Professional Lurker Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 These storms going to make it here, or are they going to fizzle? Place your bets. .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 It's been really dry. I had some rain over the weekend, but it's been so few and far between.you guys in CCT have been housed, we had the two tropical storms and a great douse the other night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 3, 2014 Author Share Posted September 3, 2014 These storms going to make it here, or are they going to fizzle? Place your bets. .... fizzle on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 CT mets understand the severity @gilsimmons: Wimpy showers & dying thunder should arrive in western CT 1030pm-1115pm and may never make it to eastern CT. #weneedrain But we get dry spells just about every summer, and sooner or later, we make up the deficit. I just overseeded/re-seeded a part of my lawn, so I know how much I've been watering, and how dry it is now, but it's a bit much to worry about any long-term effects at this point, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 We had a wet July with over 7" but couldn't muster 3" in August. September is starting wet with 1.25"+ this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Right along the vt border the storms seem to be maintaining a narrow squall line. ... That's all I can hold on to. Watch that too fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Thank god I stayed up for this light rain... would have really kicked myself if I had missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Thank god I stayed up for this light rain... would have really kicked myself if I had missed it.It's heavy here, but no thunder. G'night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 No rain last night here outside Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Yet another tornado debris signature in the northeast last night... this one near Binghamton. Sadly, no warning on the storm and also no mention of the "confirmed" tornado after touchdown. Very frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I think the warning came out after? I remember seeing the debris sig even on my iphone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Yet another tornado debris signature in the northeast last night... this one near Binghamton. Sadly, no warning on the storm and also no mention of the "confirmed" tornado after touchdown. Very frustrating. That image is interesting because you see several other RhoHV drops in high signal areas. When put into context with the velocity sig I would definitely say there was a spin up tornado, but it's a decent example of why the drop isn't always a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 That image is interesting because you see several other RhoHV drops in high signal areas. When put into context with the velocity sig I would definitely say there was a spin up tornado, but it's a decent example of why the drop isn't always a slam dunk. If you loop and look at higher tilts it's easy to pick out. Those are drops are artificial but a static image doesn't tell you a whole lot. IT actually lasts for about 20 minutes or so and 5 volume scans with decent height continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I think the warning came out after? I remember seeing the debris sig even on my iphone. Yeah the warning came out about an hour later for the storm as it moved east of Binghamton. I went back and looked and saw what you were talking about... and while it was 'probably' debris based on the way it developed and fanned out CC wasn't low enough to call it a TDS imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Yeah the warning came out about an hour later for the storm as it moved east of Binghamton. I went back and looked and saw what you were talking about... and while it was 'probably' debris based on the way it developed and fanned out CC wasn't low enough to call it a TDS imo. Oh you mean the lower CC when it was actually warned? Yeah it was borderline. Given how far it was from the radar..seems like debris may have been lofted..but not a clear TDS by definition I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Oh you mean the lower CC when it was actually warned? Yeah it was borderline. Given how far it was from the radar..seems like debris may have been lofted..but not a clear TDS by definition I suppose. Yeah exactly. It's a confidence thing. You want CC below 0.8... And ideally some height continuity and ZDR near zero to boost confidence. When you have CC above. 0.8 and no clear ZDR signal I would go "no tds" in a wx coverage scenario but there's definitely a chance that CC signal was some debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I honestly wonder if this is a training issue. Are mets in this area not looking at dual pol or simply not comfortable making the call. At the very least with that reflectivity and velocity sig is was a borderline TOR call... Really no excuse for not pulling the trigger once TDS appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Severe winds damage Pico Resort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Possible big day Saturday from BOX Benjamin Sipprell @SipprellWx 1h Saturday: large hail, damaging winds, brief spin-up tornado, all possible ahead of the anticipated front. #warmsector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Saturday is a bi interesting at this range...some questions with all parameters lining up though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Not really sure what to expect at this time. Don't see much of a well defined s/w (on the GFS anyways) and it looks like the best upper level support really lags behind the cold front. 500mb looks better with respect to the winds, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Not really sure what to expect at this time. Don't see much of a well defined s/w (on the GFS anyways) and it looks like the best upper level support really lags behind the cold front. 500mb looks better with respect to the winds, however. NAM would be a good outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 NAM would be a good outbreak The only thing that NAMhas going is a very intense LLJ...at this stage it looks overdone to me, however, there is room for a LLJ of that intensity to verify but it all comes down to certain features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 4, 2014 Author Share Posted September 4, 2014 The only thing that NAMhas going is a very intense LLJ...at this stage it looks overdone to me, however, there is room for a LLJ of that intensity to verify but it all comes down to certain features. I feel like wind fields could be better, so could be shear. Looks modest at best I'm guessing from what I see on EURO. 1-2k of CAPE, so instability is there. I think better forcing and stuff is early Sunday in the overnight. Doesn't scream a severe outbreak. Looks western mass and NNE on euro with regards to timing. Meh right now at least on that model. GFS looks faster in regards to timing of front. Temps cooling aloft too. Would think 18z would be preferred for those wanting to see storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Saturday is shaping up to be a bit more interesting. 500mb wind fields seem to be progressing better and better. We should be dealing with vertical shear values around 25-35 knots or so which is adequate enough. There also appears to be a bit more defined s/w which will move through during peak heating hours as well. Mid-level lapse rates this go around shouldn't be all that bad either, perhaps on order of 6-6.5 C/KM...that's still not great but it's solid enough, especially given the fact that we will be dealing with sfc dews around 70F. This should also yield to some decent instability parameters, however, how unstable we become will depend on degree of sfc heating. Theoretically, we could see max temps into the 80's and near 90's and if we did achieve that we would be looking at some pretty hefty instability numbers, especially for September. One thing I'm a little concerned about is how quickly the low-level winds begin to turn more westerly as opposed to remaining southwesterly. This occurs as the initial s/w moves through along with what looks to be a pre-frontal trough. We don't want the winds to turn westerly too early b/c this will limit convergence. Keeping them southwesterly would also increase helicity and perhaps introduce more in the way of hail potential. All in all looking decent for a few strong to severe t'storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 4, 2014 Author Share Posted September 4, 2014 Saturday is shaping up to be a bit more interesting. 500mb wind fields seem to be progressing better and better. We should be dealing with vertical shear values around 25-35 knots or so which is adequate enough. There also appears to be a bit more defined s/w which will move through during peak heating hours as well. Mid-level lapse rates this go around shouldn't be all that bad either, perhaps on order of 6-6.5 C/KM...that's still not great but it's solid enough, especially given the fact that we will be dealing with sfc dews around 70F. This should also yield to some decent instability parameters, however, how unstable we become will depend on degree of sfc heating. Theoretically, we could see max temps into the 80's and near 90's and if we did achieve that we would be looking at some pretty hefty instability numbers, especially for September. One thing I'm a little concerned about is how quickly the low-level winds begin to turn more westerly as opposed to remaining southwesterly. This occurs as the initial s/w moves through along with what looks to be a pre-frontal trough. We don't want the winds to turn westerly too early b/c this will limit convergence. Keeping them southwesterly would also increase helicity and perhaps introduce more in the way of hail potential. All in all looking decent for a few strong to severe t'storms. Surface winds look almost nw past 18z on euro. highest instability south of pike into e ct ri and se ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Surface winds look almost nw past 18z on euro. highest instability south of pike into e ct ri and se ma. yeah looks like a boundary (pre-frontal) will slide through during early to mid afternoon. That's good in a way as we will have a focus for lift, however, it could arrive before we start seeing winds aloft amp up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 4, 2014 Author Share Posted September 4, 2014 yeah looks like a boundary (pre-frontal) will slide through during early to mid afternoon. That's good in a way as we will have a focus for lift, however, it could arrive before we start seeing winds aloft amp up a bit. Does ramp up between 18z and 0z. Maybe a higher severe chance for the eastern half for a change then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Looks like we are setting up for a damaging day for the entire 6 state region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Looks like we are setting up for a damaging day for the entire 6 state region Prepare for the worst, hope for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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