Tornadomachine Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Hoo boy, gonna be close for those south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 First few cells petering out a bit as they head E of the Berkshires. Might have to wait for the storms over Albany to get here for any good cg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Way late for this but GYX did a special 18z sounding today. Looks like the llv lapse rates modeled did in fact come to pass, and the m/l aren't bad either. Windfield isn't especially notable however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Hoo boy, gonna be close for those south of the pike. Whoa boy...gonna be close for those east of Springfield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Hoo boy, gonna be close for those south of the pike. Our storms are the ones in ENY..not the ones to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Probably another massive blowdown on the slopes that you'll find tomorrow. Another 1-3 trails lost for the season? ...no doubt some more trees came down but probably not 6 acres worth like the last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Whoa boy...gonna be close for those east of Springfield... This will end up a standard summer t-storm event for most in MA not that many were expecting more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Nice! do you have a higher resolution version? Nah, unfortunately just a spur of the moment shot with the iPhone...didn't have my good camera with me. This is the largest size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 First few cells petering out a bit as they head E of the Berkshires. Might have to wait for the storms over Albany to get here for any good cg. Yeah--the earlier thunder never amounted to anything. Pretty darn dark out there, though. 78.4/71 manky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 No warnings up out in NY. Must be a whole lotta rain and a whole lotta meh passing over AQW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Mesoscale Discussion 1448 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...ERN PA...NRN NJ...WRN CT...WRN MA...SRN VT...NH AND ERN ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432... VALID 232216Z - 232345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM SERN NY...ERN PA...NRN NJ AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT AN OVERALL DECREASE IS EXPECTED BY 00Z. DISCUSSION...EXPANSIVE SQUALL LINE FROM ERN MAINE SWWD THROUGH SERN NY AND ERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD AT 20-25 KT NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT MODEST LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ARE SERVING AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER BY 00Z WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AS STORMS MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN RENDERED LESS UNSTABLE BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER. ..DIAL.. 07/23/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I expect minimal if any tstorm imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Way late for this but GYX did a special 18z sounding today. Looks like the llv lapse rates modeled did in fact come to pass, and the m/l aren't bad either. Windfield isn't especially notable however. llvl wind field is quite meh...mlvl's pretty respectable, especially given the thermodynamic environment. Speed shear is present but not great given the weak llvl's. Definte warm layers present though throughout the column...not a big deal for up that way though given stronger forcing and lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 No one was or should be expecting severe in SNE. Just a great light show and if lucky a few close by strikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 With LIS water temp of 76? And maximized instability? Won't be much severe but a solid light show to the coast seems likely tHREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER BY 00Z WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AS STORMS MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN RENDERED LESS UNSTABLE BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 tHREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER BY 00Z WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AS STORMS MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN RENDERED LESS UNSTABLE BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER. ??? They mean severe. You seem to be of the belief SNE won't see thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I expect minimal if any tstorm imby. I'll post updates on how my rain bucket's doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Under a svr warning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 ??? They mean severe. You seem to be of the belief SNE won't see thunderstorms I've seen it many a time when they come off the Berks and pass through the valley...they dissolve. I don't see any parameters keeping them intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Under a svr warning here. Congrats....one of the lucky few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I've seen it many a time when they come off the Berks and pass through the valley...they dissolve. I don't see any parameters keeping them intact. Agree for areas further south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 The HRRR keeps MUcape values in the 1000-1500 J/KG range well into the overnight so storms could sustain and become more elevated. However, typically with nocturnal convection you would also like to have dynamical support to help maintain storms and we will lack that so I'm not sure how much the MUcapes will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I can hear some rumbles---not sure if they're from the batch hitting Charlemont or the blob sitting on Pete (which is snow btw). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Line is really coming together and congealing as it heads east in Mass and into CT..Cell entering Litchfield looks borderline severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Most of the thunder I'm hearing is from VT, though there's some to the west as well. Looks like the best stuff in Mass will be passing to my south. Radar suggests I'll get nicked, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 That Litchfield storm has some strong winds with it..shows up clearly ..Wonder if it gets warned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Line is really coming together and congealing as it heads east in Mass and into CT..Cell entering Litchfield looks borderline severe Kevin...I wish that they'll hold together, but I'm not having much hope.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Kevin...I wish that they'll hold together, but I'm not having much hope....Hope so@ericfisher: Still plenty of instability to keep feeding these storms as they move east, so should make it into Manchester/Worcester areas this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 I expect minimal if any tstorm imby.not our setup for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 VERY dark, very little in the way of thunder. Rain on the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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