PB GFI Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Don't know if anyone cares... just my opinion, among many others. Here's my DJF 2014-15 temperature forecast (strictly analog-based): Notes: 1) Cross-posting to the MA and NE forums... apologies for cluttering if you follow all of them 2) I have a model which detrends old data, which is why I can use old analogs, but... 3) ...for that reason, for map generation, I use the anomaly to the 1895-2000 period 4) ...but you should consider the anomaly as being to the current climo period (1981-2010) 5) If you want to know my analog years, you can see them in small print at the top of the map 6) If you want to know why some years appear more than once, it's my way of up-weighting the better analogs 7) I don't expect you to agree 100% on my analogs (through my own analyses I've come up with some parameters I use that I'm pretty sure no one else does. I also don't use some parameters that most folks do. And even those parameters common amongst all forecasters - I may be giving them different weighting). So, don't flip out if you don't agree with my analogs - just accept it as a difference of opinion. 8) Precip is, surprisingly, a little below normal on the East Coast in these analog seasons. But it's marginal. I didn't look at snow, but I imagine in areas where precip type is typically an issue, the solid cold anomaly will override the weak dry anomaly for an above normal snowfall winter. Colder/interior locales, where precip type is usually snow, may run a bit below normal (but probably not much, as the cold anomalies may help them on the edge of the season - when they DO have ptype issues; and, if it's colder than normal during the events, ratios could be aided). 9) Like most folks appear to agree on... my analogs reflect something similar... a back-weighted winter. Dec is cold, but nothing special. Jan/Feb drive the DJF anomalies. As per Joe D`Aleo , Snowfall during the El Nino winters with a deep east QBO. Agree`s with Cold but average precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Part 2 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Looks like ESRL clears their cache occasionally (I noticed my images on here are gone). Plus, I re-did my analogs in a slightly different way. If doesn't alter my forecast much - and shouldn't, because the signals are essentially the same in the additional analog years. But my precipitation forecast comes closer to normal along the East Coast (not surprisingly - as I think a dry forecast, though plausible, is a little suspect). So, re-posting my forecast (you can see my other comments/caveats up-thread)... Here's DJFM temps: ...and precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Looks like ESRL clears their cache occasionally (I noticed my images on here are gone). Plus, I re-did my analogs in a slightly different way. If doesn't alter my forecast much - and shouldn't, because the signals are essentially the same in the additional analog years. But my precipitation forecast comes closer to normal along the East Coast (not surprisingly - as I think a dry forecast, though plausible, is a little suspect). So, re-posting my forecast (you can see my other comments/caveats up-thread)... Here's DJFM temps: ...and precip: the precipitation map looks good to me because it hints of coastal lows....some years like 58-59 had very few...years like 77-78 had many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 So how did the OPI finish for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Sure, why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I like this look . Compliments of WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 From the looks of that map, I would say a -AO/-NAO pattern is highly likely this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 the last 22 years had 10 good to great winters...three average and nine poor... season...snowfall...largest snowfalls1995-96.....75.6".....20.2"...10.7".....7.7"...7.5"...2010-11.....61.9".....20.0"...19.0".....9.1" 2013-14.....57.4".....12.5"...11.5".....8.0"...6.4"1993-94.....53.4".....12.8".....9.0"2009-10.....51.4".....10.9"...10.0"...20.9"2002-03.....49.3".....19.8".....6.0"2003-04.....42.6".....14.0"...10.3"2004-05.....41.0".....13.8".....7.7".....6.0"2005-06.....40.0".....26.9"2000-01.....35.0".....12.0".....6.0"2008-09.....27.6".......8.3" 2012-13.....26.1".....11.4"1992-93.....24.6".....10.6"1999-00.....16.3".......5.5"1998-99.....12.7".......4.5"2006-07.....12.4".......5.5"2007-08.....11.9".......6.0"1994-95.....11.8".....10.8"1996-97.....10.0".......3.5"2011-12.......7.4".......4.3"1997-98.......5.5".......5.0"2001-02.......3.5".......3.0" 13 of the last 22 winters had a storm at least 10" or more...five had at least two...nine had 40 or more inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 From the looks of that map, I would say a -AO/-NAO pattern is highly likely this winter! Prospects for a -NAO/-AO winter are pretty high thats for sure. Only fly i would see in the ointment is if the pacific can cooperate for a period as well, not very many times we get to see them work in tandem. When they do DC-BOSTON can cash in big time! Really cant ask for a better set up going into and through november and into december IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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