Early discussion Winter 2014/15

[TonyLovesSnow]

You're not the only one my friend. I'm also a big weather enthusiast. I like to track hurricanes in the summer, but by far my favorite time of year is the winter and prospects for snow. When a big storm approaches, I'll often get giddy, which only aggravates my wife and family.

Hahaha

[IsentropicLift]

Hahaha I thought I was the only snow weenie until I came here lol we are going to have a blast this winter that's for sure.

Just wait until December. This board will be full of weenies as far as the eye can see.

[dbc]

Hahaha I thought I was the only snow weenie until I came here lol we are going to have a blast this winter that's for sure.

When I started frequenting message boards back in the days of the Weather Channel Winter 2000 Message Boards and then Wright-Weather, I was stunned to see how many people out there loved wild weather particularly snow. I thought I was the only one out there who loved snow and blizzards. I was shocked to see how many people loved it so much and desperately wanted to see snow just like I did. Quite the EUREKA! moment lol.

[Sundog]

Just wait until December. This board will be full of weenies as far as the eye can see.

It already is. People need to use discretion when making outrageous posts. Apparently that's a lost art.

[Rjay]

[PB GFI]

I don`t get excited when I see  warm water in the N Atlantic this in Sept  or Oct . Too often I have seen  late fall Noreaster`s rip through this area and cool these waters off .

 

The water S of the Aleutians mean business for a NEG EPO . But I will hold off on looking for a NEG NAO unless I  see this in Dec .

[PB GFI]

Better look at the N Atlantic

[hosj III]

Better look at the N Atlantic

Favorable North Atlantic Tripole?

[PB GFI]

Favorable North Atlantic Tripole?

That warm water should promote high pressure in the N Atlantic once Into Dec Jan Feb .

Just a little early for me to look for that

I def like the neg EPO signal this far out.

[WintersGrasp]

The way winters have gone for past several years based on the forecasts of the major weather outlets, there is s simple formula that many of them follow : if there was a lot of snow the year before, they will usually say we are in for a winter just as snowy or snowier than last year.....if there was not a lot of snow the year before, they will usual say there are equal chances, or about average. Not only have many of the major forecasts not been correct, they have been completely opposite of what occurred! What they fail to (and really can't) take into account is that we get most of our snows here on the east coast in the form of major nor'easters. We could be dry and bitterly cold with many fronts that drop 2" of snow and a few 2-4" storms or 1-2" clippers and end up with 15-20" of snow.....and it'd be both a brutal and less snowy winter. However, we could go normal to above average temp wise and no snow all winter, and then close it off with 2 15-30" nor'easters and end up with 30-60" of snow.....and it'd be considered a very snowy winter. Point being.....our snow totals are VERY hard to predict. We could in one to two storms go from ZERO snow to ABOVE AVERAGE for the entire season. All in all, since we can't pinpoint if, when, and in what areas a major coastal snowstorm will hit and effect, it is therefore impossible to accurately predict an "epic snow season". Cold and frequent snow events ? Sure.....but that could mean below average temps with 15" total

[rclab]

The way winters have gone for past several years based on the forecasts of the major weather outlets, there is s simple formula that many of them follow : if there was a lot of snow the year before, they will usually say we are in for a winter just as snowy or snowier than last year.....if there was not a lot of snow the year before, they will usual say there are equal chances, or about average. Not only have many of the major forecasts not been correct, they have been completely opposite of what occurred! What they fail to (and really can't) take into account is that we get most of our snows here on the east coast in the form of major nor'easters. We could be dry and bitterly cold with many fronts that drop 2" of snow and a few 2-4" storms or 1-2" clippers and end up with 15-20" of snow.....and it'd be both a brutal and less snowy winter. However, we could go normal to above average temp wise and no snow all winter, and then close it off with 2 15-30" nor'easters and end up with 30-60" of snow.....and it'd be considered a very snowy winter. Point being.....our snow totals are VERY hard to predict. We could in one to two storms go from ZERO snow to ABOVE AVERAGE for the entire season. All in all, since we can't pinpoint if, when, and in what areas a major coastal snowstorm will hit and effect, it is therefore impossible to accurately predict an "epic snow season". Cold and frequent snow events ? Sure.....but that could mean below average temps with 15" total

Your screen name certainly fits, thank you. In our dynamic area a few miles in any direction can seemingly spell the difference.

[Morris]

The way winters have gone for past several years based on the forecasts of the major weather outlets, there is s simple formula that many of them follow : if there was a lot of snow the year before, they will usually say we are in for a winter just as snowy or snowier than last year.....if there was not a lot of snow the year before, they will usual say there are equal chances, or about average. Not only have many of the major forecasts not been correct, they have been completely opposite of what occurred! What they fail to (and really can't) take into account is that we get most of our snows here on the east coast in the form of major nor'easters. We could be dry and bitterly cold with many fronts that drop 2" of snow and a few 2-4" storms or 1-2" clippers and end up with 15-20" of snow.....and it'd be both a brutal and less snowy winter. However, we could go normal to above average temp wise and no snow all winter, and then close it off with 2 15-30" nor'easters and end up with 30-60" of snow.....and it'd be considered a very snowy winter. Point being.....our snow totals are VERY hard to predict. We could in one to two storms go from ZERO snow to ABOVE AVERAGE for the entire season. All in all, since we can't pinpoint if, when, and in what areas a major coastal snowstorm will hit and effect, it is therefore impossible to accurately predict an "epic snow season". Cold and frequent snow events ? Sure.....but that could mean below average temps with 15" total

Bingo

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The way winters have gone for past several years based on the forecasts of the major weather outlets, there is s simple formula that many of them follow : if there was a lot of snow the year before, they will usually say we are in for a winter just as snowy or snowier than last year.....if there was not a lot of snow the year before, they will usual say there are equal chances, or about average. Not only have many of the major forecasts not been correct, they have been completely opposite of what occurred! What they fail to (and really can't) take into account is that we get most of our snows here on the east coast in the form of major nor'easters. We could be dry and bitterly cold with many fronts that drop 2" of snow and a few 2-4" storms or 1-2" clippers and end up with 15-20" of snow.....and it'd be both a brutal and less snowy winter. However, we could go normal to above average temp wise and no snow all winter, and then close it off with 2 15-30" nor'easters and end up with 30-60" of snow.....and it'd be considered a very snowy winter. Point being.....our snow totals are VERY hard to predict. We could in one to two storms go from ZERO snow to ABOVE AVERAGE for the entire season. All in all, since we can't pinpoint if, when, and in what areas a major coastal snowstorm will hit and effect, it is therefore impossible to accurately predict an "epic snow season". Cold and frequent snow events ? Sure.....but that could mean below average temps with 15" total

Yeah predicting snow is kind of a crap shoot. It isn't necessarily dependent on cold vs warm temps as you alluded too.

[Absolute Humidity]

The Greenland 500 mb heights in October since 2002 has given a good indication of the

winter snowfall potential most years. A reading below 530 since 2002 usually meant 

a below normal snowfall winter. While most 530 or higher Octobers featured 

normal to above normal winter snowfall. 10 out of the last 12 winters the relationship worked.

 

Year/ Greenland October 500 mb heights/ NYC winter snowfall

 

2002 538........49.3"

2003 535........42.6"

2004 535........41.0"

2005 530........40.0"2006 539........12.4"....relationship didn't work despite the strong February blocking and cold2007 527........11.9"2008 524........27.6"...relationship didn't work since the winter snowfall was near normal

2009 531........51.4"

2010 532........61.9"2011 525........7.4"

2012 536.......26.1"....higher amounts east with February blizzard 

2013 532.......57.4"

"2012 536.......26.1"....higher amounts east with February blizzard"

And South due to the Nov 8th snow bomb.

[uncle W]

The Greenland 500 mb heights in October since 2002 has given a good indication of the

winter snowfall potential most years. A reading below 530 since 2002 usually meant 

a below normal snowfall winter. While most 530 or higher Octobers featured 

normal to above normal winter snowfall. 10 out of the last 12 winters the relationship worked.

 

Year/ Greenland October 500 mb heights/ NYC winter snowfall

 

2002 538........49.3"

2003 535........42.6"

2004 535........41.0"

2005 530........40.0"

2006 539........12.4"....relationship didn't work despite the strong February blocking and cold

2007 527........11.9"

2008 524........27.6"...relationship didn't work since the winter snowfall was near normal

2009 531........51.4"

2010 532........61.9"

2011 525........7.4"

2012 536.......26.1"....higher amounts east with February blizzard 

2013 532.......57.4"

I think if the two sleet storms in 2006-07 were snow there would have been close to 30" that year...

[Guest Pamela]

It already is. People need to use discretion when making outrageous posts. Apparently that's a lost art.

 

I would think the act *itself* of making an outrageous post would sort of nullify any attempt to appear discrete...

[Guest Pamela]

 People need to use discretion when making outrageous posts. Apparently that's a lost art.

 

Oh the condescension!

[Guest Pamela]

2-3 degrees above normal for the coast means you can kiss any snowfall goodbye. Those are horrible departures for anyone in the megalopolis.

 

Generally the colder it is, the better chances for above average seasonal snowfall*...though the relationship is not absolute...like most things in life, day to day excellence is more or less meaningless...once must succeed only when it *counts*...thus, with a bit of luck, a mild winter can occasionally yield above average snowfall if it is cold at the opportune times. There have been numerous winters that were exceptionally cold but the amount of snow was only average or in some cases below average.

 

*Note that's in these parts...in colder climates milder winters sometimes yield heavier snowfalls since warm air can hold more moisture than cold air...at least in a metaphorical sense. 

[Guest Pamela]

The way winters have gone for past several years based on the forecasts of the major weather outlets, there is s simple formula that many of them follow : if there was a lot of snow the year before, they will usually say we are in for a winter just as snowy or snowier than last year.....if there was not a lot of snow the year before, they will usual say there are equal chances, or about average. Not only have many of the major forecasts not been correct, they have been completely opposite of what occurred! What they fail to (and really can't) take into account is that we get most of our snows here on the east coast in the form of major nor'easters. We could be dry and bitterly cold with many fronts that drop 2" of snow and a few 2-4" storms or 1-2" clippers and end up with 15-20" of snow.....and it'd be both a brutal and less snowy winter. However, we could go normal to above average temp wise and no snow all winter, and then close it off with 2 15-30" nor'easters and end up with 30-60" of snow.....and it'd be considered a very snowy winter. Point being.....our snow totals are VERY hard to predict. We could in one to two storms go from ZERO snow to ABOVE AVERAGE for the entire season. All in all, since we can't pinpoint if, when, and in what areas a major coastal snowstorm will hit and effect, it is therefore impossible to accurately predict an "epic snow season". Cold and frequent snow events ? Sure.....but that could mean below average temps with 15" total

 

Yes I agree with what you have written...average annual snowfall is generally low to moderate in the tri-state area...it does not take much to throw a forecast for below normal snowfall off.. 1982-83 & 2005-06 come to mind...with one storm making up the bulk of the snowfall budget...in fairness, December 2005 was pretty snowy from Central Park north & west. 

A good deal easier to make a seasonal snowfall forecast for the Sierras...where all one needs to know is if it will be wet...temperature is never really a factor above say 5000' or so.

[Sundog]

Generally the colder it is, the better chances for above average seasonal snowfall*...though the relationship is not absolute...like most things in life, day to day excellence is more or less meaningless...once must succeed only when it *counts*...thus, with a bit of luck, a mild winter can occasionally yield above average snowfall if it is cold at the opportune times. There have been numerous winters that were exceptionally cold but the amount of snow was only average or in some cases below average.

*Note that's in these parts...in colder climates milder winters sometimes yield heavier snowfalls since warm air can hold more moisture than cold air...at least in a metaphorical sense.

I'd rather take my chances with below normal temps. We're really not that cold of a climate all things considered. So a few degrees above normal may be good for interior locations with elevation or farther north like Vermont, but here on the coast I'd rather avoid above normal temps. Of course you get the occasional storm like February 2006 in overall warm winters but that thing pulled off a magician's trick of vanishing almost as quickly as it fell. That's not fun, at least for me.

[SnoSki14]

We can't get away with normal in winter with above normal snowfall very often and it's probably a rare occurrence anyway. I agree that further north in New England especially just inland that having above normal temps is still ok and can yield plenty of snow but not here.

[uncle W]

NYC's least snowiest winters...

[Absolute Humidity]

Soon just found this guy IMBY. I have no idea what its suppose to mean per folk lore.

[Rtd208]

Soon just found this guy IMBY. I have no idea what its suppose to mean per folk lore.

According to folklore, the wider the brown section of the Woolly Bear Catepillar is or the more brown segments it has means the winter will be more mild. The narrower the brown section  is or the less brown segments it has means the winter will be more harsh. If there is any truth to this then by looking at the picture that you took would tell us the upcoming winter will be colder and more harsh then mild.

[Absolute Humidity]

According to folklore, the wider the brown section of the Woolly Bear Catepillar is or the more brown segments it has means the winter will be more mild. The narrower the brown section  is or the less brown segments it has means the winter will be more harsh. If there is any truth to this then by looking at the picture that you took would tell us the upcoming winter will be colder and more harsh then mild.

Then that settles it - bring on the snow!

[millwx]

New GMAO/GEOS5 forecast out:

 

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/products/climateforecasts/GEOS5/request.cgi?varmain=AFA

 

Pretty neutral temps (slightly warm NE...but barely).  But much cooler than the August run.

 

Actually, it was supposed to be posted a long time ago (their SST forecast already was).  I think they had an issue they weren't aware of.  As soon as I asked them about it this morning, less than an hour later, it was posted.  

[millwx]

GEOS5 link above not working for some reason.  Web site seems fine.  Anyway, here's their DJF forecast:

 

[PB GFI]

GEOS5 link above not working for some reason.  Web site seems fine.  Anyway, here's their DJF forecast:

 

Coldest run of the CFSV2  for DJF. 

[millwx]

Don't know why the link I posted before doesn't work.  The NASA GMAO/GEOS5 website is working just fine.  Try this one (use the menu on the left to navigate to the parameters you want):

 

http://gmao.gsfc.nas...GEOS5/index.cgi

 

...hope that works!

[millwx]

Maps and discussion on the brand new (Sep) JAMSTEC run over on the MA thread. Bottom line points...

1) warmer than Aug run - now warmer than normal for NYC for winter

2) but cold not far away, warm anomalies not intense, and overall pattern looks good. Also leans wet, so probably not an atrocious winter for us... if u take it at face value as being correct, but...

3) the Sep run last year was a disaster (torchfest predicted)

4) fwiw, MAM is shown to be brutal. So, that could support wintry precip through March.

Model output can be found here:

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html