Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Prepare for the worst, hope for the bestThe worst is the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 I'm going to go out on a limb & assume my good friend the marine layer is going to keep me from joining the fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 The worst is the best Night of the Twister's reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 I'm going to go out on a limb & assume my good friend the marine layer is going to keep me from joining the fun? marine layer really may not be a big factor here. The biggest issue would be storms being too far removed from better upper support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 I'm going to go out on a limb & assume my good friend the marine layer is going to keep me from joining the fun?hopefully Jimmy Fund weekend tourney in GON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 This time of yr with torched SST marine layer non factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 This time of yr with torched SST marine layer non factor Well with easterly winds it might be given ssts in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Well with easterly winds it might be given ssts in the 60s.Yeah but that brings those warm muggy 60's all the way in. East flow this time of yr is nice and sticky generally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Lol, SST are low 60's here, Marine layer. Ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 You can have HP to the north and have temps easily in the low 50s inland. That will not be the case Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 I live in the cell graveyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Appears to be a big day shaping up region wide tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Meh. Of course you'd say that.Your're jaded after 20 misses Lots of good parameters lining up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Of course you'd say that.Your're jaded after 20 misses Lots of good parameters lining up tomorrow. You've said this about 15 times this summer. Looks like your token Berks and NNE deal. Probably a couple of stronger storms near ORH and perhaps you, but overall nothing we haven't seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 You've said this about 15 times this summer. Looks like your token Berks and NNE deal. Probably a couple of stronger storms near ORH and perhaps you, but overall nothing we haven't seen before. SPC with slight risk. Hope you get in on the action. if we miss storms tomorrow..all rains next week miss south..Then things really get dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Wiz should like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 If you get excited by a squall line with some marginally severe wind gusts, then maybe tomorrow will get your attention. Otherwise it's not a particularly impressive setup. Mid-level lapse rates look meh and the shear pattern is fairly unidirectional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 It's New England, not Iowa. It's a good setup for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Meh meh here, meh meh there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Sounds like another inch for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Sounds like BBQ cancel to me, Could do without it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Hey guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Hard bangs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Gonna be a good day as Cube once said CIPS Analog Guidance @CIPSAnalogs 2h Similar historical patterns to Sat model fcst suggest organized svr threat is possible from DC to Boston. pic.twitter.com/Y8d8mN4kEC Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Tomorrow will be quite an active day convectively across southern New England with very favorable timing. The question now is what are we looking at in terms of strong to severe t'storm potential? First off, we will see a few t'storms become strong to severe which will pose a threat for strong to damaging winds and large hail. Flash flooding will be an issue as well. Tomorrow does have the POTENTIAL to be a more active day in terms of severe weather...not saying outbreak but we could see our share of severe weather reports. The main question is how much does the stronger shear values lag behind the front? The NAM and GFS do differ with the GFS being more aggressive bringing in 30-40 knots at 500mb between 18z and 21z, which coincides with the timing of the front. If these values do arrive with the convection or just prior this will increase the threat of damaging winds as well as large hail. Another big question is what do we see happen with the LLJ? The NAM has been much more bullish with developing a rather strong LLJ (upwards of 35-40 knots) while the GFS is around 20-25 knots. The NAM does have a tendency to overplay the LLJ, however, we should see an increase regardless as we move towards the evening hours when typically the LLJ does intensify...this will have to be watched closely b/c if the LLJ does intensify this would increase the severe threat and also introduce the possibility of enhanced rotation. Instability should not be too much of a concern tomorrow and we should see moderate instability develop. High surface dewpoints/low level moisture (dews near 70F) and modest mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/KM) under the presence of strong surface heating will yield to SBcapes approaching 1500-2000 J/KG (perhaps upwards of 2500 J/KG if we see really strong heating), MLcape values around 1500 J/KG (perhaps near 2000 J/KG), and LI values near -6C. Ncape values should be close to 0.25 or so which do indicate we will see a fairly fat cape profile. Clouds could somewhat hamper instability but not enough to where we should have to worry. To put all this in a nut shell, tomorrow will be quite active with numerous showers and t'storms with a few becoming strong to severe, however, there is a possibility of a more active severe weather event if a few things can align better but this will have to be assessed in the AM...so perhaps we could see high end slight criteria verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 The analog data does point toward a column of fairly numerous severe wind reports. I think this will be a case where we actually get good destabilization during the day and see little to no marine influence. (Flow is largely W to SW) Any storms that do fire may easily make it to the I-84 corridor and hold their act together with decent speed shear. High res NAM shows a fairly strong line of storms firing from eastern New York into central New England and dropping southeast. As Wiz eluded to, if we can get some localized low-level turning, that may possibly enhance the threat. I'd have to say a high end SLGT wind threat is entirely possible, but hail and tornado threats appear marginal at best. Not a great setup, but a lot of us should see some bangers tomorrow PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 The analog data does point toward a column of fairly numerous severe wind reports. I think this will be a case where we actually get good destabilization during the day and see little to no marine influence. (Flow is largely W to SW) Any storms that do fire may easily make it to the I-84 corridor and hold their act together with decent speed shear. High res NAM shows a fairly strong line of storms firing from eastern New York into central New England and dropping southeast. As Wiz eluded to, if we can get some localized low-level turning, that may possibly enhance the threat. I'd have to say a high end SLGT wind threat is entirely possible, but hail and tornado threats appear marginal at best. Not a great setup, but a lot of us should see some bangers tomorrow PM. I never really looked much at vertical velocities but really want to start paying attention to that parameter more with severe but 500mb vertical velocities looked pretty decent...even 700mb. So if we can get updrafts to penetrate these levels could act to enhance updraft momentum and increase wind/hail potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Meh - 20 knots of 0-6km bulk and effective shear. Meh, meh meh. Nice EML over DTX this morning... maybe a late night banger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Meh - 20 knots of 0-6km bulk and effective shear. Meh, meh meh. Nice EML over DTX this morning... maybe a late night banger? The shear starts off pretty meh but it does increase later on in the afternoon...it's just a question of how much does it lag behind the front...the GFS increases 0-6 shear upwards of 30 knots between 21z-0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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