PB GFI Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Maps and discussion on the brand new (Sep) JAMSTEC run over on the MA thread. Bottom line points... 1) warmer than Aug run - now warmer than normal for NYC for winter 2) but cold not far away, warm anomalies not intense, and overall pattern looks good. Also leans wet, so probably not an atrocious winter for us... if u take it at face value as being correct, but... 3) the Sep run last year was a disaster (torchfest predicted) 4) fwiw, MAM is shown to be brutal. So, that could support wintry precip through March. Model output can be found here: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html Yeh Last Sept . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 NOAA DJF outlook is out - Its not terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Does anyone have the latest readings in the pacific regarding our possible EL Nino? Still warming or status quo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 I think if the two sleet storms in 2006-07 were snow there would have been close to 30" that year... Yeah those storms were obscene. 4" of sleet here for both events. There was a nice snow squall at the end of sleet fest one that dropped an additional 1.5" on top of the 4" of sleet that ended up at least partially salvaging that event here. But I'll never forget those GFS QPF maps showing all purple with 850's well south of the area just 48hrs before the event. That storm truly hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 I think if the two sleet storms in 2006-07 were snow there would have been close to 30" that year... That was a bad snow year everywhere... <Image per permission of board member NorthShoreWx> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 That was a bad snow year everywhere... <Image per permission of board member NorthShoreWx> Nice map... Extremely accurate for this neck of the woods. Finished with just about 30" that winter. Disaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 That was a bad snow year everywhere... <Image per permission of board member NorthShoreWx> Yep, craptastic winter for sure. I had more sleet accumulation than total snowfall. Some parts of my county had over 7" of sleet for that winter. My map for 2006-07 agrees nicely w/ Northshorewx. Maximum totals in NJ were at High Point, around 30-35" and well below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Yep, craptastic winter for sure. I had more sleet accumulation than total snowfall. Some parts of my county had over 7" of sleet for that winter. My map for 2006-07 agrees nicely w/ Northshorewx. Maximum totals in NJ were at High Point, around 30-35" and well below average. NorthShoreWx gave me carte blanche to post his maps as long as properly attributed so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 You left out 2010-2011. Couldn't get my car unburied from my driveway for weeks. Snowstorm after snowstorm. Was very awesome and slightly annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I don't know how to post a picture but if you want I'll give you the link to see the winter 2014-15 forecast map Go to: http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/community/groups/viewdiscussion/1038-winter-2014-15-forecast?groupid=40 Just in case you didn't go to the blog, I think this winter expect another very snowy winter for Mid Atlantic and Northeast. I don't think it'll be as cold as the polar vortex will focus a bit more west from last year's winter, just north of International falls, MN. Snow could the most snow could be found in the Oklahoma state, New Mexico, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas State, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania. Any state that's above that blue line in the image above could get snow but the closer you are to the blue line the more snow you may get. Expected snowfall for this winter for major cities: Philadelphia: 48 inches, NYC: 54, D.C: 36, Cleveland:72 Birmingham: 14, OK city: 32, Denver: 50, Saint Louis: 43, Chicago: 44, Detroit: 47, Minneapolis: 60 Amarillo 49, Little Rock: 12, Richmond: 26, Pittsburgh: 56, Allentown, PA 76, Hartford: 68, Montauk: 33, Albany: 64, Syracuse: 102, Boston: 59, Caribou: 70, Atlanta: 3, Salt Lake City: 51, Scottsbluff: 68, Marquette: 109, Seattle: 5, Portland: 4, Cut BankL 43, Yellowstone National Park: 98 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I don't know how to post a picture but if you want I'll give you the link to see the winter 2014-15 forecast map Go to: http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/community/groups/viewdiscussion/1038-winter-2014-15-forecast?groupid=40 Just in case you didn't go to the blog, I think this winter expect another very snowy winter for Mid Atlantic and Northeast. I don't think it'll be as cold as the polar vortex will focus a bit more west from last year's winter, just north of International falls, MN. Snow could the most snow could be found in the Oklahoma state, New Mexico, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas State, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania. Any state that's above that blue line in the image above could get snow but the closer you are to the blue line the more snow you may get. Expected snowfall for this winter for major cities: Philadelphia: 48 inches, NYC: 54, D.C: 36, Cleveland:72 Birmingham: 14, OK city: 32, Denver: 50, Saint Louis: 43, Chicago: 44, Detroit: 47, Minneapolis: 60 Amarillo 49, Little Rock: 12, Richmond: 26, Pittsburgh: 56, Allentown, PA 76, Hartford: 68, Montauk: 33, Albany: 64, Syracuse: 102, Boston: 59, Caribou: 70, Atlanta: 3, Salt Lake City: 51, Scottsbluff: 68, Marquette: 109, Seattle: 5, Portland: 4, Cut BankL 43, Yellowstone National Park: 98 inches. Only 98 inches for Yellowstone? Don't they have that much already by this time of year? Lol, j/k. Nice forecast and hoping you verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 How come CFSv2 monthly outlooks show such few below normal temperature areas in the US (if any till March), while major forecasters are calling for cold and snow. I can see the chance for above normal precip. in these same charts---but will it be snow? I know good snow cover begets cold, but above normal 500mb's. seem to plague us for most of winter and before too. Note next 2 weeks could have above normal 2mT and heights,. and weeklies promise same for next 5 weeks. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 How come CFSv2 monthly outlooks show such few below normal temperature areas in the US (if any till March), while major forecasters are calling for cold and snow. I can see the chance for above normal precip. in these same charts---but will it be snow? I know good snow cover begets cold, but above normal 500mb's. seem to plague us for most of winter and before too. Note next 2 weeks could have above normal 2mT and heights,. and weeklies promise same for next 5 weeks. What gives? Global baseline is shifting up, despite how ferociously others will deny this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 How come CFSv2 monthly outlooks show such few below normal temperature areas in the US (if any till March), while major forecasters are calling for cold and snow. I can see the chance for above normal precip. in these same charts---but will it be snow? I know good snow cover begets cold, but above normal 500mb's. seem to plague us for most of winter and before too. Note next 2 weeks could have above normal 2mT and heights,. and weeklies promise same for next 5 weeks. What gives? Because it's wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Because it's wrong? It did really well last winter several months in advance. It also nailed the vast majority of the planet being above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 It did really well last winter several months in advance. It also nailed the vast majority of the planet being above normal. Past performance doesn't translate to future success. Someone smart once said that, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Past performance doesn't translate to future success. Someone smart once said that, lol. But I'm responding to someone that said a prediction is wrong before the forecast period even begun. So all we have to go on is past performance. That's what verification scores are for and why the Euro is considered the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 It did really well last winter several months in advance. It also nailed the vast majority of the planet being above normal. The CFS? Are you sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 If past performance of the CFS past 15 days is any indicator, you might want to flip a coin. I downloaded their PowerPoint with their own verifications from 1982-2009. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2HCSTmonthlyForecastSkill.pptx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Global baseline is shifting up, despite how ferociously others will deny this. As I've suggested in replies to Mid-Atlantic posts you've made, I feel you've been overestimating how much the warmer global baseline is influencing things. The globe is only ~2 degrees F warmer than it was 100+ years ago and only a fraction of that on average over the last decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 The CFS? Are you sure? I was looking at last year's September forecast. Of course the CFS is erratic and so I wouldn't take it too seriously. This wasn't that bad considering it was made in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I was looking at last year's September forecast. Of course the CFS is erratic and so I wouldn't take it too seriously. This wasn't that bad considering it was made in September. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/201310/htmls/glbT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 If past performance of the CFS past 15 days is any indicator, you might want to flip a coin. I downloaded their PowerPoint with their own verifications from 1982-2009. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2HCSTmonthlyForecastSkill.pptx Oh I believe you it's not that good, as is every long term forecasting model. But you can't say it's wrong when the forecast period hasn't even started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/201310/htmls/glbT2me3Mon.html Yea it started becoming wrong as it got closer in, which is pretty bad. Check out its winter forecast from July: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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