Guest Pamela Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 It is quite remarkable. Probably due to NJ's location adjacent to the ocean, right around 40N latitude, where the transition away from a generally sub-tropical climate occurs, plus the higher terrain in the NW corner of the state, and you're looking at a massive difference. Once into New England, the transition away from the sub-tropical climate is done, so the snowfall increases from coast to mountains generally aren't as dramatic, but I must say, MA is very impressive and comparable to NJ. Nantucket I believe averages in the low 20s, while the higher terrain of W MA is > 70". Most remarkable state for transition north to south is CT...Bridgeport averages in the low to mid 30's....go 30 miles up route 8 and you are in the 50's...go another 25 miles north and you are in the 70's in the 500 foot valleys and the 90's in the 1000'+ hilltops such as Norfolk. Litchfield County is an amazingly snowy place considering its latitude...Norfolk was once as snowy as Caribou ME before they had a few "bad" winters...they also once averaged 10 inches of snow in April...(1952-1973). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 It is quite remarkable. Probably due to NJ's location adjacent to the ocean, right around 40N latitude, where the transition away from a generally sub-tropical climate occurs, plus the higher terrain in the NW corner of the state, and you're looking at a massive difference. Once into New England, the transition away from the sub-tropical climate is done, so the snowfall increases from coast to mountains generally aren't as dramatic, but I must say, MA is very impressive and comparable to NJ. Nantucket I believe averages in the low 20s, while the higher terrain of W MA is > 70". I note the Nantucket comment...they are actually closer to 30"...depending where you look...they do pick up some snow the main land misses...and some ocean effect...to meet their budget...but being so far out to sea...the gradient does not impress me as much as the CT gradient or even the Rhode Island one...where Providence averages about 38 inches and 10 miles to the WNW North Foster averages in the mid 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Once into New England, the transition away from the sub-tropical climate is done, so the snowfall increases from coast to mountains generally aren't as dramatic, but I must say, MA is very impressive and comparable to NJ. Nantucket I believe averages in the low 20s, while the higher terrain of W MA is > 70". Being away from the water still means a lot at least up through coastal New Hampshire...once you get to Portland and up...Portland's average is about 78 inches...it starts to drop off just a bit. The difference in wintertime climate between Boston and Portland is pretty substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/13/fall-snow-bonanza-in-north-america-and-siberia-may-portend-brutal-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/13/fall-snow-bonanza-in-north-america-and-siberia-may-portend-brutal-winter/ Why don't you followup on the series of thoughts in previous posts instead of breaking the chain with a link to an article that is readily available elsewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Why don't you followup on the series of thoughts in previous posts instead of breaking the chain with a link to an article that is readily available elsewhere? His post is relevant to Winter 2014/15 so I don't see an issue with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 His post is relevant to Winter 2014/15 so I don't see an issue with it. You may be right...I'm just in an argumentative frame of mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Most remarkable state for transition north to south is CT...Bridgeport averages in the low to mid 30's....go 30 miles up route 8 and you are in the 50's...go another 25 miles north and you are in the 70's in the 500 foot valleys and the 90's in the 1000'+ hilltops such as Norfolk. Litchfield County is an amazingly snowy place considering its latitude...Norfolk was once as snowy as Caribou ME before they had a few "bad" winters...they also once averaged 10 inches of snow in April...(1952-1973). What is the elevation change from say Bridgeport and 30miles up route 8? Never really paid much attention to those averages which is pretty remarkable and more typical of regions like this thanks to lake effect and in the mountains ofcourse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 What is the elevation change from say Bridgeport and 30miles up route 8? Never really paid much attention to those averages which is pretty remarkable and more typical of regions like this thanks to lake effect and in the mountains ofcourse. Winsted is about 713'...but 7 miles WNW up Route 44...Norfolk is perched at 1337'. But 30 miles...I guess that would be north of Waterbury...maybe 350 to 450 feet...varies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Not sure how much accuracy it has from this lead time, but the JMA did an about-face and now depicts a rather obscene looking pattern for DJF. Mean pattern looks like the composite of La Nina years rather than El Nino. December: January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 I rotated the images so one doesn't have to bend their neck to see what is happening in N America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Winsted is about 713'...but 7 miles WNW up Route 44...Norfolk is perched at 1337'. But 30 miles...I guess that would be north of Waterbury...maybe 350 to 450 feet...varies. Waterbury itself actually has some high spots. The top of my street (probably the steepest street in the city) is about 700' while the bottom is around 400'. I am closer to the bottom unfortunately so I am at about 470'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Why did accuweather steal my winter 2014-15 forecast? I don't get it look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Why did accuweather steal my winter 2014-15 forecast? I don't get it look That's such a safe forecast by them. Basically mix means equal chances of rainy or snowy along the I-95 corridor (who woulda thunk it?) since you can't forecast a mix line months in advance. Icy in areas that usually get ice during nor'easters, of course. They basically took a track of a nor'easter that dumps snow on inland areas and based a winter forecast around it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 That's such a safe forecast by them. Basically mix means equal chances of rainy or snowy along the I-95 corridor (who woulda thunk it?) since you can't forecast a mix line months in advance. Icy in areas that usually get ice during nor'easters, of course. They basically took a track of a nor'easter that dumps snow on inland areas and based a winter forecast around it Yeah it basically looks like a weather channel 7 day forecast not a winter forecast. Snow in the mountains, mix at the coast? No way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Waterbury itself actually has some high spots. The top of my street (probably the steepest street in the city) is about 700' while the bottom is around 400'. I am closer to the bottom unfortunately so I am at about 470'. If you want to know the area that has really been amazingly anomalously snowy since 2000-01...I'd put it in this box...draw a line from Upton to Waterbury, CT...draw a second line from about Plainview, Long Island (near Nassau / Suffolk border) up to Danbury, Ct....then draw lines connecting Waterbury to Danbury and another line connecting Upton to Plainview...inside that square...amazingly anomalously snowy over the past 14 winters. I'd say most of the area in that box has seen at least 133% compared to the average...probably locally approaching 150%...and that is over 14 years...and includes several terrible winters factored into the mix ('02, '06, '07, '08, & '12). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Why did accuweather steal my winter 2014-15 forecast? I don't get it look The "snowy" areas in the interior Northeast and "mix" along the coast haven't seen a pattern like that since the early 1990s, so that's probably more of a leap than many would want to admit. The coast has been much more favored for snowy patterns than has been typical if we go back 40-50 years. State College, PA has nearly double the long term snow average of NYC and just higher than Boston, but no one would believe that if you take just the last 15 years. If all of us were living along I-81 in PA instead of where we are, we'd all be in a much different mood about how the last decade of winters has gone. Call it my bias for having lived out there for 5 years, but it's the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Accuweather playing it safe with a reasonable forecast?!! Wow thats something new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The "snowy" areas in the interior Northeast and "mix" along the coast haven't seen a pattern like that since the early 1990s, so that's probably more of a leap than many would want to admit. The coast has been much more favored for snowy patterns than has been typical if we go back 40-50 years. State College, PA has nearly double the long term snow average of NYC and just higher than Boston, but no one would believe that if you take just the last 15 years. If all of us were living along I-81 in PA instead of where we are, we'd all be in a much different mood about how the last decade of winters has gone. Call it my bias for having lived out there for 5 years, but it's the truth. You were in a snow hole. So many storms would bypassed you to the east. But did the winters there actually come in consistently below normal in terms of snowfall? Don't they get more of their snow from smaller systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 found this thread from last year describing winters after a warm October http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41333-winters-after-a-warm-october/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I think predicting total seasonal snowfall for any given station is silly. What should really be predicted is how many '50%+ opportunities, for at least 1"+ of snow a station can expect during the season, and compare this to the long term average. Realize that if a major event misses/makes it by 100 miles and/or a degree or two of temperature---the final seasonal total may be shifted wildly from the average. eg. CPK enters March with just 14" to date and misses a 14" snow possibility as described above, or we enter March with 28" to date and get this storm's full potential---we either end season way above normal due to this one event or way below, ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 New York Gets Frigid Winter Warning From Siberia Snowfall http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/new-york-gets-frigid-winter-warning-from-siberia-snowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/new-york-gets-frigid-winter-warning-from-siberia-snowfall.html I agree with waiting all 31 days to possibly make a final assesment and whether or not this does have any impact on our winter in the tristate. I will say this it wont matter if they're is record cold/snow up north and siberia etc. if we dont have the -AO/NAO, PNA, EPO to cooperate to get the cold air to us during the winter its a mute point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 State College does really well with over running snows before they transition to miller B's. Typically the precip shield associated with coastals are going to miss to the East. Most of the analogs I have seen for this upcoming winter point towards a possible 2009-2010 repeat. Plenty of snow right to the coast, but the heaviest snows were over the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/new-york-gets-frigid-winter-warning-from-siberia-snowfall.html Yes, lets get that polar vortex over us again so that we can be freezing cold and watch all the snow miss to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Yes, lets get that polar vortex over us again so that we can be freezing cold and watch all the snow miss to the south. Yes agree 100% lets all keep in mind who have short term memories that if the PV is too overwhelming and too far south its a game of suppression. be careful what is wished for this winter. I agree as well, a 2009-10 winter repeat seems somewhat likely at this point. I do however want to start seeing more convincing evidence of a weak el nino getting a foothold sometime during this winter as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 State College does really well with over running snows before they transition to miller B's. Typically the precip shield associated with coastals are going to miss to the East. Most of the analogs I have seen for this upcoming winter point towards a possible 2009-2010 repeat. Plenty of snow right to the coast, but the heaviest snows were over the Mid-Atlantic. This storm was great in February of 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 found this thread from last year describing winters after a warm October http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41333-winters-after-a-warm-october/ I updated the post to add last October which ended up averaging 60.2...So far this year Oct. is averaging 62.1...It looks like a cool down could bring the average below 60.0...If it ends up averaging over 60.0 so be it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 This storm was great in February of 2010 Well the beginning of the month had a lot of heartbreak for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Well the beginning of the month had a lot of heartbreak for some of us. Feb 5-6 storm was a headache. I received 2 inches of snow while my family in Staten Island received 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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