moneypitmike Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Look like a lousy day today for a hike in the Whites. I'll have to come up with a 'plan B' and save that for tomorrow. At least I have some good distance views from the deck to watch any storms that develop as they move away (the deck faces NE). 68.4/68 at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Some of the mesos have 2 rounds of storms in some areas..A first round of discrete almost super cells..and then the main , damaging line comes thru between 7:00 and 10:00pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 What happened to NH? Maybe something near the coast but I'm thinking SE SNE or eastern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Maybe something near the coast but I'm thinking SE SNE or eastern Maine. Booooooo..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 It's going to be a big day..A big .big day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Good disco Wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Good disco Wiz. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Interesting to note all the SE winds across several locations...have to watch and see if they end up turning more southerly or southwesterly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 0-6km shear values currently are stronger than forecasted and these values have been increasing west to east over the past several hours although this eastward progression may come to a halt shortly and could even weaken slightly. It's the 0-8km shear values which are really lagging behind the cold front...to get a really awesome nicely structured and organized squall line you would want 25-35+ knots of 0-8km shear but it's pretty meh. If 0-8km shear was stronger we would probably see quite the vicious squall line today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Some of the mesos have 2 rounds of storms in some areas..A first round of discrete almost super cells..and then the main , damaging line comes thru between 7:00 and 10:00pm The HRRR actually does seem to have more in the way of discrete...well probably more of a broken line but composed of discrete cells. Not really sure what to make of it but the mesos do continue to show elevated helicity values so an isolated tornado certainly is possible anywhere...especially if we get those cape values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Wiz, I'm really liking the low-level wind profiles. Nicely backed right up the valley. Even 150 at BAF with a 72 dew-point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 The HRRR actually does seem to have more in the way of discrete...well probably more of a broken line but composed of discrete cells. Not really sure what to make of it but the mesos do continue to show elevated helicity values so an isolated tornado certainly is possible anywhere...especially if we get those cape values. There's gonna be scattered discrete storms between about 1-3and then the massive squall line is late pm into evening..All the mesos show that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Wiz, I'm really liking the low-level wind profiles. Nicely backed right up the valley. Even 150 at BAF with a 72 dew-point. Yeah it's really intriguing to see this early on...just a matter of if these profiles sustain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 There's gonna be scattered discrete storms between about 1-3and then the massive squall line is late pm into evening..All the mesos show that scenario I really like your area (NE CT) up through interior NE MA...that zone could be a prime spot for some of the stronger activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 The new HRRR says "What convection?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 The new HRRR says "What convection?" 10z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 There's gonna be scattered discrete storms between about 1-3and then the massive squall line is late pm into evening..All the mesos show that scenarioNo they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 No they don't. HRRR has it..The RPM I saw had it also..You're already on record as saying today is meh..with little severe..so no going back now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Yes they do. HRRr has it..The RPM I saw had it also Nope. Try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 When I looked at the lapse rates earlier I was quite happy, however, 500mb temps have actually warmed some over the past few hours and the 6-6.5 C/KM lapse rates that were in place from NY through central/northern New England are gone. They could resteepen some as the front/trough approach and temps cool again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 10z? 11z.......I paid for a weatherbell account, so it comes in a bit early. Really does not have much until near 00z. Just a couple of cells near the pike around 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 11z.......I paid for a weatherbell account, so it comes in a bit early. Really does not have much until near 00z. Just a couple of cells near the pike around 21z. Wow...that is really interesting. That's quite a turn around from the previous runs. I wonder what the cause is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Here's HRRR at 3:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 The HRRR doesn't seem to be as robust with cape as other guidance is. In fact, neither is the RAP. I wonder if this is a reason as to why these runs aren't as widespread with convection? I don't see why we should see SBcape values approach 2500 with MLcape values of 1500-2000 and given those values that would off-set the more modest 0-6km shear we have and should compensate and really help updraft momentum...that's the only reason why I'm more excited is b/c we will have large cape values. If those models are underplaying that than I would think they are underplaying convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I keep clicking refresh waiting for the 12z observed soundings to come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I wouldn't worry and over-analyze every HRRR run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 That is one unstable sounding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Sun is out today has that feel to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I'm not sure if we're looking at the same data, but the 11z HRRR from College of DuPage shows a line of storms from NYC to southwestern Maine by 18z/2 p.m., right about along I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Sun is out today has that feel to itSun in and out of fast moving clouds here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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