15 of the Last 18 months with Below Normal Temps in the NW Philly Burbs

[ChescoWx]

The global warming….climate change....er…climate disruption continues here in the NW Philly burbs!

Here in the NW Philadelphia suburbs we have seen 15 of the last 18 months finish with below normal monthly departures. So far here in July we are at 2.2 degrees below normal

In addition to the chill….we are also at 12.36” above normal in precipitation to date – some of this due to our 80” of 2013/14 seasonal snowfall but the wet and cool pattern has continued unabated since last fall.

Not surprisingly we have not yet seen a 90+ day here in the burbs above 600 ft….we may take a run at it later this week with the coming “heat wave” but I am not holding my breath!

 

[wederwarrior]

I'll bite...

Have you viewed world temp maps during the same time period?

[AvantHiatus]

I'll bite...

Have you viewed world temp maps during the same time period?

[ChescoWx]

good stuff for what the base period depicts.....always love those maps!

I'll bite...
Have you viewed world temp maps during the same time period?

[wederwarrior]

So, do you see more blue or red on that map?

That is only June, and all the other months here and then show the same signature color. I would say one outnumbers the other...

But that's like, my opinion...and everyone has one.

But opinion and data driven facts/trends are a little different.

[ChescoWx]

Agree for those that see that map as fact - looks good for GW believers! Maybe they are right?? But I for one am not as sure as others - I have more faith that our earth has found a way to balance things out over the years we have been around. Just not enough years of true valid temperature readings and analysis to make it a fact. 

I guess in my mind for anything to be a fact means that it is indisputable (earth is round - yes)...this climate debate is clearly not one of them hence the article below calling into question some stats. Unfortunately not all see facts the same....that does not make me a bad person for being a "climate denier" I am sort of like an agnostic vs.an atheist - I hope my climate denial does not offend anyone....as their belief in climate change does not offend me. Opinions are welcome.  

http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=3149

[JSchwake28]

Chesco, what data are you using as 'normal'?? Every official station nearby (Reading, Allentown, Harrisburg, Philly, Trenton, etc.) are above normal for the month. Not criticizing or anything I just have a hunch the correct comparisons aren't being made.

[wederwarrior]

Hey ok. Nobody called you a bad guy...

Everyone is entitled his/her opinion,

You like the phillies, and I believe that they are great also. Fact is, this team isn't that great.

But with the usage of words like faith and believe, it is going into an opinion. Someone's interpretation. Facts are solid. Fact is a fact.

[hazwoper]

Chesco, what data are you using as 'normal'?? Every official station nearby (Reading, Allentown, Harrisburg, Philly, Trenton, etc.) are above normal for the month. Not criticizing or anything I just have a hunch the correct comparisons aren't being made.

He is using his home station as the starting point for "normal" for the "NW Philadelphis suburbs".  What station are you comparing your temps to show it has been below normal???

 

chesco, perhaps you should place this stuff in the climate change section? 

[ChescoWx]

He is using his home station as the starting point for "normal" for the "NW Philadelphis suburbs".  What station are you comparing your temps to show it has been below normal???

 

chesco, perhaps you should place this stuff in the climate change section? 

I am using Coatesville W as my normal (for stations above 650 ft in the NW Philly area) unfortunately the climate base only goes back to 1983 at that elevation although I use that station with history back to 1894 for records etc.

[ChescoWx]

Facts must be based on "solid" indisputable evidence....which unfortunately we do not have today.....now 300 years from now with reliable thermometers in existence for multiple centuries we might be able to draw factual conclusions.....today - not so much

Hey ok. Nobody called you a bad guy...
Everyone is entitled his/her opinion,
You like the phillies, and I believe that they are great also. Fact is, this team isn't that great.

But with the usage of words like faith and believe, it is going into an opinion. Someone's interpretation. Facts are solid. Fact is a fact.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

hmmm...an early Fall ?

 

I've got several healthy trees out here that are starting to shed their leaves much earlier than expected.   Many days during the last month or so, highs have been in the 60's to low 70's....and lows in the 40's to low 50's.

 

This would also kind of indicate that an extended period of cooler temperatures is more important than the days getting shorter.  (for leaves to fall) 

 

An interesting explanation :

 

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=114288700

 

Around this time of year in the Northern Hemisphere, as the days grow shorter and colder, those changes trigger a hormone in leaf-dropping trees that sends a chemical message to every leaf that says, in essence, "Time to go! Let's part company!"

 

Once the message is received, says Raven, little cells appear at the place where the leaf stem meets the branch. They are called "abscission" cells. They have the same root as the word scissors, meaning they are designed, like scissors, to make a cut.

 

 

 

cool image showing the process of these scissor type hormonal changes in leaves :

[DarthDoppler]

That is interesting Bacon.  We are not as cool here, but I have seen the sumac trees are turning a bit earlier than normal.  (they turn way earlier than anything else around here.)

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

That is interesting Bacon.  We are not as cool here, but I have seen the sumac trees are turning a bit earlier than normal.  (they turn way earlier than anything else around here.)

 

 

It could just be a co-incidence, but will keep an eye out....especially if more trees follow, before even September ? 

 

None of the leaves have turned color yet ...but the color changing process could work in a different, longer duration phase of slowly cooling temperatures.     Where-as the leaves falling , may be the result of more abrupt, quicker changes.   

 

At first glance, 60's and 70's don't seem too extreme.   But as high temperatures in July , they kinda are.  

[DarthDoppler]

It could just be a co-incidence, but will keep an eye out....especially if more trees follow, before even September ? 

 

None of the leaves have turned color yet ...but the color changing process could work in a different, longer duration phase of slowly cooling temperatures.     Where-as the leaves falling , may be the result of more abrupt, quicker changes.   

 

At first glance, 60's and 70's don't seem too extreme.   But as high temperatures in July , they kinda are.  

Well these sumacs usually change in August anyway, they are just slightly early this year.  I do think they may be the invasive species kind of sumac.  (they are small trees, you don't even have them up your way)

[mcwx]

Are you sure it's the temps and not some kind of stress like a long period of dry conditions? My understanding is it's the length of the night that starts the whole change process and temps affect the intensity of the color. 

Anyway, I'm no expert. Poison Ivy and Virginia Creeper are usually the first to start changing in the fall in my area. Creeper turns a real vibrant red color.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

first time ever even hearing of Virginia Creeper.       Looks similar to Ivy at first glance.

 

It's still early and only really noticed it from around 3 healthy trees so far. (spread out)  Today during some gusts, they were coming down pretty good.  

 

1 thing most of us can agree on = the unusually cool pattern to continue.     GFS long range shows a winter type Low redeveloping near the Delmarva.   

 

The awkwardness continues...

[ChescoWx]

The beautiful stretch of weather has been most welcome. So far for the first 8 days of August we are averaging 5.2 degrees below normal here in NW Chesco. Wxsim shows highs no higher than 75 by week's end - with some heavy rain on Tuesday AM. It appears likely we will not hit 90 degrees here for the entire Summer - I will go back and check but believe this is the first time that has happened here since the summer of 2004!

[zenmsav6810]

I was at the Delaware Shore this weekend and saw a widespread leave color change to bright red. I always thought of this leaf changing color in mid-late September after about 6 or 7 years of tracking it. 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

I was at the Delaware Shore this weekend and saw a widespread leave color change to bright red. I always thought of this leaf changing color in mid-late September after about 6 or 7 years of tracking it. 

 

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see media reports soon of an Early Fall this year. 

 

Just mowed the lawn a couple days ago.....and uhhh....yeah -   

 

(there were 0 leaves beforehand)

[zenmsav6810]

I've been find the weather very September like lately. 

Wouldn't be surprised to see media reports soon of an Early Fall this year. 

 

Just mowed the lawn a couple days ago.....and uhhh....yeah -   

 

(there were 0 leaves beforehand)

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

as expected...the first article :

 

http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2014/08/15/experts-cold-summer-leads-to-changing-leaves-in-august/

 

Experts: Record Cold Summer Leads To Changing Leaves In August

PITTSBURGH (KDKA)- Pittsburgh is dealing with one of the coldest summers in history, and it’s having an effect on the trees.

Friday morning temperatures fell into the 40s in Western Pennsylvania.

Meteorologists say these cold temperatures are leading to trees changing colors in the middle of August.

[ChescoWx]

September finished up at 1.2 below normal here in the NW Philly burbs some interesting stats:

• September 2014 Avg. High 72.3 Low 56.5 (64.4) (normals are 77.0 and 54.2 (65.6))
• Rainfall September 1.80" or 2.15" below normal
• YTD Rain at 45.83" which is +10.14" above normal
• Every month so far in 2014 has seen below normal in temps
• Since January 2013 - 16 of the last 21 months have been below normal
• There were Zero 90+ days this year - 2nd time (2004) since I have been at this location

[BucksCO_PA]

 

September finished up at 1.2 below normal here in the NW Philly burbs some interesting stats:

• September 2014 Avg. High 72.3 Low 56.5 (64.4) (normals are 77.0 and 54.2 (65.6))
• Rainfall September 1.80" or 2.15" below normal
• YTD Rain at 45.83" which is +10.14" above normal
• Every month so far in 2014 has seen below normal in temps
• Since January 2013 - 16 of the last 21 months have been below normal
• There were Zero 90+ days this year - 2nd time (2004) since I have been at this location

 

 

definitely interesting - needless to say you're location is an island of cool & in a sea of SEPT warmth

[ChescoWx]

Looks like areas above 650ft were pretty consistent. I just looked at KMQS September was avg high of 73 low 57 almost spot on with my obs.

 

definitely interesting - needless to say you're location is an island of cool & in a sea of SEPT warmth

[DarthDoppler]

Looks like areas above 650ft were pretty consistent. I just looked at KMQS September was avg high of 73 low 57 almost spot on with my obs.

I work at around 400-450 feet in the Lehigh Valley.  When I get home at 900 feet just to the south of it I often find 3-4 degree cooler readings.  So far the difference in the day has been greater than in the mornings.....often times I'm just as cold in the morning as the valley anyway.

[NEchestercountydude]

Hey Chescopawxman, do you have snow totals for each individual event from last winter? I live about 10-15 miles from you and would like to compare. Thanks!

[ChescoWx]

Hey Chescopawxman, do you have snow totals for each individual event from last winter? I live about 10-15 miles from you and would like to compare. Thanks!

 

Hope this helps see below

 

80.1" total - daily totals:

 

December 2013: 12/8 (3.8"); 12/10 (4.0"); 12/14 (4.0"); 12/17 (1.5"); 12/26 (1.8") = total of 15.1"

January 2014: 1/2 (5.3"); 1/3 (2.7"); 1/10 (1.3"); 1/21 (10.0"); 1/25 (2.0"); 1/29 (0.3") = total of 21.6"

February 2014: 2/3 (10.0"); 2/9 (2.8"); 2/12 (0.3"); 2/13 (18.0"); 2/14 (1.5"); 2/15 (2.3"); 2/18 (2.5"); 2/26 (1.5") = total of 39.4"

March 2014: 3/3 (0.9"); 3/17 (1.8"); 3/25 (1.3") = total of 4.0"

[NEchestercountydude]

Hope this helps see below

 

80.1" total - daily totals:

 

December 2013: 12/8 (3.8"); 12/10 (4.0"); 12/14 (4.0"); 12/17 (1.5"); 12/26 (1.8") = total of 15.1"

January 2014: 1/2 (5.3"); 1/3 (2.7"); 1/10 (1.3"); 1/21 (10.0"); 1/25 (2.0"); 1/29 (0.3") = total of 21.6"

February 2014: 2/3 (10.0"); 2/9 (2.8"); 2/12 (0.3"); 2/13 (18.0"); 2/14 (1.5"); 2/15 (2.3"); 2/18 (2.5"); 2/26 (1.5") = total of 39.4"

March 2014: 3/3 (0.9"); 3/17 (1.8"); 3/25 (1.3") = total of 4.0"

 

That does indeed thanks.

[ChescoWx]

Looks like we have a shot at our first above normal month here in the NW Philly burbs of the entire year!

Through today we are +1.3 above normal with some normal to above days before closing the month out a bit below normal. Looks like we should enjoy the beautiful autmnal weather while we can.....looks like another colder and snowier winter than normal on the way but not like last year!