REDMK6GLI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 lol ok Sorry ....... Lol all good my friend i can take the internet game Winter looks fairly appetizing so far we will see what it shows in a few weeks probably around the second week of november Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Is there any well known MET not forecasting a cold, snowy winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Is there any well known MET not forecasting a cold, snowy winter? NOAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Is there any well known MET not forecasting a cold, snowy winter? None that I know of (besides NOAA, as PB GFI noted). Many are warm Dec (I'm not), but when you toss in Jan/Feb, I don't know anyone who's not cold. Just too hard to go against such obvious signals. My only real concern (though I don't know if this one factor would torpedo the whole winter), is if the GOA goes cool. Some nasty trends there lately and could continue for a while longer. That said, it's still warm, all seasonal SST forecasts keep it warm, and it's only one factor among many. So, it gives me a little concern, but not very concerned at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 since 1947-48... 1947-48...30.0 1948-49...38.5 1955-56...32.7 1957-58...33.3 1959-60...36.2 1960-61...31.7 1963-64...33.3 1966-67...34.1 1968-69...32.9 1977-78...30.3 1993-94...31.2 1995-96...32.3 2000-01...33.5 2002-03...31.2 2003-04...32.4 2004-05...35.4 2005-06...37.3 2009-10...33.8 2010-11...32.7 2013-14...32.9 average...33.3 We only need to do a -1.8 departure for DJF to hit that number. Luckily, the quickly rising February average temperatures haven't hurt us so far. Snowiest Februaries at NYC: February36.9 201027.9 193426.9 200626.4 1994 26.3 1926 26.1 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 DT was alluding to the same thing...not as cold as last year and fewer snow events, but greater potential for larger events. That would seem to be more in line with 2009-10...not saying we'll have 4 HECS' but 1 or 2 would be nice. I don't need highs in the teens and 15 small to moderate snow events if we can get one or two big ones. Just goes to show how spoiled we've been in the past decade or so. Of course, I do not disagree Also, awesome post by John. I'm growing more and more excited about what this winter may have in store for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Just goes to show how spoiled we've been in the past decade or so. Of course, I do not disagree Also, awesome post by John. I'm growing more and more excited about what this winter may have in store for us! Between 1983 and 1993, NYC didn't record a single storm greater than 10 inches. I don't think I can handle a stretch like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 None that I know of (besides NOAA, as PB GFI noted). Many are warm Dec (I'm not), but when you toss in Jan/Feb, I don't know anyone who's not cold. Just too hard to go against such obvious signals. My only real concern (though I don't know if this one factor would torpedo the whole winter), is if the GOA goes cool. Some nasty trends there lately and could continue for a while longer. That said, it's still warm, all seasonal SST forecasts keep it warm, and it's only one factor among many. So, it gives me a little concern, but not very concerned at this point. You said it the GOA is a pretty important aspect, if that goes the wrong way winter is DOA my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 You said it the GOA is a pretty important aspect, if that goes the wrong way winter is DOA my friend Never as clear-cut as that. That's why I said I'm not sure it can torpedo the season with everything else favorable. (No matter, I do anticipate the GOA holding warm... even if only modestly.) 2010-11 is a good example of the GOA/PDO not being able to jack up the winter... DJF SSTAs: DJF U.S. Temp Anomalies: Granted, the GOA wasn't THAT cool in that example, but it was leaning cool. You gotta kind of know what the drivers are. They can be different depending on the season (it largely depends on the strength of the anomalies... one year one factor (or a few factors) may be the driver because it has an intense anomaly; another year that predictor may have a weak anomaly - placing some other factor(s) in control). Clearly, if the GOA gets VERY cold, that's probably going to be a serious problem. But if it cools to normal or even slightly cool, I'm not sure the season will be done in by that. If that happens over the next 4-8 weeks, I'd certainly be worried... but I'm not certain it'll do us in. (I'd reiterate that I expect this discussion to be a moot point... I'm expecting GOA SSTAs to remain positive - if weakened. So, I'm really not terribly concerned, despite recent cooling. I'm just playing "what if" here.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Between 1983 and 1993, NYC didn't record a single storm greater than 10 inches. I don't think I can handle a stretch like that again. NYC was very unlucky during that period, and I'd be surprised if it's repeated any time soon. The 80s were fairly snowy for the Mid-Atlantic up through CNJ. A few positive factors we have going forward: 1) Longer term / decadal negative NAO cycle resuming, which parallels the -PDO periods to some extent, 2) Decreased solar constant which tends to produce longer duration blocking episodes, 3) Colder Atlantic decadal cycle probably resumes (-AMO) in another 5-7 years, tends to correlate w/ a greater frequency of -NAO winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The receding Arctic sea ice cover during this very strong +AMO era has also helped to boost the October to winter blocking pattern since dropping below 6 million sq km in September 2002. http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 NYC had two big snow droughts...between February 1969 and January 1978 almost nine years...Between February 1983 and March 1993...ten years...from 1969-70 to 1976-77 KNYC's best shots... 1969-70...December 26th-27th storm turned to rain after 6"...Could have been 15"...March 29th 1970...Snow started as rain...4" could have been a foot... 1970-71 had at least two storms that were heavy snow inland but mostly rain along the coast...1971-72 had a storm in February that turned to rain...6" could have been 15" if it was a little colder...1972-73 had a few cold rain events that could have been heavy snow... 1973-74 had a storm in February that gave Freehold 11" but NYC picked up only 2"...1974-75 had an 8" snow that was a fast mover...1975-76 had storms in December and February that were just to far east to give us heavy snow...1976-77 really didn't have a major snowfall threat... 1983-84 had a major storm on March 29th that was a mixed bag...The poconos got two feet while NYC got 4" of slush...1984-85 really did't have a major threat...1985-86 the same...1986-87 had a fwe that passed to far south...One turned to rain after 8" fell...1987-88 came close on November 11th...February had a storm that started as snow but turned to heavy rain...The Poconos got over a foot...1988-89 had a near miss in February...1989-90 didn't have a major threat...1990-91 had a storm that turned to rain in January...5" could have been 12"...1991-92 didn't have any...I'm going on memory so I could have left some threats out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 NYC had two big snow droughts...between February 1969 and January 1978 almost nine years...Between February 1983 and March 1993...ten years...from 1969-70 to 1976-77 KNYC's best shots... 1969-70...December 26th-27th storm turned to rain after 6"...Could have been 15"...March 29th 1970...Snow started as rain...4" could have been a foot... 1970-71 had at least two storms that were heavy snow inland but mostly rain along the coast...1971-72 had a storm in February that turned to rain...6" could have been 15" if it was a little colder...1972-73 had a few cold rain events that could have been heavy snow... 1973-74 had a storm in February that gave Freehold 11" but NYC picked up only 2"...1974-75 had an 8" snow that was a fast mover...1975-76 had storms in December and February that were just to far east to give us heavy snow...1976-77 really didn't have a major snowfall threat... 1983-84 had a major storm on March 29th that was a mixed bag...The poconos got two feet while NYC got 4" of slush...1984-85 really did't have a major threat...1985-86 the same...1986-87 had a fwe that passed to far south...One turned to rain after 8" fell...1987-88 came close on November 11th...February had a storm that started as snow but turned to heavy rain...The Poconos got over a foot...1988-89 had a near miss in February...1989-90 didn't have a major threat...1990-91 had a storm that turned to rain in January...5" could have been 12"...1991-92 didn't have any...I'm going on memory so I could have left some threats out... Right during the heart of the -AMO era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 So I wonder how long this active well above average snowfall/storm cycle will continue. Surely we will eventually revert back to the multiple snow drought lack of big storm years of the past. It's just amazing when you really step back and see how insanely good we have had it and something that hasn't been seen in decades really. Since 2000, there have been only 3 or 4 duds (2001/2, 2007/8, 2011/12, and for some 2006/7 though that back end of winter was nuts with those sleet storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 NOAASeems like they go warm every winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Seems like they go warm every winterBelieve I read somewhere that they haven't predicted a colder than normal winter in the ne during the last 15 years... have had 8 winters below normal here since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Seems like they go warm every winter Yup. If it's any consolation though, at least nationally I don't ever recall them having a forecast as cold as this one (tho STILL probably a little above normal... but I just don't ever recall a cold winter forecast from them). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 So I wonder how long this active well above average snowfall/storm cycle will continue. Surely we will eventually revert back to the multiple snow drought lack of big storm years of the past. It's just amazing when you really step back and see how insanely good we have had it and something that hasn't been seen in decades really. Since 2000, there have been only 3 or 4 duds (2001/2, 2007/8, 2011/12, and for some 2006/7 though that back end of winter was nuts with those sleet storms) New little Ice age multi-cycle solar Maunder Minimum underway is one potential explanation. http://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2014/01/20/sun-flatlining-into-grand-minimum-says-solar-physicist/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 To be honest, I didn't think last winter was that impressively cold for our area when you total the entire DJF period. It was undoubtedly much colder than normal, departures generally -1 to -2, but nowhere near as impressive as the snowfall. For NJ, 2013-14 DJF ranked 34th coldest out of 120 winters. So slightly less than 1/3 of all winters were colder than last year. Imagine if the mean trough were centered over the east coast -- we would've had brutal temperatures. Much of the M/W had its coldest winter since 1976 or coldest on record. We were literally on the periphery of those anomalous temperatures departures -- really just getting a taste of its severity from time to time. Basically what I'm saying is that one could probably argue the following: the probability of seeing a colder winter than last year locally is higher than the probability of seeing a snowier winter than last year. Many of our big hitting winters featured a colder than normal Dec, Jan, and Feb. Last winter's quite mild December skewed the 3 month average even though J/F were extremely impressive. But I agree with most of your points. There are a couple concerns that could tilt us away from a good winter, which is why I think waiting another 3 weeks is a good idea. Yeah, I should have at least referenced that I was referring to a broader area than just the NYC subforum when I referenced last year. And I agree regarding the probabilities as well..in our area at least, this winter has equal or better chances of topping last years exact statistics when it comes to temperature. What I was trying to say, in essence, was that I think the intensity and duration of the cold will be much less..and I don't think we'll see the dramatic PV displacements we saw last year. At least at this point, I'm pretty confident in that. But I think this will favor us in the end, with a really good cold air source to our north and a pattern capable of producing big storm systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Yeah, I should have at least referenced that I was referring to a broader area than just the NYC subforum when I referenced last year. And I agree regarding the probabilities as well..in our area at least, this winter has equal or better chances of topping last years exact statistics when it comes to temperature. What I was trying to say, in essence, was that I think the intensity and duration of the cold will be much less..and I don't think we'll see the dramatic PV displacements we saw last year. At least at this point, I'm pretty confident in that. But I think this will favor us in the end, with a really good cold air source to our north and a pattern capable of producing big storm systems. heading into November the teleconnectors IMO look a lot better than last year. the -AO/NAO look to be predominant this year. also the atlantic SSTA's look great as well. hard to NOT get excited headed into this winter that's for sure. November 1st on we will all be hammering in those winter forecasts that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The Greater New York area has been on an exceptional role, snow wise, for at least 14 years...despite a few duds thrown in ('02, '07,'08, '12)...things look pretty optimistic at this point for another good one...I just wonder when the law of averages...a.k.a. snow climatology...catches up with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The Greater New York area has been on an exceptional role, snow wise, for at least 14 years...despite a few duds thrown in ('02, '07,'08, '12)...things look pretty optimistic at this point for another good one...I just wonder when the law of averages...a.k.a. snow climatology...catches up with us. at this point we would need to get another 83'-93' snow drought to offset the winters of the 2000's. But hey, that's why its called an average you lump in the high and low and boom there you go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 at this point we would need to get another 83'-93' snow drought to offset the winters of the 2000's. But hey, that's why its called an average you lump in the high and low and boom there you go! Yep. Our luck is going to run out sooner or later, but I doubt we'll be seeing those long snow droughts like back in the 80's. I believe Steve Demartino mentioned in his winter forecast that we are entering a multi-year pattern of -NAO regimes in the winter seasons to come. So we will probably see a dud year thrown in every now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 at this point we would need to get another 83'-93' snow drought to offset the winters of the 2000's. But hey, that's why its called an average you lump in the high and low and boom there you go! The point I always like to stress is that, in the long run...you can't fight climatology...in the long run...Albany is generally going to be at least twice as snowy as NYC...this area has done a pretty fair job of sparring with it for a really long time...so long that I would raise the possibility that a minor shift may well be afoot regarding East Coast snow climatology...after all, the length of the climate record for most of this area is very short compared to the amount of time since the last retreat of the glaciers...as with everything else, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 To be honest, I didn't think last winter was that impressively cold for our area when you total the entire DJF period. It was undoubtedly much colder than normal, departures generally -1 to -2, but nowhere near as impressive as the snowfall. For NJ, 2013-14 DJF ranked 34th coldest out of 120 winters. So slightly less than 1/3 of all winters were colder than last year. Imagine if the mean trough were centered over the east coast -- we would've had brutal temperatures. Much of the M/W had its coldest winter since 1976 or coldest on record. We were literally on the periphery of those anomalous temperatures departures -- really just getting a taste of its severity from time to time. Basically what I'm saying is that one could probably argue the following: the probability of seeing a colder winter than last year locally is higher than the probability of seeing a snowier winter than last year. Many of our big hitting winters featured a colder than normal Dec, Jan, and Feb. Last winter's quite mild December skewed the 3 month average even though J/F were extremely impressive. But I agree with most of your points. There are a couple concerns that could tilt us away from a good winter, which is why I think waiting another 3 weeks is a good idea. it was mild compared to jan 2004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 We only need to do a -1.8 departure for DJF to hit that number. Luckily, the quickly rising February average temperatures haven't hurt us so far. Snowiest Februaries at NYC: February36.9 201027.9 193426.9 200626.4 1994 26.3 1926 26.1 2003 snowiest months ave temperature... 36.9" Feb 2010.....33.1 36.0" Jan 2011.....29.7 30.5" Mar 1896.....32.6 29.6" Dec 1947.....34.0 29.0" Feb 2014.....31.6 27.9" Feb 1934.....19.9 27.4" Jan 1925.....28.4 27.0" Dec 1872.....26.7 26.9" Feb 2006.....35.7 26.4" Feb 1994.....30.6 26.3" Feb 1926.....29.2 26.1" Jan 1996.....30.5 26.1" Feb 2003.....30.1 25.5" Mar 1916.....32.4 25.3" Dec 1948.....38.3 25.3" Feb 1899.....27.9 25.3" Feb 1920.....28.5 ...................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 snowiest months ave temperature... 36.9" Feb 2010.....33.1 36.0" Jan 2011.....29.7 30.5" Mar 1896.....32.6 29.6" Dec 1947.....34.0 29.0" Feb 2014.....31.6 27.9" Feb 1934.....19.9 27.4" Jan 1925.....28.4 27.0" Dec 1872.....26.7 26.9" Feb 2006.....35.7 26.4" Feb 1994.....30.6 26.3" Feb 1926.....29.2 26.1" Jan 1996.....30.5 26.1" Feb 2003.....30.1 25.5" Mar 1916.....32.4 25.3" Dec 1948.....38.3 25.3" Feb 1899.....27.9 25.3" Feb 1920.....28.5 ...................................... I like how three of the top 5 month occurred in the last four years, pretty epic period indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 it was mild compared to jan 2004 January 2004 was brutally cold! I remember I was sick for a couple days and didn't go to school (senior year) and never saw so many near or sub zero readings during the day that month. last year was cold but 2004 IMO felt ALOT worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 January 2004 was brutally cold! I remember I was sick for a couple days and didn't go to school (senior year) and never saw so many near or sub zero readings during the day that month. last year was cold but 2004 IMO felt ALOT worseYeah the only other time I've experienced below zero temps (besides this past winter) was in January of that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Between 1983 and 1993, NYC didn't record a single storm greater than 10 inches. I don't think I can handle a stretch like that again.At least that period ended in a bang with the '93 Superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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