CT Rain Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 The shear starts off pretty meh but it does increase later on in the afternoon...it's just a question of how much does it lag behind the front...the GFS increases 0-6 shear upwards of 30 knots between 21z-0z. Seems like it's too little too late. Getting shear to increase by 00z... isn't going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 It's going to be big. A big, big day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 5, 2014 Author Share Posted September 5, 2014 I'm not sure I buy this being "your typical nw of the area threat". Timing argues against that. Favors SNE for timing rather than E NY (alb area) western ma or nw ct. That's enough to perk my interest. Combine that with high cape/instability, solid source of lift, this humidity... Tomorrow will likely feature a few severe storms affecting our area. Doesn't look like your typical 'fizzle past ORH'. I don't think we are facing a severe outbreak or historical day by any means, but a highly active thunderstorm day across much of the area with a solid threat of severe for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Doesn't look like your typical 'fizzle past ORH'. I don't think we are facing a severe outbreak or historical day by any means, but a highly active thunderstorm day across much of the area with a solid threat of severe for many. This was the point I was trying to make before. It doesn't appear like the low/levels will be tainted and in fact we may be looking at some sneaky 90 degree temps trying to pop. One aspect of timing that may be a limiting factor will be loss of daytime heating, so we'll see how fast the line moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Seems like it's too little too late. Getting shear to increase by 00z... isn't going to cut it. I agree,,,we definitely want the shear to increase earlier. The shear though isn't going to be detrimental to convection tomorrow...it would just hamper what could be a more active day in terms of severe weather. It looks like the line would be moving through here after 21z or so...this is also the time when the GFS begins to increase the shear so it's still close enough to where it's possibility...that is of course if the GFS is correct...the NAM is much. much slower with the shear as it has it lag further behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 5, 2014 Author Share Posted September 5, 2014 I agree,,,we definitely want the shear to increase earlier. The shear though isn't going to be detrimental to convection tomorrow...it would just hamper what could be a more active day in terms of severe weather. It looks like the line would be moving through here after 21z or so...this is also the time when the GFS begins to increase the shear so it's still close enough to where it's possibility...that is of course if the GFS is correct...the NAM is much. much slower with the shear as it has it lag further behind the front. Wind fields pretty much increase slightly as the day goes on at all levels on euro. Nothing crazy impressive though. Looks like wind fields are best over eastern half of sne? Correct me if I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Wind fields pretty much increase slightly as the day goes on at all levels on euro. Nothing crazy impressive though. Looks like wind fields are best over eastern half of sne? Correct me if I'm wrong Looking at the 0z euro it had 500mb winds of 30k-35 knots into New England as early as 18z tomorrow...Euro does have a bit more impressive LLJ across eastern CT/RI/eastern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Looking at the 0z euro it had 500mb winds of 30k-35 knots into New England as early as 18z tomorrow...Euro does have a bit more impressive LLJ across eastern CT/RI/eastern MA (for me, not you) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 5, 2014 Author Share Posted September 5, 2014 Clouds a problem in some locales tomorrow? NAM and euro both have light precip in the morning hours over areas of SNE. It then clears out in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 5, 2014 Author Share Posted September 5, 2014 This was the point I was trying to make before. It doesn't appear like the low/levels will be tainted and in fact we may be looking at some sneaky 90 degree temps trying to pop. One aspect of timing that may be a limiting factor will be loss of daytime heating, so we'll see how fast the line moves. I think your typical areas might miss out on their severe chances while just east may cash in. best upper level support is clearly further north you go, while instability is further south and east ahead of that wind shift and unfavorable timing of the front. Also you don't want to be too close to the south coast as that will inhibit on that wind direction. Somewhere in between would be an area from Hartford north and east to ORH and up into interior northeast massachusetts. Maybe even into Boston if the storms can maintain strength. Tomorrow I would want to be somewhere around route 2 or south to ORH.. east to 495 belt and up 495 north heading towards NH border. Could be sneaky spots near interior SE Ma too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Nice inverted V profile tomorrow should lead to numerous damaging wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 The 18z NAM has a pretty significant surge of theta-e air ahead of the cold front tomorrow which could lead to some dewpoint pooling ahead of the front...maybe dews increasing to 72-74? NAM shows possibility of MLcape values exceeding 2000 J/KG. The NAM also continues to slowly push the timing of the front back which is good b/c it allows for the better shear values to work in...regardless with those Cape values 20-25 knots of shear is "enough". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 5, 2014 Author Share Posted September 5, 2014 18z nam, over 3k cape. highest where I drew the circle on my map a couple posts ago. As wiz said, looks absolutely miserable. Dews in low 70's and temps near 90. Certainly looks like last oppressive day of 2014 with the way long range is shaping up. If those cape values wiz mentioned shape up, gonna be a lightshow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 I like the Lakes Region in NH for timing and climo. Going to be too early up here in the northern Greens, but the timing looks great for the southern Greens and Berks over towards the NH Lakes Region. That axis has done well this summer too, so hard to bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 RPM crushes tomorrow @capecodweather: Some hi-res models with a strong line of storms cutting thru #SNE Saturday PM…weakens some before reaching #CapeCod http://t.co/DOflUnETzO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 RPM crushes tomorrow @capecodweather: Some hi-res models with a strong line of storms cutting thru #SNE Saturday PM…weakens some before reaching #CapeCod http://t.co/DOflUnETzO like, safe in GON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I think your typical areas might miss out on their severe chances while just east may cash in. best upper level support is clearly further north you go, while instability is further south and east ahead of that wind shift and unfavorable timing of the front. Also you don't want to be too close to the south coast as that will inhibit on that wind direction. Somewhere in between would be an area from Hartford north and east to ORH and up into interior northeast massachusetts. Maybe even into Boston if the storms can maintain strength. Tomorrow I would want to be somewhere around route 2 or south to ORH.. east to 495 belt and up 495 north heading towards NH border. Could be sneaky spots near interior SE Ma too? This I would agree with if you are strictly going off the convective parameters and were looking to get nailed by an advancing squall line. But I am considering making a drive to near Bennington (possibly further west) with the hopes of getting in on some initial discreet stuff before the whole show goes linear. Mainly because I have the weekends off now and because I am bored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 This I would agree with if you are strictly going off the convective parameters and were looking to get nailed by an advancing squall line. But I am considering making a drive to near Bennington (possibly further west) with the hopes of getting in on some initial discreet stuff before the whole show goes linear. Mainly because I have the weekends off now and because I am bored. hey chris, i was mainly focusing on sne to be honest. Im guilty. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Dew up to 71 here starting to set the stage for some fun tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 hey chris, i was mainly focusing on sne to be honest. Im guilty. Lol I don't blame ya. SNE is the only place that matters. We all know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 NAM went in the direction of shear being slightly better for tomorrow...also the NAM looks very good for interior NE MA I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 00z NAM definitely wet up here in NNE. Severe chances definitely better to the south in SNE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 NAM went in the direction of shear being slightly better for tomorrow...also the NAM looks very good for interior NE MA I think NAM actually shows some locally backed southerly winds by 00z across the central Connecticut valleys, but that might be too little too late. The game for any more intense discrete cells is likely early on before storm mode gets messy and we see one or more lines off storms plow through SNE. The NAM also shows some channeling low-level flow in the mid-Hudson Valley to Albany region around early afternoon. If there was a narrow window for a few supercells, I would tend to think it would be early to mid-afternoon, somewhere between the Hudson Valley and western Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 SPC outlines 2% TOR from northwest Mass. up into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 NAM actually shows some locally backed southerly winds by 00z across the central Connecticut valleys, but that might be too little too late. The game for any more intense discrete cells is likely early on before storm mode gets messy and we see one or more lines off storms plow through SNE. The NAM also shows some channeling low-level flow in the mid-Hudson Valley to Albany region around early afternoon. If there was a narrow window for a few supercells, I would tend to think it would be early to mid-afternoon, somewhere between the Hudson Valley and western Massachusetts. Certainly a possibility...especially with such high Cape values Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Well over-looking things this AM, today is shaping up to be quite an active day across southern New England. I also think we will end up seeing a decent amount of wind damage reports (to put into context something that would verify high-end slight) and several large hail reports as well. While shear could certainly be stronger it will be more than adequate given the very strong instability parameters we will have in place. MLcape values should approach 2000 J/KG this afternoon which is quite impressive. Activity will begin firing in the late morning hours and should quickly consolidate into a line segment with a few bowing structures...since there isn't a ton of difference between the speed of the llvl and mlvl wind fields it won't be a massive bowing squall line but more several smaller bowing structures. We do have to watch the llvl wind fields, especially late afternoon as activity progresses through central MA into NH and NE MA. A spike in the llvl jet will allow for an increase in helicity so if there are any discrete cells ahead of the main line have to watch for rotation...even have to watch for this embedded within the squall line. Flash flooding will be a concern as well in the typical flood prone and poor drainage areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 It's going to be a big day..A big .big day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 It's going to be a big day..A big .big day Decent instability A spin up or 2 My over/under is 2 EF0's in SNE or Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Decent instability A spin up or 2 My over/under is 2 EF0's in SNE or Maine I definitely wouldn't rule out a tornado in northern New England...especially Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Decent instability A spin up or 2 My over/under is 2 EF0's in SNE or Maine What happened to NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.