NYC could of had 100" that winter...the December 9th storm changed to rain...Same for the December 14th storm...The December 19-20th storm mixed with ice and sleet...January 2-3 was a mixed bag...January 12th changed to rain...March 8th started as rain...March 29th changed to rain and back to snow...April 10th's snow was so wet it didn't accumulate much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Some things never change. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS RESOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY JANUARY 6 (DAY 3) AND INTO THE PLAINS ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4). THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE MOST DEFINITION TO THIS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS A 1010 MB LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GA/AL BORDER ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4) AND BOMBING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST (984 MB) BY MON JANUARY 8 (DAY 5). THE MRF IS MUCH MORE FRAGMENTED AND POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS ONLY A WEAK 1014 MB WAVE SHEARING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4). THE RESOLUTION OF SHORT WAVES IN THE BASE OF TROUGHS IS AN AREA THE MRF OFTEN DOES A POOR JOB WITH....WE ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF." Just amazing how the EURO has been one of if not the most consistent model with east coast cyclogenesis. Especially with sandy, authur and our recent big coastal storms the past several years. Except the gradient pattern we saw for a period this previous winter, the GFS actually performed better as whole. A blind squirrel sometimes does find the nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 NYC Feb 11-12, 2006 : 26.9 inches Feb 25-26,2010 : 20.9 inches Jan 7-8, 1996 : 20.2 inches http://www.weather2000.com/NY_Snowstorms.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 NYC Feb 11-12, 2006 : 26.9 inches Feb 25-26,2010 : 20.9 inches Jan 7-8, 1996 : 20.2 inches http://www.weather2000.com/NY_Snowstorms.html I'm pretty sure the accumulations of 3-5" during the late morning early afternoon on the 8th were not factored in to the parks totals. That number should have been revised to 23-25". And even that is under estimate by a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I'm pretty sure the accumulations of 3-5" during the late morning early afternoon on the 8th were not factored in to the parks totals. That number should have been revised to 23-25". And even that is under estimate by a few inches. Many areas around NYC and especially on LI were a bit low on totals for 96' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Many areas around NYC and especially on LI were a bit low on totals for 96' I was only 10 when the blizzard of 96' occured i remember it vaguely but one thing i do remember was that was the last time i saw snow and not the drifts almost as high as my porch fence. Reaching that 24"+ snowfall threshold is nirvana and only storm that came close with accumulation for me was 2003 PDII. Watching TWC local forecast for the 96' blizzard never gets old. Thundersnow i remember as well now that i think of it The 2/11/1983 storm was better & more exciting than the 1/7/1996 storm, IMO. Snow came in like a wall that Friday afternoon with thunder & lightning & 3 to 4 inches per hour. It was over 18 hours after it started...but between the wind, the 18 degree cold, and everything else...one of the best storms in a long time. I had it rated as the best on Long Island since the '78 storm...but I was forced to supplant it with the 2/8/13 storm which topped 30 inches in a few spots out here. Its weird how that 12/18/09 event, which put down up to 27 inches has been almost completely forgotten...I attribute it to the fact that it happened on a weekend overnight and there had been soo many more snow events around that time then there were 25 years earlier that it did not seem so out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 The 2/11/1983 storm was better & more exciting than the 1/7/1996 storm, IMO. Snow came in like a wall that Friday afternoon with thunder & lightning & 3 to 4 inches per hour. It was over 18 hours after it started...but between the wind, the 18 degree cold, and everything else...one of the best storms in a long time. I had it rated as the best on Long Island since the '78 storm...but I was forced to supplant it with the 2/8/13 storm which topped 30 inches in a few spots out here. Its weird how that 12/18/09 event, which put down up to 27 inches has been almost completely forgotten...I attribute it to the fact that it happened on a weekend overnight and there had been soo many more snow events around that time then there were 25 years earlier that it did not seem so out of the ordinary. I remember the 83 storm very well. The snow started around 10:00 in the morning and accumulated a few inches by mid afternoon. I was driving home from work around 4:00 when the wall of snow came . It was pretty awesome.We had thunder and lightning around 6 or 7:00 It snowed until about 4:00 am the next morning. We ended up with 23 inches in Northport. The temp was about 19 degrees during most of the storm. As good as it was the 78 storm still blows them all away where I live. A true raging blizzard, 27 inches at my house. Much more wind than 83 or 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Feb 11-12,2006 Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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