MJO812 Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 That video is amazing. There were a lot of cars stuck in my area because of the snow. The only store that was open in my area was CVS ( yes, I had to work ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 The snow cover compared to last year is amazing. It is growing at a great rate. That's why I don't get why people are so worried about this upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 The snow cover compared to last year is amazing. It is growing at a great rate. That's why I don't get why people are so worried about this upcoming winter. Just figured I'd add a visual, 10/17/14 on top, 10/17/13 on bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 The snow cover compared to last year is amazing. It is growing at a great rate. That's why I don't get why people are so worried about this upcoming winter. Below compliments of Ginxy in New England . There is more snow this October below 60 than last year . The only fly in the ointment will be can we tap that source region ? We will need to build HP through Alaska that will allow the cold air to work its way S then E . The finale would be to have a NEG NAO develop so we can block the cold from escaping east .(so it sits and spins ) . However this should build the COLD air over the top . Now we need to look for the pattern to develop that brings it and blocks it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Below compliments of Ginxy in New England . There is more snow this October below 60 than last year . The only fly in the ointment will be can we tap that source region ? We will need to build HP through Alaska that will allow the cold air to work its way S then E . The finale would be to have a NEG NAO develop so we can block the cold from escaping east .(so it sits and spins ) . However this should build the COLD air over the top . Now we need to look for the pattern to develop that brings it and blocks it . Totally agree on all accounts here. We can have historic eurasia/alaska,canada snow cover but with no source to lock in the air mass it is mute IMO. i mean its pretty damn promising looking at that chart but it is a small puzzle piece in the big picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Totally agree on all accounts here. We can have historic eurasia/alaska,canada snow cover but with no source to lock in the air mass it is mute IMO. i mean its pretty damn promising looking at that chart but it is a small puzzle piece in the big picture It's also moot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 It's also moot I AM SORRY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 All Time Record. North America Snow Cover hits 45 year high http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/all-time-record-north-america-snow-cover-hits-45-year-high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Big Arctic Highs showing up in Canada, just like last year. Usually GFS is in error with big surface highs, but was actually excellent on the pattern last Winter. We'll see if this is the beginning of a pattern with big 1045 mb + highs once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The 2002-2003 winter analog is getting thrown around alot.That was a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Posted in New England forum, but since I'm in NYC metro, sharing here too... October JAMSTEC run in: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Sfc temps a little dissapointing (a touch cooler, nationally, than the Sept run, but not in the Northeast... not awful, but a BIT warmer than normal DJF). Of course, several caveats to that. Precip on the edge of aboves, so at SLIGHTLY above normal temps, could still get above normal snowfall with above normal precip. Also, model sfc temps tend to be pretty sketchy (unfortunately, no upper level plots for the JAMSTEC). Plus, most models are on the warm side for Dec; we don't see that temporal resolution on the JAMSTEC, but if it's got the same idea, Jan-Feb are probably near normal. So, not terrible, but not great. Most models - even those that still aren't particularly great - improved from their Sept to Oct runs. The JAMSTEC just held serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 This is where we were last OCT . I would take that look while the SSTs don't look bad , last years warmest waters were further West , so I am curious to see how the EPO responds . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 the rain all day long put a damper on that storm...it melted at least half of what fell during the morning...Shades of February 1972...The Feb. 2nd storm was the best one last winter... snow cover imby the morning of Feb. 14th...lower layer of snow on the table is from the post super bowl snowfall...storms that turn to rain suck in my opinion...this one had a little snow on the back side...It's times like that I wish I lived in the Poconos... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Posted in New England forum, but since I'm in NYC metro, sharing here too... October JAMSTEC run in: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Sfc temps a little dissapointing (a touch cooler, nationally, than the Sept run, but not in the Northeast... not awful, but a BIT warmer than normal DJF). Of course, several caveats to that. Precip on the edge of aboves, so at SLIGHTLY above normal temps, could still get above normal snowfall with above normal precip. Also, model sfc temps tend to be pretty sketchy (unfortunately, no upper level plots for the JAMSTEC). Plus, most models are on the warm side for Dec; we don't see that temporal resolution on the JAMSTEC, but if it's got the same idea, Jan-Feb are probably near normal. So, not terrible, but not great. Most models - even those that still aren't particularly great - improved from their Sept to Oct runs. The JAMSTEC just held serve. IMO we arent really going to have a better idea as what to expect for december until first week of november at the earliest. Like stated they're are many caveats to the winter forecast and some we may not see till inside 10 days that may dictate the longer range scheme of things. meteorologists have it tough during this season and i applaud anyone balsy enough to publish a winter forecast and respect it no matter what it shows as its equivelant to putting your reputation on a chopping block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 This is where we were last OCT . I would take that look while the SSTs don't look bad , last years warmest waters were further West , so I am curious to see how the EPO responds . Yeah, I wasn't saying it was a good model... lol! (Like JB's lovefest with it.) Just the final seasonal model to come out for October. So... just sharing for those interested who hadn't seen it yet. Not saying it's right. One of a bucketful of caveats to go along with this or any seasonal model. Just would have be nice to see some trending. But mostly just sharing for casual interest as we all sit here twiddling our thumbs waiting for the cold season to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Yeah, I wasn't saying it was a good model... lol! (Like JB's lovefest with it.) Just the final seasonal model to come out for October. So... just sharing for those interested who hadn't seen it yet. Not saying it's right. One of a bucketful of caveats to go along with this or any seasonal model. Just would have be nice to see some trending. But mostly just sharing for casual interest as we all sit here twiddling our thumbs waiting for the cold season to come. Thanks . It was great to compare the surfaces from last yr to ths year. I wish I could see it's 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The 2002-2003 winter analog is getting thrown around alot.That was a great winter. It gets thrown around a lot every year. But whatever, that will never stop. In all seriousness, without giving too much of our winter forecast away, I think the strat background state is one of the better I've seen going in. The AO looks likely to remain negative throughout much of the winter and that can't be understated. The presence of blocking within the forecast pattern will bring us to a powderkeg-potential at any time. There are a few things which could change the game including the Pacific /PDO state as well as what exactly happens with the El Nino. A few on here have gone into great detail on Modoki El Nino's and how they benefit us. If you have the time I suggest doing some research on it. The SSTAs are almost ridiculously perfect in the Atlantic right now when you consider the pre-loading pattern for a -NAO winter which followed. A lot of this can be blown out of proportion but it really is an ideal situation right now in many aspects. Obviously there are still a few weeks before we can really start talking about details. But I have been asked by a few people what my thoughts are and these are them. I think there's the potential for us to start off with a mild November and moving forward into DEcember things could be quiet. As the pattern transitions I think the storm formation pattern will lean towards SWFE's for the first week or two of that month. As we move toward the middle to second half of December the effects of the strat background discussed earlier and the progression of the pattern will favor the presence of high latitude blocking as well as a more +PNA out west. I THINK...right now..and think is a key word...that the potential exists for another memorable 30 day period from late December through January including an impressive blocking event. While i don't think the cold will be as impressive as last winter, I think the potential for much more dynamic systems will exist. While I think it is important to stop short of comparing the period to the 2010-2011 30 day stretch...the general progression could be similar, with the intensity depending on many factors which it's far too early to be confident in yet. If there is a sense of excitement in here...I don't blame you guys. I think it's warranted. But I also think it's prudent to wait a few more weeks. The siberian snow cover charts, AO forecast, stratospheric warming stuff...it's all in good shape right now. But that only means the hype meter will start going through the roof soon. Do yourself a favor and let it play out over the next few weeks. It's still far too early, if you ask me, to forecast anything memorable or very snowy. But it is not too early to realize we're in a comfortable/good spot right now. Lets see if things stay on track over the next 14 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Also, most seasonal forecast model 2m temperature forecasts are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Also, most seasonal forecast model 2m temperature forecasts are useless. Agree , I think the 500 MB is a better tool . . The JMA monthlies were great last year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Agree , I think the 500 MB is a better tool . . The JMA monthlies were great last year . It's simple really...would you rather look at a 2m temperature projection at this range, or the overall pattern's H5 anomaly? One makes sense, one doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Below compliments of Ginxy in New England . There is more snow this October below 60 than last year . The only fly in the ointment will be can we tap that source region ? We will need to build HP through Alaska that will allow the cold air to work its way S then E . The finale would be to have a NEG NAO develop so we can block the cold from escaping east .(so it sits and spins ) . However this should build the COLD air over the top . Now we need to look for the pattern to develop that brings it and blocks it . You just wait until this current ridge position providing the ++ anomalies of siberian snow starts to get on the move. The AO/Pacific pattern will almost certainly transport this cold air southward toward Canada and the Northern 1/4 of the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 The snow cover compared to last year is amazing. It is growing at a great rate. That's why I don't get why people are so worried about this upcoming winter. People are not worried, they are hesitating and maybe not ripping their clothes off in celebration just yet....which is smart because there is a lot of time still for us to monitor the overall pattern development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 You just wait until this current ridge position providing the ++ anomalies of siberian snow starts to get on the move. The AO/Pacific pattern will almost certainly transport this cold air southward toward Canada and the Northern 1/4 of the CONUS. I don`t doubt the cold over the top will be impressive and i guess we may see the response in the arctic sea ice. I looked at the SST s S of the Aleutians and the the warm center is further east and even warmer than last winter . Can the EPO stay as NEG as last year , and can we slide that PAC ridge position a little further East to shift the core of the cold from the lakes into the NE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I don`t doubt the cold over the top will be impressive and i guess we may see the response in the arctic sea ice. I looked at the SST s S of the Aleutians and the the warm center is further east and even warmer than last winter . Can the EPO stay as NEG as last year , and can we slide that PAC ridge position a little further East to shift the core of the cold from the lakes into the NE . I don't think the cold will be as impressive as last year for multiple reasons. But that is not a bad thing. We will have the potential for huge storms instead of having the PV sitting on top of us with light/moderate events all winter. Boom or bust, but boom potential higher than normal given almost everything around the pattern.....as it stands now. Still time to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I don't think the cold will be as impressive as last year for multiple reasons. But that is not a bad thing. We will have the potential for huge storms instead of having the PV sitting on top of us with light/moderate events all winter. Boom or bust, but boom potential higher than normal given almost everything around the pattern.....as it stands now. Still time to go. Without giving away your forecast Do you like what you are seeing on the Atlantic side ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 In all seriousness, without giving too much of our winter forecast away, I think the strat background state is one of the better I've seen going in. The AO looks likely to remain negative throughout much of the winter and that can't be understated. The presence of blocking within the forecast pattern will bring us to a powderkeg-potential at any time. There are a few things which could change the game including the Pacific /PDO state as well as what exactly happens with the El Nino. A few on here have gone into great detail on Modoki El Nino's and how they benefit us. If you have the time I suggest doing some research on it. The SSTAs are almost ridiculously perfect in the Atlantic right now when you consider the pre-loading pattern for a -NAO winter which followed. A lot of this can be blown out of proportion but it really is an ideal situation right now in many aspects. Obviously there are still a few weeks before we can really start talking about details. But I have been asked by a few people what my thoughts are and these are them. I think there's the potential for us to start off with a mild November and moving forward into DEcember things could be quiet. As the pattern transitions I think the storm formation pattern will lean towards SWFE's for the first week or two of that month. As we move toward the middle to second half of December the effects of the strat background discussed earlier and the progression of the pattern will favor the presence of high latitude blocking as well as a more +PNA out west. I THINK...right now..and think is a key word...that the potential exists for another memorable 30 day period from late December through January including an impressive blocking event. While i don't think the cold will be as impressive as last winter, I think the potential for much more dynamic systems will exist. While I think it is important to stop short of comparing the period to the 2010-2011 30 day stretch...the general progression could be similar, with the intensity depending on many factors which it's far too early to be confident in yet. If there is a sense of excitement in here...I don't blame you guys. I think it's warranted. But I also think it's prudent to wait a few more weeks. The siberian snow cover charts, AO forecast, stratospheric warming stuff...it's all in good shape right now. But that only means the hype meter will start going through the roof soon. Do yourself a favor and let it play out over the next few weeks. It's still far too early, if you ask me, to forecast anything memorable or very snowy. But it is not too early to realize we're in a comfortable/good spot right now. Lets see if things stay on track over the next 14 days or so. Euro weeklies show it being mild through the 1st half of November. That's fine by me. Let it be mild until December. I can't wait to see your winter outlook. Should be really fun to look at. I don't think the cold will be as impressive as last year for multiple reasons. But that is not a bad thing. We will have the potential for huge storms instead of having the PV sitting on top of us with light/moderate events all winter. Boom or bust, but boom potential higher than normal given almost everything around the pattern.....as it stands now. Still time to go. Good because it sucks getting cirrus clouds while the mid-atlantic is receiving a ton of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 DT was alluding to the same thing...not as cold as last year and fewer snow events, but greater potential for larger events. That would seem to be more in line with 2009-10...not saying we'll have 4 HECS' but 1 or 2 would be nice. I don't need highs in the teens and 15 small to moderate snow events if we can get one or two big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Euro weeklies show it being mild through the 1st half of November. That's fine by me. Let it be mild until December. I can't wait to see your winter outlook. Should be really fun to look at. Good because it sucks getting cirrus clouds while the mid-atlantic is receiving a ton of snow. That could still happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 That could still happen I'm saying that I don't want the cold that we had last winter. Just give me 20's and 30's and I will take my chance with a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Just one time I want epic over running snows followed by a slow moving coastal hugger. That would make up for missing PDII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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