SACRUS Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 We'll be shoveling in five months. Really like the look for next winter. Seems like we could continue where last winter left off. weak nino - EPO (Alaskan ridge part ii) we never really lost this yet. +TNH pattern ? looks to continue. WXrisk mentioned it last winter. Neutral to negative AO Arctic looks to be chilling down already Neutral NAO look likely I think a good to great winter. I think lots of shoveling again. What do you think ?? Once the impatiens shrivel up in four months, and the frosts arrive. Time to think I'm giving this winter some thought. I will keep an eye on the pattern. So far it looks alright. One thing for sure we might have larger nor'easters with much colder temps (a colder V-Day 2014 Nor'easter). I'm basing this on where we are going so far. Not mentioning P-Types though. Any further detailed analysis will be pointless unless if we look at the bigger picture. If we get a weak El-Niño next winter is going to be good. That's pretty likely, but an El Nino Modoki is unclear ATM. 06-07 was a weak El Nino, that was a great winter here? I don't know where people got that a weak el nino is all way need to ensure a great winter around here. So many other things have to go right 2nd half was brutally cold. We just didnt luck out with storms unless the sleet fest is your thing. I prefer last year's -epo regime. Very cold snowstorms and cold overall. None of the annoying borderline 31-33 degree snow. Give me 15 degrees and light to moderate snow all day over 32 degrees and moderate to heavy snow. I was unable to find this information on the Upton page so I only have Mt. Holly to work with. Since the 1949-1950 winter we've had 5 other weak Nina's. Of those 5, all 5 had at least one 6" or more snowfall at Philadelphia and 3 had a 10" or more snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 We did really well in 2010-2011 in a La Nina until we lost the major blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Warm and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/national/FXUS05 Found this interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Warm and wet Cold and snowy north and west of I-95, warm and wet south and east of I-95. Revenge for the past few winters I think. The Polar Vortex displaced further north this year should allow for a storm track closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 People already have their winter forecasts out. SMH. Toooo early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 what do folks think about the warm pool of water in the NE pacific? Any chance we can get another winter of a -EPO out of that? (assuming the warm pool hangs on) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Warm and wet You should move to Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Cold and snowy north and west of I-95, warm and wet south and east of I-95. Revenge for the past few winters I think. The Polar Vortex displaced further north this year should allow for a storm track closer to the coast. Generally winters are one or the other...or when there is a battleground its an average temperature winter with more snow N&W as one would expect. If you're saying warm and wet SE of I-95 its probably going to also be near to above normal temperature wise N&W too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 You should move to Florida He gets just as excited during winter time as all of the other snow weenies around here. #troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Generally winters are one or the other...or when there is a battleground its an average temperature winter with more snow N&W as one would expect. If you're saying warm and wet SE of I-95 its probably going to also be near to above normal temperature wise N&W too. Those winters my area is normally a battleground and when the coast flips over to rain I usually eventually will also. The upside of the El Nino is more available moisture. Should be some big events if it materializes. Of couse a strong El Nino would be terrible as the winter would end up mostly wet and warm unless you're in PA or Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Those winters my area is normally a battleground and when the coast flips over to rain I usually eventually will also. The upside of the El Nino is more available moisture. Should be some big events if it materializes. Of couse a strong El Nino would be terrible as the winter would end up mostly wet and warm unless you're in PA or Upstate NY. A strong El Nino is almost certainly not happening given latest trends. If we have one I think it stays weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 A strong El Nino is almost certainly not happening given latest trends. If we have one I think it stays weak. Agreed, a weak Nino seems likely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Agreed, a weak Nino seems likely right now. The coast and mid atlantic usually does well in those winters as well..ala 2002-03/2009-10 but still other factors will come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 The coast and mid atlantic usually does well in those winters as well..ala 2002-03/2009-10 but still other factors will come into Both of those winters had a lot of blocking and big events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 CPC gives a 78% chance of an El Nino of any strength developing by late fall. They state that current conditions suggest a "borderline moderate" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Agreed, a weak Nino seems likely right now. Weak Nino with a -NAO,-AO, and + PNA will be really nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 If this current pattern continues a few months from now then things should be good. It looks like the biggest thing in place is a western ridge fueled by warm SSTS around that region so -EPO could be at play again. Any EL Niño influence is really good especially if we a nice storm track and enough of a -NAO to help us out compared to last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 https://patriotpost.us/opinion/27394 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Is this thread really happening? Lol carry on. I hope it's cold and snowy for all the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Is this thread really happening? Lol carry on. I hope it's cold and snowy for all the weenies. Only because it started clogging up the summer threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoggyO Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 I would love to have a "Warm and wet" Winter, but almost every model currently indicates that the Eastern half of the US will be colder than normal. The coldest temps (against normal) will be from the Tenn Valley region through Virginia/North Carolina. In the New York "area" expect below average cold and more snow than last year (if that's possible). Will have to wait for the pattern to development during the Winter to find out where the "Bullseye" will be for snow amounts, but I have a feeling that School "snow days" will be all used up before the 22th of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 I would love to have a "Warm and wet" Winter, but almost every model currently indicates that the Eastern half of the US will be colder than normal. The coldest temps (against normal) will be from the Tenn Valley region through Virginia/North Carolina. In the New York "area" expect below average cold and more snow than last year (if that's possible). Will have to wait for the pattern to development during the Winter to find out where the "Bullseye" will be for snow amounts, but I have a feeling that School "snow days" will be all used up before the 22th of January. El Nino winters are typically second-half favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 most of the strongest El Nino's developed in the April/May/June trimonthly period...most of the weaker ones developed in the August/September/October trimonthly period...none of the strong el nino's developed in the ASO period and no weak el nino developed in the AMJ period...If we get an el nino this year it should end up on the weak side...The strongest el nino's in order using oni and the mei with max enso for those years...This year MJJ period won't be an official tri monthly period...It could start next month or never... year....oni max......nino start...MEI max 1997...2.4....AMJ.....................2.999 1982...2.2....AMJ.....................3.039 1972...2.1....AMJ.....................1.911 1965...1.9....AMJ.....................1.483 1957...1.8....MAM....................1.453 1991...1.6....AMJ.....................2.271 2009...1.6....JJA......................1.517 1963...1.4....MJJ......................0.856 1986...1.3....JAS.....................2.122 2002...1.3....AMJ.....................1.158 1951...1.2....JJA......................0.858 1994...1.2....ASO....................1.434 2006...1.0....ASO....................1.290 1976...0.8....ASO....................1.026 1977...0.8....ASO....................1.007 2004...0.8....JJA......................1.018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 It may hit 90 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 ^^^ Wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 ^^^ Wrong thread I think you need to get the enso right before you can make a long range forecast...we had four winters in a row with a negative enso...there was talk of a strong el nino but that ain't happening...1976 could be a good analog but I doubt it can get that cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 I think the ENSO will be near neutral during winter. We'll see. People need to stop humping El Nino and look at the main forum ENSO thread for further details. I learn a lot reading that thread. Winter could feature a Nino but it shouldn't be a strong or even a moderate one. IMO we have as good of a chance of a weak Nina as we do a moderate Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 A weak Niño would be ideal for winter conditions in NYC...analogs could include 03-04, 77-78, 76-77, 63-64. All of these were classic winters for the metro area. We haven't seen a lot of clunkers with the weak warm ENSO state, especially when you have a +PDO. The SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska and North Pacific look ideal for a western ridge/+PNA pattern this coming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Cold and snowy north and west of I-95, warm and wet south and east of I-95. Revenge for the past few winters I think. Sort of a post at odds with reality; i.e. if it is cold or anomalously cold north of a particular dividing line (like the highway you cited)...odds are it will be cold or anomalously cold a short distance to the south of that region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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