Stormlover74 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I'm saying that I don't want the cold that we had last winter. Just give me 20's and 30's and I will take my chance with a coastal hugger. Right but a storm could still be suppressed to the south without a huge PV over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 It gets thrown around a lot every year. But whatever, that will never stop. In all seriousness, without giving too much of our winter forecast away, I think the strat background state is one of the better I've seen going in. The AO looks likely to remain negative throughout much of the winter and that can't be understated. The presence of blocking within the forecast pattern will bring us to a powderkeg-potential at any time. There are a few things which could change the game including the Pacific /PDO state as well as what exactly happens with the El Nino. A few on here have gone into great detail on Modoki El Nino's and how they benefit us. If you have the time I suggest doing some research on it. The SSTAs are almost ridiculously perfect in the Atlantic right now when you consider the pre-loading pattern for a -NAO winter which followed. A lot of this can be blown out of proportion but it really is an ideal situation right now in many aspects. Obviously there are still a few weeks before we can really start talking about details. But I have been asked by a few people what my thoughts are and these are them. I think there's the potential for us to start off with a mild November and moving forward into DEcember things could be quiet. As the pattern transitions I think the storm formation pattern will lean towards SWFE's for the first week or two of that month. As we move toward the middle to second half of December the effects of the strat background discussed earlier and the progression of the pattern will favor the presence of high latitude blocking as well as a more +PNA out west. I THINK...right now..and think is a key word...that the potential exists for another memorable 30 day period from late December through January including an impressive blocking event. While i don't think the cold will be as impressive as last winter, I think the potential for much more dynamic systems will exist. While I think it is important to stop short of comparing the period to the 2010-2011 30 day stretch...the general progression could be similar, with the intensity depending on many factors which it's far too early to be confident in yet. If there is a sense of excitement in here...I don't blame you guys. I think it's warranted. But I also think it's prudent to wait a few more weeks. The siberian snow cover charts, AO forecast, stratospheric warming stuff...it's all in good shape right now. But that only means the hype meter will start going through the roof soon. Do yourself a favor and let it play out over the next few weeks. It's still far too early, if you ask me, to forecast anything memorable or very snowy. But it is not too early to realize we're in a comfortable/good spot right now. Lets see if things stay on track over the next 14 days or so. Great post, insightful but not too over the top or complicated. I prefer the boom or bust type winters so hopefully we keep trending in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Agree , I think the 500 MB is a better tool . . The JMA monthlies were great last year . Yeah, it's all about the 500 mb pattern for determining snowfall here. We just don't need it as cold for a big snowfall season like we experienced in the past. Our best snowfall seasons of 40" or greater in NYC since 2002 have been milder than the 40" or greater snowfall years from 57-58 to 77-78. Less cold for recent 40" snowfall seasons in NYC More cold older 40" snowfall seasons NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 John always posting informative and well though out analysis. THIS is why he one of the best in here IMO. Also to the snowcover record, is that a good thing? Yes but its not going to be our savior. This winter looks like it may take a bit to get going but when it does this has more BIG potential over last year when the PV was like so overwhelming. Wont see many years where march we would have to worry about suppression like we did this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 can someone clarify something? were those two storms that kept shifting south last year run by run due to the cold air mass locked in over us? edit: may have only been one storm in march, can't recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Also, most seasonal forecast model 2m temperature forecasts are useless. Agree, but that's all they give us on the JAMSTEC. (Well, there's precip and SSTs and such... but I mean, there are no upper level maps.) Hands are tied with what to look at there. But the trends should fall in line. So, would've been nice to see something there. But, whatever... mostly just posted for casual interest. My forecast for winter is quite cold and I've been on that train since about the same time JB was (uh oh, death knell, lol). This model's 2m temp anomaly forecast certainly isn't going to alter my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 can someone clarify something? were those two storms that kept shifting south last year run by run due to the cold air mass locked in over us? edit: may have only been one storm in march, can't recall Blocks give eth and take eth away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Without giving away your forecast Do you like what you are seeing on the Atlantic side ? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 John always posting informative and well though out analysis. THIS is why he one of the best in here IMO. Also to the snowcover record, is that a good thing? Yes but its not going to be our savior. This winter looks like it may take a bit to get going but when it does this has more BIG potential over last year when the PV was like so overwhelming. Wont see many years where march we would have to worry about suppression like we did this year All that snow cover up north is a bigger deal then you think. It increases the odds of a dominate -AO/-NAO pattern setup. When you have those two teleconnections on our side, they can trump other teleconnections that may not cooperate most of the time. Like John said, its still a bit early to get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 It gets thrown around a lot every year. But whatever, that will never stop. In all seriousness, without giving too much of our winter forecast away, I think the strat background state is one of the better I've seen going in. The AO looks likely to remain negative throughout much of the winter and that can't be understated. The presence of blocking within the forecast pattern will bring us to a powderkeg-potential at any time. There are a few things which could change the game including the Pacific /PDO state as well as what exactly happens with the El Nino. A few on here have gone into great detail on Modoki El Nino's and how they benefit us. If you have the time I suggest doing some research on it. The SSTAs are almost ridiculously perfect in the Atlantic right now when you consider the pre-loading pattern for a -NAO winter which followed. A lot of this can be blown out of proportion but it really is an ideal situation right now in many aspects. Obviously there are still a few weeks before we can really start talking about details. But I have been asked by a few people what my thoughts are and these are them. I think there's the potential for us to start off with a mild November and moving forward into DEcember things could be quiet. As the pattern transitions I think the storm formation pattern will lean towards SWFE's for the first week or two of that month. As we move toward the middle to second half of December the effects of the strat background discussed earlier and the progression of the pattern will favor the presence of high latitude blocking as well as a more +PNA out west. I THINK...right now..and think is a key word...that the potential exists for another memorable 30 day period from late December through January including an impressive blocking event. While i don't think the cold will be as impressive as last winter, I think the potential for much more dynamic systems will exist. While I think it is important to stop short of comparing the period to the 2010-2011 30 day stretch...the general progression could be similar, with the intensity depending on many factors which it's far too early to be confident in yet. If there is a sense of excitement in here...I don't blame you guys. I think it's warranted. But I also think it's prudent to wait a few more weeks. The siberian snow cover charts, AO forecast, stratospheric warming stuff...it's all in good shape right now. But that only means the hype meter will start going through the roof soon. Do yourself a favor and let it play out over the next few weeks. It's still far too early, if you ask me, to forecast anything memorable or very snowy. But it is not too early to realize we're in a comfortable/good spot right now. Lets see if things stay on track over the next 14 days or so. For the record: One of the best write-ups I've read on this board. I don't 100%, to the letter agree with every last word of it. But without getting into too much detail (given that I work in a competitive environment, I can't reveal my seasonal forecast methodologies TOO much), there were a couple of points made in here that I think a lot of folks - mets included - completely miss the boat on. Earthlight nails those points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 can someone clarify something? were those two storms that kept shifting south last year run by run due to the cold air mass locked in over us? edit: may have only been one storm in march, can't recall From late Feb to March this year, we had a large, intense polar vortex over Canada and very active north Pacific pattern. We had either suppression or phasing too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Blocks give eth and take eth away From late Feb to March this year, we had a large, intense polar vortex over Canada and very active north Pacific pattern. We had either suppression or phasing too early. Ah I see, thank you both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 all seven el nino's that came at least three years after the last one had more snow than the previous year...I doubt that steak will continue this year unless we get over 57.4"...no big deal now days right...It was cold last year and it will be hard to match...I'll take half the amount of snow and average temperatures...I'm not greedy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 For the record: One of the best write-ups I've read on this board. I don't 100%, to the letter agree with every last word of it. But without getting into too much detail (given that I work in a competitive environment, I can't reveal my seasonal forecast methodologies TOO much), there were a couple of points made in here that I think a lot of folks - mets included - completely miss the boat on. Earthlight nails those points. Hence why is one of if not the most respected poster in the NYC subforum. When he talks we ALL listen. Whats good about his writeups as well is that they arent too scientific where the true amatuers dont understand it, and in a field that is built on scientific terms etc. that is a skill in its own IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 It gets thrown around a lot every year. But whatever, that will never stop. In all seriousness, without giving too much of our winter forecast away, I think the strat background state is one of the better I've seen going in. The AO looks likely to remain negative throughout much of the winter and that can't be understated. The presence of blocking within the forecast pattern will bring us to a powderkeg-potential at any time. There are a few things which could change the game including the Pacific /PDO state as well as what exactly happens with the El Nino. A few on here have gone into great detail on Modoki El Nino's and how they benefit us. If you have the time I suggest doing some research on it. The SSTAs are almost ridiculously perfect in the Atlantic right now when you consider the pre-loading pattern for a -NAO winter which followed. A lot of this can be blown out of proportion but it really is an ideal situation right now in many aspects. Obviously there are still a few weeks before we can really start talking about details. But I have been asked by a few people what my thoughts are and these are them. I think there's the potential for us to start off with a mild November and moving forward into DEcember things could be quiet. As the pattern transitions I think the storm formation pattern will lean towards SWFE's for the first week or two of that month. As we move toward the middle to second half of December the effects of the strat background discussed earlier and the progression of the pattern will favor the presence of high latitude blocking as well as a more +PNA out west. I THINK...right now..and think is a key word...that the potential exists for another memorable 30 day period from late December through January including an impressive blocking event. While i don't think the cold will be as impressive as last winter, I think the potential for much more dynamic systems will exist. While I think it is important to stop short of comparing the period to the 2010-2011 30 day stretch...the general progression could be similar, with the intensity depending on many factors which it's far too early to be confident in yet. If there is a sense of excitement in here...I don't blame you guys. I think it's warranted. But I also think it's prudent to wait a few more weeks. The siberian snow cover charts, AO forecast, stratospheric warming stuff...it's all in good shape right now. But that only means the hype meter will start going through the roof soon. Do yourself a favor and let it play out over the next few weeks. It's still far too early, if you ask me, to forecast anything memorable or very snowy. But it is not too early to realize we're in a comfortable/good spot right now. Lets see if things stay on track over the next 14 days or so. [/quote Excellent write up and agree there are many factors in the pattern that are extremely favorable so far. One concern I have is the GOA low which has been persistent the last week. The SSTs have cooled dramatically and the PDO drop has confirmed that. Is that a concern to you despite the massive buildup of snow cover in Siberia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 As if john's head wasnt big enough from when that random chick hit on him at the beach for being a weather nerd.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 As if john's head wasnt big enough from when that random chick hit on him at the beach for being a weather nerd.... Its Ryan he has to watch out for , I saw drool on his last post . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I THINK...right now..and think is a key word...that the potential exists for another memorable 30 day period from late December through January including an impressive blocking event. While i don't think the cold will be as impressive as last winter, I think the potential for much more dynamic systems will exist. While I think it is important to stop short of comparing the period to the 2010-2011 30 day stretch...the general progression could be similar, with the intensity depending on many factors which it's far too early to be confident in yet. To be honest, I didn't think last winter was that impressively cold for our area when you total the entire DJF period. It was undoubtedly much colder than normal, departures generally -1 to -2, but nowhere near as impressive as the snowfall. For NJ, 2013-14 DJF ranked 34th coldest out of 120 winters. So slightly less than 1/3 of all winters were colder than last year. Imagine if the mean trough were centered over the east coast -- we would've had brutal temperatures. Much of the M/W had its coldest winter since 1976 or coldest on record. We were literally on the periphery of those anomalous temperatures departures -- really just getting a taste of its severity from time to time. Basically what I'm saying is that one could probably argue the following: the probability of seeing a colder winter than last year locally is higher than the probability of seeing a snowier winter than last year. Many of our big hitting winters featured a colder than normal Dec, Jan, and Feb. Last winter's quite mild December skewed the 3 month average even though J/F were extremely impressive. But I agree with most of your points. There are a couple concerns that could tilt us away from a good winter, which is why I think waiting another 3 weeks is a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 To be honest, I didn't think last winter was that impressively cold for our area when you total the entire DJF period. It was undoubtedly much colder than normal, departures generally -1 to -2, but nowhere near as impressive as the snowfall. For NJ, 2013-14 DJF ranked 34th coldest out of 120 winters. So slightly less than 1/3 of all winters were colder than last year. Imagine if the mean trough were centered over the east coast -- we would've had brutal temperatures. Much of the M/W had its coldest winter since 1976 or coldest on record. We were literally on the periphery of those anomalous temperatures departures -- really just getting a taste of its severity from time to time. Basically what I'm saying is that one could probably argue the following: the probability of seeing a colder winter than last year locally is higher than the probability of seeing a snowier winter than last year. Many of our big hitting winters featured a colder than normal Dec, Jan, and Feb. Last winter's quite mild December skewed the 3 month average even though J/F were extremely impressive. But I agree with most of your points. There are a couple concerns that could tilt us away from a good winter, which is why I think waiting another 3 weeks is a good idea. Last Dec 21 - was 70 Put a full degree on Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 To be honest, I didn't think last winter was that impressively cold for our area when you total the entire DJF period. It was undoubtedly much colder than normal, departures generally -1 to -2, but nowhere near as impressive as the snowfall. For NJ, 2013-14 DJF ranked 34th coldest out of 120 winters. So slightly less than 1/3 of all winters were colder than last year. Imagine if the mean trough were centered over the east coast -- we would've had brutal temperatures. Much of the M/W had its coldest winter since 1976 or coldest on record. We were literally on the periphery of those anomalous temperatures departures -- really just getting a taste of its severity from time to time. Basically what I'm saying is that one could probably argue the following: the probability of seeing a colder winter than last year locally is higher than the probability of seeing a snowier winter than last year. Many of our big hitting winters featured a colder than normal Dec, Jan, and Feb. Last winter's quite mild December skewed the 3 month average even though J/F were extremely impressive. But I agree with most of your points. There are a couple concerns that could tilt us away from a good winter, which is why I think waiting another 3 weeks is a good idea. I don't know..Jan and Feb were both -4.5 or greater. That's pretty damn cold in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 To be honest, I didn't think last winter was that impressively cold for our area when you total the entire DJF period. It was undoubtedly much colder than normal, departures generally -1 to -2, but nowhere near as impressive as the snowfall. For NJ, 2013-14 DJF ranked 34th coldest out of 120 winters. So slightly less than 1/3 of all winters were colder than last year. Imagine if the mean trough were centered over the east coast -- we would've had brutal temperatures. Much of the M/W had its coldest winter since 1976 or coldest on record. We were literally on the periphery of those anomalous temperatures departures -- really just getting a taste of its severity from time to time. Basically what I'm saying is that one could probably argue the following: the probability of seeing a colder winter than last year locally is higher than the probability of seeing a snowier winter than last year. Many of our big hitting winters featured a colder than normal Dec, Jan, and Feb. Last winter's quite mild December skewed the 3 month average even though J/F were extremely impressive. But I agree with most of your points. There are a couple concerns that could tilt us away from a good winter, which is why I think waiting another 3 weeks is a good idea. Good point and yes December skewed the means but we have to include it in the winter averages. I also find it difficult to believe we'll see a snowier instead of a colder winter than last season. I mean we would have to get upwards of or close to 60" this winter to surpass last year's snows but at the same time I find it hard to believe it'll be colder than last winter as well. It is an El Nino after all even if weak so honestly we're more likely to see both less snowfall and warmer temperatures than last winter if you take all of that into account but even that could still easily mean below normal temperatures and above average snowfall regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I don't know..Jan and Feb were both -4.5 or greater. That's pretty damn cold in my book Jan and Feb were very impressive, no doubt. My only point is that we've seen numerous winters in which the DJF average was more impressive. Here, I recorded a +2.1 December, -3.0 Jan, and -3.5 Feb, for the DJF period at -1.5 NYC was -4.0 for Jan, -3.7 Feb, and +1.0 December. -2.2 DJF. Very cold winter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 December 2013 wasn't that cold, because the AO was more positive that month. Nothing to suppress the SE ridge. We had -AO in Jan and February 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Here's what I meant by being located on the periphery of the cold. While the winter was very impressive in comparison to most of our winters since 1985 or so, when you extend it back to 1950, we've seen much colder seasons. Imagine if the mean trough was centered over the Northeast last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Here's what I meant by being located on the periphery of the cold. While the winter was very impressive in comparison to most of our winters since 1985 or so, when you extend it back to 1950, we've seen much colder seasons. Imagine if the mean trough was centered over the Northeast last winter. Yes Chicago`s all time coldest http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=101458&source=0. Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I'd like to see this look for one week... ave temp...month/day/year...12.2......1/6-12/196812.7......2/12-18/197913.9......1/15-21/199415.5......1/20-26/196115.9......1/12-18/197716.1......1/13-19/195716.7......2/13-19/195817.0......1/18-24/2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The average monthly temperature at Central Park for 18 the winter months(DJF) with above normal snowfall since the 02-03 winter is 33.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The average monthly temperature at Central Park for 18 the winter months(DJF) with above normal snowfall since the 02-03 winter is 33.3. since 1947-48... 1947-48...30.0 1948-49...38.5 1955-56...32.7 1957-58...33.3 1959-60...36.2 1960-61...31.7 1963-64...33.3 1966-67...34.1 1968-69...32.9 1977-78...30.3 1993-94...31.2 1995-96...32.3 2000-01...33.5 2002-03...31.2 2003-04...32.4 2004-05...35.4 2005-06...37.3 2009-10...33.8 2010-11...32.7 2013-14...32.9 average...33.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Its Ryan he has to watch out for , I saw drool on his last post . Good afternoon paul great to see you brought your A-game to the board today <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Good afternoon paul great to see you brought your A-game to the board today <3 lol ok Sorry ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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