BxEngine Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I have to add, locally, not for KLGA or what not. Since this region cannot receive snowfall with above normal temps. I see you mixed a few big years in there, assuming it was not cherry-picked. Lga isnt local? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 really... Agreed. The 'foretelling power' of November's temperatures is quite low, and it pays to look at the hemispheric pattern. We've seen numerous duds following cold Novembers, duds following warm Novembers, and vice versa. A warmer than normal December is a much different story as it generally suggests that the overall winter pattern will be an unfavorable one, though there are exceptions as usual. El Nino years, especially mod+, tend to have warm Decembers followed by colder Jan/Febs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I have to add, locally, not for KLGA or what not. Since this region cannot receive snowfall with above normal temps. I see you mixed a few big years in there, assuming it was not cherry-picked. All of the warm Novembers were garbage here except 09-10. This implies anomalous blocking is overwhleming the system. What are you talking about? Uncle's post is a composite of most of our greatest winters. November was above normal temperature wise. I don't get why there's any argument to be had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I have to add, locally, not for KLGA or what not. Since this region cannot receive snowfall with above normal temps. I see you mixed a few big years in there, assuming it was not cherry-picked. All of the warm Novembers were garbage here except 09-10. This implies anomalous blocking is overwhleming the system. the map is for the snowiest winters on record for KNYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 the map is for the snowiest winters on record for KNYC... I would change the reference temp to 1980-2010 though as temps are obviously warmer now so temps will look more above average when using the 1950-95 block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 the map is for the snowiest winters on record for KNYC... I would like to narrow this down somewhat. A November with a average monthly temperature of 50f+ usually does not turn out well for 40N and south. In terms of the following winter's snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I have to add, locally, not for KLGA or what not. Since this region cannot receive snowfall with above normal temps. I see you mixed a few big years in there, assuming it was not cherry-picked. All of the warm Novembers were garbage here except 09-10. This implies anomalous blocking is overwhleming the system. Where exactly is "here"? I hope you are not referring to Cape May NJ when you most likely average single digit snowfall to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Where exactly is "here"? I hope you are not referring to Cape May NJ when you most likely average single digit snowfall to begin with. Just goes to show you insight from other regions is valuable when implying causation on a mass-scale. Yes, using a Cape May perspective to tie things together. The average snowfall is 17" here, at least around KWWD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I would like to narrow this down somewhat. A November with a average monthly temperature of 50f+ usually does not turn out well for 40N and south. In terms of the following winter's snowfall. Ok do you realize this is a NYC sub forum? lol.. Everyone that belongs here in this sub forum are 40N & north not "south". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Just goes to show you insight from other regions is valuable when implying causation on a mass-scale. Yes, using a Cape May perspective to tie things together. The average snowfall is 17" here, at least KWWD. My point is you continue to harp on this nonsense in this thread. All you do is constantly derail it. To try and apply local weather/climate of Cape May NJ to lets say Sussex, NJ is just utterly ridiculous. Honestly no one here cares if extreme S NJ does terrible snowfall wise when you have warm novemebers. If thats the point you wanna make go into the Phl forum or Mid-atlantic please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Just goes to show you insight from other regions is valuable when implying causation on a mass-scale. Yes, using a Cape May perspective to tie things together. The average snowfall is 17" here, at least around KWWD. The problem is you've had a bunch of terrible winters when the NYC area has really cashed in. You are so far south that you're more likely to compare to Delaware winters than to what happens up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I would like to narrow this down somewhat. A November with a average monthly temperature of 50f+ usually does not turn out well for 40N and south. In terms of the following winter's snowfall. the average snowfall for 50+ Novembers is 23.9" if you count 1953 and 1960 with a November averaging 49.7... 1902...1931...1941...1946...1948...1953...1960...1963...1975...1979...1982...1985...1990...1994...1999... 2001...2003...2006...2009...2011...20 years...11 were below average...three were near average...six above average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 the average snowfall for 50+ Novembers is 23.9" if you count 1953 and 1960 with a November averaging 49.7... 1902...1931...1941...1946...1948...1953...1960...1963...1975...1979...1982...1985...1990...1994...1999... 2001...2003...2006...2009...2011...20 years...11 were below average...three were near average...six above average... Looking deeper into the month is key as well, 1985 and 2003 I believe were skewed heavily by 1 very warm week while the rest of November averaged only a tad above normal, 01 and 06 the pattern sucked all month and as I believe maybe you also said you have to look at the pattern elsewhere around the NH...in November 03 western Canada which was under a trof was frigid with temps in Edmonton 20 below 0, I remember the NHL played an outdoor game and it was insanely cold. I always tell people who ask me when November is warm "how many times have you seen May be very cool or have a bunch of 90 degree days and then the summer ends up somewhat the opposite?" It seems to happen often and November and May are basically sister months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Just goes to show you insight from other regions is valuable when implying causation on a mass-scale. Yes, using a Cape May perspective to tie things together. The average snowfall is 17" here, at least around KWWD. The average annual snowfall in Cape May, NJ is about 13 inches...several miles up the coast, Atlantic City has an average of about 15 inches. Cape May is almost certainly the least snowy location in the state of New Jersey...up at the obelisk on top of High Point...that would of course be the snowiest spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The average annual snowfall in Cape May, NJ is about 13 inches...several miles up the coast, Atlantic City has an average of about 15 inches. Cape May is almost certainly the least snowy location in the state of New Jersey...up at the obelisk on top of High Point...that would of course be the snowiest spot. Given its small size the transition in weather across NJ is quite remarkable...with Cape May experiencing winters similar to those in Richmond VA...while Sussex County has more in common with the LHV and NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The average annual snowfall in Cape May, NJ is about 13 inches...several miles up the coast, Atlantic City has an average of about 15 inches. Cape May is almost certainly the least snowy location in the state of New Jersey...up at the obelisk on top of High Point...that would of course be the snowiest spot. It is not 13 inches, mabye right on the beach. Lol Besides the point, we got dumped on many times, it's feast or famine most of the time. I think this will be a 40N winter and I would be okay with that. 09-10, 10-11, and 13-14 were immensely snowy here with 09-10 being the snowiest on record. Back to your NYC/winter discussion, thank you for caring tho. Cape May holds the record for the heaviest daily snowfall in NJ. 1899 storm I believe. 36" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Back to your NYC discussion, thank you for caring tho. Cape May holds the record for the heaviest daily snowfall in NJ. 1899 storm I believe. 36" It was 34 inches over 3 days...9 inches on 2/12/1899, 20 inches on 2/13/1899 and 5 inches on 2/14/1899...propagated by one of the densest and coldest anticyclones you will ever see....central pressure of 31.15" I think. One needs an exceptionally cold air mass to get big snows on the Delmarva & SE coast of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 It is not 13 inches, mabye right on the beach. Lol Truth be told...that whole area looks like a beach...I don't think you can get a 4 inch increase in average annual snowfall in that part of the country by going 1 or 2 miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The 1980-2010 30-year average data yields a mean annual snowfall of 14.3" for Cape May, NJ. For the Atlantic City, that same 30-year period yields a mean of 15.6". http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=phi One can see the enormous differential throughout NJ on my map here. Low 60s on average for High Point, down to around 15" in Cape May (I probably could have extended that down to near 14", but it's quite close). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Truth be told...that whole area looks like a beach...I don't think you can get a 4 inch increase in snowfall in that part of the country by going 1 or 2 miles inland. http://average-snowfall.findthebest.com/d/a/New-Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 If the rest of the 2010's continues to be a snowy decade overall, we will see the 30-year normals (1990-2020) increase again. The current 30-year running normals (1983-84 through 2013-14) are now essentially 30" for Newark and New Brunswick (29.7 and 29.9 respectively). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 http://average-snowfall.findthebest.com/d/a/New-Jersey There's a lot of data there...what do you specifically want me to focus in on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 There's a lot of data there...what do you specifically want me to focus in on? Those numbers look generally 3-5" underdone everywhere based on a quick scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The 1980-2010 30-year average data yields a mean annual snowfall of 14.3" for Cape May, NJ. For the Atlantic City, that same 30-year period yields a mean of 15.6". http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=phi One can see the enormous differential throughout NJ on my map here. Low 60s on average for High Point, down to around 15" in Cape May (I probably could have extended that down to near 14", but it's quite close). I don't know...you said 14.3 inches for the last 30 years...I said 13 inches...where talking a de minimis difference...but the reason is because I generally give what I believe to be the so called true average...rather that the average from a recent sample. Both methods are legitimate. It was unusually snowy in the 80's in central Jersey...especially 1986-87...not sure if that extended all the way to the south...and the 2009-10 winter certainly threw the stats off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 There's a lot of data there...what do you specifically want me to focus in on? That only Bordentown averages less than Cape May . His Cape May and 40N argument did not make much sense to me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Those numbers look generally 3-5" underdone everywhere based on a quick scan. Yeh, they are on the light side . I was looking for the differences between Cape May and High point . Posted just as you threw yours up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Given its small size the transition in weather across NJ is quite remarkable...with Cape May experiencing winters similar to those in Richmond VA...while Sussex County has more in common with the LHV and NW CT. It is quite remarkable. Probably due to NJ's location adjacent to the ocean, right around 40N latitude, where the transition away from a generally sub-tropical climate occurs, plus the higher terrain in the NW corner of the state, and you're looking at a massive difference. Once into New England, the transition away from the sub-tropical climate is done, so the snowfall increases from coast to mountains generally aren't as dramatic, but I must say, MA is very impressive and comparable to NJ. Nantucket I believe averages in the low 20s, while the higher terrain of W MA is > 70". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 That only Bordentown averages less than Cape May . His Cape May and 40N argument did not make much sense to me . I mean I don't even know where Bordentown is...and though stats may show some town less snowy than Cape May...well, we all know based on the essential rules of geography & climatology that it is the least snowy spot in the state...I don't need stats to tell me that the top of MT Greylock is definitely the snowiest spot in Massachusetts for example...the 3491' altitude tells me that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 It is quite remarkable. Probably due to NJ's location adjacent to the ocean, right around 40N latitude, where the transition away from a generally sub-tropical climate occurs, plus the higher terrain in the NW corner of the state, and you're looking at a massive difference. Once into New England, the transition away from the sub-tropical climate is done, so the snowfall increases from coast to mountains generally aren't as dramatic, but I must say, MA is very impressive and comparable to NJ. Nantucket I believe averages in the low 20s, while the higher terrain of W MA is > 70". Another salient factor is the position of the general winter storm track across N. America...often bisecting the state and allowing surges of warm air up the Mason Dixon line or thereabouts while the northern half stays frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 I don't know...you said 14.3 inches for the last 30 years...I said 13 inches...where talking a de minimis difference...but the reason is because I generally give what I believe to be the so called true average...rather that the average from a recent sample. Both methods are legitimate. It was unusually snowy in the 80's in central Jersey...especially 1986-87...not sure if that extended all the way to the south...and the 2009-10 winter certainly threw the stats off a bit. Agreed, there are different ways to measure average snowfall. For example, NYC's 1970-2000 average would almost certainly underestimate their average snowfall. For Cape May, we can say with confidence that their 'normal' is fairly close to Washington DC's actually, and their distribution of snowy winters seems to be similar as well -- generally sporadic major winters with a dominance of low scoring years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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