Early discussion Winter 2014/15

[Stormlover74]

I must say I am hilarious...though no one ever laughs at my jokes....

I thought it was funny though I don't know sundogs age

[uncle W]

I like how three of the top 5 month occurred in the last four years, pretty epic period indeed.

since 1896 NYC has seen 30" of snow in 30 days ten times...2011 had 56.0" in a 33 day period...the second number is 33 days...

02/24-03/24, 1896...32.0".....32.0"

02/06-03/07, 1914...35.2".....35.2"

12/26-01/24, 1948...41.4".....43.9"

01/15-02/13, 1961...34.1".....34.9"

01/16-02/14, 1978...37.2".....40.2"

02/02-03/03, 1994...30.8".....31.4"

12/14-01/12, 1996...35.2".....35.2"

01/28-02/26, 2010...38.2".....38.2"

01/07-02/05, 2011...37.6".....56.0" 12/26-01/27

01/21-02/14, 2014...42.1".....42.1"

I've been alive for last seven...only three before 1949...

[forkyfork]

leave bayonne alone

[Absolute Humidity]

since 1896 NYC has seen 30" of snow in 30 days ten times...2011 had 56.0" in a 33 day period...the second number is 33 days...

02/24-03/24, 1896...32.0".....32.0"

02/06-03/07, 1914...35.2".....35.2"

12/26-01/24, 1948...41.4".....43.9"

01/15-02/13, 1961...34.1".....34.9"

01/16-02/14, 1978...37.2".....40.2"

02/02-03/03, 1994...30.8".....31.4"

12/14-01/12, 1996...35.2".....35.2"

01/28-02/26, 2010...38.2".....38.2"

01/07-02/05, 2011...37.6".....56.0" 12/26-01/27

01/21-02/14, 2014...42.1".....42.1"

I've been alive for last seven...only three before 1949...

Pretty amazing stats. Only proves furthermore that the good ole days are now.

[bluewave]

Ideal conditions in recent years for blocking leading to enhanced winter snowfall.

This study just focusing on 2012-2013 featured the early November snow after

Sandy followed by the record February blizzard.

 

http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2368-1?utm_content=buffer47b51&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

 

Role of sea surface temperature, Arctic sea ice and Siberian snow in forcing the atmospheric circulation in winter of 2012–2013

 

Abstract

During the 2012–2013 winter, the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predominated, resulting in a cold winter over Europe and northern Asia punctuated by episodes of frigid weather. This climate anomaly is part of a recent trend towards negative values of the NAO index that has occurred over recent winters. The negative trend of the NAO may be related to atmospheric internal variability but it may also be partly forced by slowly varying components of the climate system. In the present study, we investigate the influence of surface conditions on the atmospheric circulation for the 2012–2013 winter using an atmospheric global climate model. In particular, the role of low Arctic sea ice concentration, warm tropical/North Atlantic sea surface temperature and positive Siberian snow cover anomalies are isolated by prescribing them in a set of different numerical experiments. Our simulations suggest that each of these surface forcings favored a negative NAO during the 2012–2013 winter. In our model, the combined NAO response to tropical/North Atlantic SST, Arctic sea ice and Siberian snow anomalies accounts for about 30 % of the observed NAO anomaly. Different physical mechanisms are explored to elucidate the atmospheric responses and are shown to involve both tropical and extratropical processes.

[RedSky]

since 1896 NYC has seen 30" of snow in 30 days ten times...2011 had 56.0" in a 33 day period...the second number is 33 days...

02/24-03/24, 1896...32.0".....32.0"

02/06-03/07, 1914...35.2".....35.2"

12/26-01/24, 1948...41.4".....43.9"

01/15-02/13, 1961...34.1".....34.9"

01/16-02/14, 1978...37.2".....40.2"

02/02-03/03, 1994...30.8".....31.4"

12/14-01/12, 1996...35.2".....35.2"

01/28-02/26, 2010...38.2".....38.2"

01/07-02/05, 2011...37.6".....56.0" 12/26-01/27

01/21-02/14, 2014...42.1".....42.1"

I've been alive for last seven...only three before 1949...

NYC must have just missed 30" in 2003

[earthlight]

Some of my thoughts visualized thanks to our friends in the SE Forum...

 

Here is the October SST anomaly pattern preceding the 10 most negative NAO winters on record.

 

 

And here is the 2-week SST anomaly loop showing the cold pool developing in a textbook area while the anomalies near the East Coast and Western Atlantic remain average to warm

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Some of my thoughts visualized thanks to our friends in the SE Forum...

 

Here is the October SST anomaly pattern preceding the 10 most negative NAO winters on record.

 

 

And here is the 2-week SST anomaly loop showing the cold pool developing in a textbook area while the anomalies near the East Coast and Western Atlantic remain average to warm

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

 

It's pretty close. One thing for sure, I noticed that the ENSO region looks pretty interesting. The warm SSTs have been propagating westward for the past two weeks. 

[Neblizzard]

It's pretty close. One thing for sure, I noticed that the ENSO region looks pretty interesting. The warm SSTs have been propagating westward for the past two weeks. [/quote

Looks to be taking on the classic North Atlantic SST tripole configuration. Excellent trends so far...let's keep it up.

[soadforecaster]

Surprised no one is talking about the 12 gfs, I know there is no chance of it happening but it does look promising for winter. Typical set up with a low driving into Canada and dropping a cold front over the region. Then a storm develop on the tail of the cold front and comes up the coast.

[SnoSki14]

Nor'easter for Halloween? Probably not but the 12z Gfs is a much colder look. The teleconnections favor warmth though with a +AO/NAO and a -PNA for end of October into November.

[bluewave]

NYC must have just missed 30" in 2003

 

It was very close. JFK got into the better banding for PD2 and recorded 33.2" from 1/19-2/17.

NYC was just short with 28.6".

[earthlight]

It's pretty close. One thing for sure, I noticed that the ENSO region looks pretty interesting. The warm SSTs have been propagating westward for the past two weeks. 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

Could we be going for an El Nino Modoki?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Could we be going for an El Nino Modoki?

Would you mind explaining?

[REDMK6GLI]

Would you mind explaining?

X2 and what impact would this have on our snow and cold for the upcoming winter season?

[Weathergun]

Could we be going for an El Nino Modoki?

We are far from it still looking today's SST anomalies. Warmest anomalies still close to South America coast.

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

We are far from it still looking today's SST anomalies. Warmest anomalies still close to South America coast.

The warmest anamolies are pushing westward and Nino 1 and 2 are warming slowly (much slower than during the past few weeks). A Central Based El Nino is starting to become likely for DJF. Check out the JMA, it also thinks so too.

[TeleConnectSnow]

CFSv2 12z run today on WB shows a very cold look to it, change from its previous runs. I mean wow, I would take it in a heartbeat. 

[NEG NAO]

According to the 6Z GFS snow cover across Canada is going to dramatically increase as we go through next week extending all the way down into the NYC metro by next weekend

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=06&fhour=180&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[uncle W]

The storm track which is the most important piece of the puzzle is in place...It will fluctuate at times...If it materializes in January or February we will get our share of snow...I'm optimistic...for now...

[Weathergun]

Will be interesting to see if Ana causes more upwelling of cooler waters in the NE Pacific and enhances GOA low/trough next week.

[NEG NAO]

Euro Looks interesting next weekend

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014102512/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

[EasternLI]

cfbaggett's chart from the main forum, if anyone hasn't seen it. Snow cover is fantastic this year, I'm certainly optimistic about the winter when considered with other factors. Doesn't mean we automatically do well wrt snow this year, as you all (should) know.

 

[millwx]

Don't know if anyone cares... just my opinion, among many others.  Here's my DJF 2014-15 temperature forecast (strictly analog-based):

 

 

Notes:

 

1) Cross-posting to the MA and NE forums... apologies for cluttering if you follow all of them

2) I have a model which detrends old data, which is why I can use old analogs, but...

3) ...for that reason, for map generation, I use the anomaly to the 1895-2000 period

4) ...but you should consider the anomaly as being to the current climo period (1981-2010)

5) If you want to know my analog years, you can see them in small print at the top of the map

6) If you want to know why some years appear more than once, it's my way of up-weighting the better analogs

7) I don't expect you to agree 100% on my analogs (through my own analyses I've come up with some parameters I use that I'm pretty sure no one else does.  I also don't use some parameters that most folks do.  And even those parameters common amongst all forecasters - I may be giving them different weighting).  So, don't flip out if you don't agree with my analogs - just accept it as a difference of opinion.

8) Precip is, surprisingly, a little below normal on the East Coast in these analog seasons.  But it's marginal.  I didn't look at snow, but I imagine in areas where precip type is typically an issue, the solid cold anomaly will override the weak dry anomaly for an above normal snowfall winter.  Colder/interior locales, where precip type is usually snow, may run a bit below normal (but probably not much, as the cold anomalies may help them on the edge of the season - when they DO have ptype issues; and, if it's colder than normal during the events, ratios could be aided).

9) Like most folks appear to agree on... my analogs reflect something similar... a back-weighted winter.  Dec is cold, but nothing special.  Jan/Feb drive the DJF anomalies.

[REDMK6GLI]

MillWx i agree with this forecase and most importantly with the back-ended winter part. Long range model lately have been pushing the ridging in the west and troughing in the east back little by little each day. December i still feel we may still have some legit snow threats to track but when january and febraury roll around it may be rockin' on here with cold/snow threats more frequent.

The record snow cover is also aiding out possibilities of a predominant -AO as well. Only wild card(s) IMO would be a consistent -NAO/+PNA tandem. I know it doesnt gaurantee a snowstorm on the EC but it can only help especially with a weak to possibly moderate El Nino developing. Stratospheric warming? Looks good right now but lets see how it can deliver for us through DJF.

[EasternLI]

Thanks for posting millwx, hope it verifies. Also, great contributions in the snow cover thread on the main board. Great stuff

[uncle W]

Don't know if anyone cares... just my opinion, among many others.  Here's my DJF 2014-15 temperature forecast (strictly analog-based):

 

 

Notes:

 

1) Cross-posting to the MA and NE forums... apologies for cluttering if you follow all of them

2) I have a model which detrends old data, which is why I can use old analogs, but...

3) ...for that reason, for map generation, I use the anomaly to the 1895-2000 period

4) ...but you should consider the anomaly as being to the current climo period (1981-2010)

5) If you want to know my analog years, you can see them in small print at the top of the map

6) If you want to know why some years appear more than once, it's my way of up-weighting the better analogs

7) I don't expect you to agree 100% on my analogs (through my own analyses I've come up with some parameters I use that I'm pretty sure no one else does.  I also don't use some parameters that most folks do.  And even those parameters common amongst all forecasters - I may be giving them different weighting).  So, don't flip out if you don't agree with my analogs - just accept it as a difference of opinion.

8) Precip is, surprisingly, a little below normal on the East Coast in these analog seasons.  But it's marginal.  I didn't look at snow, but I imagine in areas where precip type is typically an issue, the solid cold anomaly will override the weak dry anomaly for an above normal snowfall winter.  Colder/interior locales, where precip type is usually snow, may run a bit below normal (but probably not much, as the cold anomalies may help them on the edge of the season - when they DO have ptype issues; and, if it's colder than normal during the events, ratios could be aided).

9) Like most folks appear to agree on... my analogs reflect something similar... a back-weighted winter.  Dec is cold, but nothing special.  Jan/Feb drive the DJF anomalies.

precipitation doesn't look great for those analogs but 2002-03, 1940-41, 1977-78, 1946-47 had above average snowfall in KNYC with at least one major storm...1939-40, 1976-77, 1958-59 were very cold...1941-42 was cold after a slow start in December...1985-86 wasn't cold or snowy...1958-59, 1941-42 had much below average snowfall along with 1985-86...1939-40 and 1976-77 had near average snowfall...

edit...

the analogs average 31.8 for DJF in NYC...winter minimum averages 6.6 degrees...Snowfall averages 28.0"...about average...biggest snowfall averages 10.5"...Just the average of these winters is a good winter imho...

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The interesting thing about the ENSO is that Nino 1+2 have cooled a bit recently and the warm waters are propagating westward.

[millwx]

precipitation doesn't look great for those analogs but 2002-03, 1940-41, 1977-78, 1946-47 had above average snowfall in KNYC with at least one major storm...1939-40, 1976-77, 1958-59 were very cold...1941-42 was cold after a slow start in December...1985-86 wasn't cold or snowy...1958-59, 1941-42 had much below average snowfall along with 1985-86...1939-40 and 1976-77 had near average snowfall...

 

Yep, not even sure I agree with my own analogs in that regard (+ENSO = dry East Coast?  huh?).  But... I just fed the data into my model and those seasons were the result.  There were a couple of oddly warm outlier seasons, but the one that was really off the wall was 1985-86.  If I were to make my own personal forecast, with subjective adjustments, I'd toss any season out that does not fit the general, expected pattern... 1985-86 would be one I'd toss to the curb.  But, for the sake of being objective, I just wanted to show you the direct results of the analogs.