snowlover2 Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 SPC just issued a moderate risk for most of the southern half of MN and into western WI for tomorrow. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR FAR SERN ND...NERN SD MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MN...AND PART OF WEST CENTRAL/NWRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE DAKOTAS EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST... ..SUMMARY SEVERE STORMS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...SOME WITH SPEEDS TO HURRICANE-FORCE...SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HOWEVER...A TORNADO THREAT AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..SYNOPSIS A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NM THROUGH DAY 2...WITH SOME HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI AS THE NERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE BUILDS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...OF GREATER SIGNIFICANCE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY MORNING IS MODELS AGREEING WITH THE TIMING OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EWD WITHIN THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WLYS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER CNTRL SD MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER INTO NRN MN. A WIND SHIFT WILL TRAIL WWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO INVOF THE MT/WY BORDER...WHERE A LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITY IS EXPECTED. A 40-45 KT SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO NRN IA/SRN MN MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ..UPPER MIDWEST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS EWD TO WRN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING /MLCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J PER KG/ AND THE MODEL AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS FROM MONDAY EVENING TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERE WIND GUSTS...SOME AT HURRICANE-FORCE...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN SD...SERN ND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MN INTO WRN WI RESULTING IN AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR THIS REGION. THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE INITIAL DAY 2 ISSUANCE...WITH CONTINUED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT YIELDING INCREASINGLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH AN EML CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS ERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S AS MEAN MIXING RATIOS APPROACH 18-20 G/KG. WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-9.0 DEG C/KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD DEVELOP. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO ND/NRN SD MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX OF SCATTERED ELEVATED AND SURFACE-BASED STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STRONGER MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES... SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELLS/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS SUPPORTING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS. A CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR MLCIN BEING MINIMIZED NEAR THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND ADJACENT WARM SECTOR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 90S. THUS...AN AMALGAMATION OF UPDRAFTS SHOULD YIELD A DEEPENING COLD POOL...WITH AN UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS --- PRODUCING SVR WIND GUSTS --- APPEARING TO BE MORE LIKELY THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN AND WRN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ..PETERS.. 07/20/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Looking forward to getting some nice pics and video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised if there's a slight risk for the 22nd, although given convective debris and potential capping concerns, it might be pretty conditional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Moderate risk area pulled pretty far to the NW and decreased in size. MSP now just in the slight risk. I dig the tiny Milwaukee/Chicago slight risk area D2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Moderate risk area pulled pretty far to the NW and decreased in size. MSP now just in the slight risk. I dig the tiny Milwaukee/Chicago slight risk area D2. Yeah, that's one of the smaller Day 2 risks I remember seeing issued, although it does cover a large population center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 suspect the cap holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 suspect the cap holds It might, at least for most of the day. 700 mb temps of 12-14C doesn't inspire confidence in widespread convective activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 0z 4km NAM breaks out discrete convection across nrn IL/SE WI between 0-3z as does the op NAM but looks more widespread. Will be interesting to watch if we do get CI and how long it holds off. With extreme instability/moisture and maybe 35kts of shear. Who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 0z 4km NAM breaks out discrete convection across nrn IL/SE WI between 0-3z as does the op NAM but looks more widespread. Will be interesting to watch if we do get CI and how long it holds off. With extreme instability/moisture and maybe 35kts of shear. Who knows Yeah I'm hoping I can get out and shoot some lightning tomorrow night, but not sure if we'll see convection unzip this far southwest along the CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Fairly large slight risk area on the new day 1 outlook. A lot bigger than the old day 2 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 looks like convection should stay well southwest of the area tonight with at most weak/isolated cells firing over the immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 debris should hold temps/dews in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 debris should hold temps/dews in check Doesn't look like it. Convective debris is south of the QC...and is fading as it drifts SE. Pre-frontal clouds is what we'll have to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Clear skies, and bright sunshine. Currently 84 here with a Dew Point of 69. Wind is SSW @ 8 with gusts to about 20 right now. Feels muggy out there, only saving grace is the breeze. Getting new windows put in today (nice landlord have I ) so, the AC is off until they finish, which should be in about an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Nice pooling of DP's along/ahead of the front. DP of 81 now at TVK. Will be interesting to see if that activity between DSM and DVN tries to further develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Turning out to be a rather muggy summer day. Temp: 88 Humidity: 62% Dew Point: 73 Wind: SSW@10. Heat Index: 96. The only saving grace outside is the breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 New outlook sounds a bit pessimistic DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS/MO INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT REGIONS... ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL OREGON ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS REGION...AND MORE ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ..KS/MO INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MI REGION LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE AT BEST. WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN IA...THEY HAVE STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY/ORGANIZE AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS OVER THE REGION...DUE IN PART TO EARLIER CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE IA/MO/IL TRI-STATE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM SE WI INTO KS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IF THEY CAN BREACH THE CAP. BUT THE GREATER THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF KS/MO/IL...AS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z NSSL-WRF. ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND POSE MAINLY A HAIL THREAT. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN TRIMMED ON THE NORTH AND WESTERN EDGES AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IL INTO IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 yeah, this has been a non-starter for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 This is why I turned my sprinkler system on Sunday.... It was looking grim for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 I agree the rain chances here look grim, but the HI forecasts are verifying. Currently 91/79 imby. Feels like 108. Toasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Some storms are finally starting to go up over Lake Michigan and eastern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...SERN WI THROUGH WRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 222254Z - 230100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM SERN WI THROUGH WRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NCNTRL LAKE MI SWWD INTO SERN WI. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE VERY UNSTABLE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES AT BASE OF AN EML HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH MUCH OF WARM SECTOR WHICH...IN ADDITION TO APPARENT MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SUGGESTS STORMS MIGHT STRUGGLE AS THEY TRY TO DEVELOP SEWD...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. NEVERTHELESS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXISTS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 cold front about to catch that other boundary in southern wisco....perhaps some additional lift...interaction should be interesting either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 T'storms have been trying to get going west of Lake Michigan in the past few minutes. A decent core popped up over Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 T'storms have been trying to get going west of Lake Michigan in the past few minutes. A decent core popped up over Milwaukee. They've been trying for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 They've been trying for a while now. The storm approaching GRR looks like it's past the "trying" state now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 The storm approaching GRR looks like it's past the "trying" state now. True, but that's about the only "impressive" area along the front. The storms in Northern Lower MI appear to be cycling downward right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 True, but that's about the only "impressive" area along the front. The storms in Northern Lower MI appear to be cycling downward right now. They look like they've cycled back up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Had a light rain shower from a decaying high-based storm a bit ago, but that atomic cap has prevented just about all convection. Some of these mesoscale model members have a ridiculous tendency to forecast copious convection when capping is present. 14C at 700mb is about as strong as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Storm moving into Kane county with tops to 50kft now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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