ag3 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I used to think this too. But what exactly do we come here for? Boring, well written analysis of what a computer generated model shows? Not exactly. In the winter (and sometimes rarely other seasons)...the model guidance output can be very exciting. And, in an odd way, the play by play is one of the most exciting parts of it. It just has to be executed correctly. Nowadays, too many people have access to minute-by-minute model data and they don't know how to interpret it. Well understood model data play-by-play, I would argue, can be some of the most exciting stuff on this forum. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I wasn't using this site in 2010 and I'm curious as to what the range of emotions on this forum were while tracking the post-Christmas blizzard that year It was epic here when the models bought back the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I wasn't using this site in 2010 and I'm curious as to what the range of emotions on this forum were while tracking the post-Christmas blizzard that year That was pretty crazy here. The site was still fairly new and it was really the first major storm since the changeover from Eastern. I'll never forget seeing that 12z GFS run come through and then only to have HPC dismiss it due to initialization errors. If I remember correctly, the 12z ECMWF didn't fully catch on that run and it wasn't until the 00z runs that confidence really increased. It's all blurry now. But...this is indeed a perfect example for me where the tracking was more exciting. The 14" that fell IMBY was memorable but not noteworthy. The winds were a different story, that and the roller coaster tracking. For a lot of posters here that storm is number one of all time. To me it didn't even compare to 96' or 03'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 If you want to know the area that has really been amazingly anomalously snowy since 2000-01...I'd put it in this box...draw a line from Upton to Waterbury, CT...draw a second line from about Plainview, Long Island (near Nassau / Suffolk border) up to Danbury, Ct....then draw lines connecting Waterbury to Danbury and another line connecting Upton to Plainview...inside that square...amazingly anomalously snowy over the past 14 winters. I'd say most of the area in that box has seen at least 133% compared to the average...probably locally approaching 150%...and that is over 14 years...and includes several terrible winters factored into the mix ('02, '06, '07, '08, & '12). Agreed, I lived in WaterTOWN most of that time and we were definitely just outside that square lol. I am just looking through some climate data spreadsheets with regards to snowfall climo. I didn't realize this but BDR just had their snowiest (2014, 32.1") and 2nd snowiest Februaries on record (2013, 30.4") in back-to-back winters. That's pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 That was pretty crazy here. The site was still fairly new and it was really the first major storm since the changeover from Eastern. I'll never forget seeing that 12z GFS run come through and then only to have HPC dismiss it due to initialization errors. If I remember correctly, the 12z ECMWF didn't fully catch on that run and it wasn't until the 00z runs that confidence really increased. It's all blurry now. But...this is indeed a perfect example for me where the tracking was more exciting. The 14" that fell IMBY was memorable but not noteworthy. The winds were a different story, that and the roller coaster tracking. For a lot of posters here that storm is number one of all time. To me it didn't even compare to 96' or 03'. Agreed 96' and 03' were the big ones for me too. 2010 i "only" got 18" when mt. Earthlight was dumped on with 33". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 That was pretty crazy here. The site was still fairly new and it was really the first major storm since the changeover from Eastern. I'll never forget seeing that 12z GFS run come through and then only to have HPC dismiss it due to initialization errors. If I remember correctly, the 12z ECMWF didn't fully catch on that run and it wasn't until the 00z runs that confidence really increased. It's all blurry now. But...this is indeed a perfect example for me where the tracking was more exciting. The 14" that fell IMBY was memorable but not noteworthy. The winds were a different story, that and the roller coaster tracking. For a lot of posters here that storm is number one of all time. To me it didn't even compare to 96' or 03'. Must have been such a thrill. Here's to hoping we have more exciting tracking in the near future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Must have been such a thrill. Here's to hoping we have more exciting tracking in the near future We had just missed out on a smaller coastal a few days before and I remember Earthlight and others mentioning that the pattern was a "powder keg". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Must have been such a thrill. Here's to hoping we have more exciting tracking in the near future Those old threads are still available.. Just have to do a quuck search Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Those old threads are still available.. Just have to do a quuck searchThanks for that, and what a memorable winter that turned out to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 It was the 18z GFS first that brought 2010 north again, after all the 12z runs showed complete miss. The rest of NCEP suite followed the trend and morning afterwards. The foreign models didn't start catching on till the Friday night. 12z runs the next day was consensus on big hit for us. The pattern at the time, IMO, always supported it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Those old threads are still available.. Just have to do a quuck searchThanks for that, and what a memorable winter that turned out to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Thanks for that, and what a memorable winter that turned out to be Unless you lived in DC...we definitely got revenge for the previous winter, particularly early February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I've tracked and witnessed plenty of big snowstorms in my 35 years of following the weather. The ultimate thrill we haven't seen yet would be a slow moving crippling blizzard dumping 3 feet plus from DC to Boston. With all these crazy weather anomalies worldwide in recent years, only a matter of time folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I've tracked and witnessed plenty of big snowstorms in my 35 years of following the weather. The ultimate thrill we haven't seen yet would be a slow moving crippling blizzard dumping 3 feet plus from DC to Boston. With all these crazy weather anomalies worldwide in recent years, only a matter of time folks. Do you want everyone on here to die of a heart attack from such a scenario? JK. It is probably the ultimate snow event we could ever witness especially if we top those amounts with blizzard conditions, extremely cold temperatures, and near zero visibility. Still, you'd be talking about an event even greater than 96 so I don't even know if such a scenario is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I've tracked and witnessed plenty of big snowstorms in my 35 years of following the weather. The ultimate thrill we haven't seen yet would be a slow moving crippling blizzard dumping 3 feet plus from DC to Boston. With all these crazy weather anomalies worldwide in recent years, only a matter of time folks. I agree with that. A slow moving Miller A caused by substantial -NAO/-AO with a hefty +PNA spike, 50/50 LP system and 1040 HP anchored in SE canada may help with that. Pretty much a more powerful 96' which i would love since i remember 96' very vaguely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I've tracked and witnessed plenty of big snowstorms in my 35 years of following the weather. The ultimate thrill we haven't seen yet would be a slow moving crippling blizzard dumping 3 feet plus from DC to Boston. With all these crazy weather anomalies worldwide in recent years, only a matter of time folks. I said the same thing last year...especially with events like Sandy and the October snowstorm we should be seeing more 'extreme' events and a widespread 78 type storm that stalls off the coast and blasts everybody has to happen eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Do you want everyone on here to die of a heart attack from such a scenario? JK. It is probably the ultimate snow event we could ever witness especially if we top those amounts with blizzard conditions, extremely cold temperatures, and near zero visibility. Still, you'd be talking about an event even greater than 96 so I don't even know if such a scenario is possible. Of course it is, 93' happened (not referring to the track but more the strength) and that dropped to sub 960mb pressure and dumped over four feet of snow in W. VA. It could happen but the scenario is very slim but factor in how we have been getting these frequent KU storms, it is fairly possible this could happen maybe as soon as this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 It was the 18z GFS first that brought 2010 north again, after all the 12z runs showed complete miss. The rest of NCEP suite followed the trend and morning afterwards. The foreign models didn't start catching on till the Friday night. 12z runs the next day was consensus on big hit for us. The pattern at the time, IMO, always supported it. I don't remember it this way. It was the 12z run the day of Christmas eve that brought the storm north. The 00z runs the night before showed nothing. I remember, clearly, having some obscene amount of text messages on my phone that morning. I had stayed up for the 06z runs and talked at length with baroclinic_instability about how it was so close to being a monster. But yeah, it was the 12z/24 GFS that had a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Surely this isn't what we had in mind. This looks like a less extreme version of 2009-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 It was the 18z GFS first that brought 2010 north again, after all the 12z runs showed complete miss. The rest of NCEP suite followed the trend and morning afterwards. The foreign models didn't start catching on till the Friday night. 12z runs the next day was consensus on big hit for us. The pattern at the time, IMO, always supported it. Page 2 of this thread shows when the GFS was the first to get back on board the morning of Christmas eve http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/5724-nycphl-dec-26-27-potential-part-5/page-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Page 2 of this thread shows when the GFS was the first to get back on board the morning of Christmas eve http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/5724-nycphl-dec-26-27-potential-part-5/page-2 It starting coming back north before that. Not a big hit verbatim until 12z. Christmas eve.I would post thread. But it's not from this board. Here's the link for thread made for the 18z GFS on Dec. 23: http://tristateweather.yuku.com/topic/25781/18z-GFS-Run-Is-In-And-Its-Game-On?page=2#.VEBtoBbi9jO The 0z GFS thread right after: http://tristateweather.yuku.com/topic/25790/0z24-GFS#.VEBz2Rbi9jN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Page 2 of this thread shows when the GFS was the first to get back on board the morning of Christmas eve http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/5724-nycphl-dec-26-27-potential-part-5/page-2 This post by Earthlight pretty much sums up that thread "it's a Christmas miracle " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 "If the upper-air pattern were just a bit closer to that of March 1888, this would be a repeat of March 1888" I lol'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I wasn't using this site in 2010 and I'm curious as to what the range of emotions on this forum were while tracking the post-Christmas blizzard that year Seriously nothing will ever beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 We had just missed out on a smaller coastal a few days before and I remember Earthlight and others mentioning that the pattern was a "powder keg". Up in southeast ma we saw a few smaller events before that big one. I think we got clipped by the one you are referencing. That was the beginning of the most epic snow stretch I have ever experienced. After the early December torch and rains, it was like we flipped a switch. A 6 week period it seemed like we were getting 2-3 events a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 This was the 0z/24 GFS, the night before Christmas eve for 2010. The north/west trend had already started on the GFS, at least: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 It was the 18z GFS first that brought 2010 north again, after all the 12z runs showed complete miss. The rest of NCEP suite followed the trend and morning afterwards. The foreign models didn't start catching on till the Friday night. 12z runs the next day was consensus on big hit for us. The pattern at the time, IMO, always supported it. I was really excited when I saw the 0z GFS on Christmas Eve morning. I had a feeling that the models were going to shift more west. I remember, clearly, having some obscene amount of text messages on my phone that morning. I had stayed up for the 06z runs and talked at length with baroclinic_instability about how it was so close to being a monster. You weren't the only one. I had a couple of phone calls that morning. This guy ( you know ) was screaming like a little girl when the models showed a huge hit. He then called me back saying that the storm was a bust when hpc discounted all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I don't remember it this way. It was the 12z run the day of Christmas eve that brought the storm north. The 00z runs the night before showed nothing. I remember, clearly, having some obscene amount of text messages on my phone that morning. I had stayed up for the 06z runs and talked at length with baroclinic_instability about how it was so close to being a monster. But yeah, it was the 12z/24 GFS that had a huge hit. Thanks John, that's the way I rememberd it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Seriously nothing will ever beat that. It was pretty epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Yea as far as pure turnaround to sheer excitment blizzard of 2010 was #1. Only that could beat that is a repeat of 96' or bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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