scoob40 Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 RPM has nice line of strong to severe storms moving thru the region between about 6:00pm and 9:0ppm tonight SPC concurs somewhat. ..nrn Virginia/Maryland to interior southern New England this afternoon... Stronger surface heating and modest destabilization is expected along the east edge of the thicker clouds today from Virginia/Maryland to interior southern New England. A belt of stronger low-midlevel southwesterly flow /30-40 knots/ will coincide with this zone of destabilization ... support the development of a broken band of primarily multicell clusters and short line segments by early afternoon. Poor lapse rate profiles do not lend confidence to this forecast...but will maintain a low-end slight risk for a few damaging gusts based on the potential for downward momentum Transfer with heavy precipitation loading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Another 3.5" of rain for Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Another 3.5" of rain for Dendrite. Any grass that sees a good amount of sun and hasn't been watered daily currently feels like steel wool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 definitely feels like a damagey type of day. maybe today will salvage the summer for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 31, 2014 Author Share Posted August 31, 2014 Main threat today is flash flooding but I do think we may see a warning or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 I hope SNE get's something good today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 31, 2014 Author Share Posted August 31, 2014 If your along and north or nw of the pike today hires says its almost a lock for storms to roll through. Looks like majority of everyone will see measurable precip. Strongest instability is northern mass and southern new hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 31, 2014 Author Share Posted August 31, 2014 More and more I look at things, I like today. Pretty solid lock to be active, first semi exciting weather in weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Hopefully we can muster up some breaks of sun to boost up instability values. With dewpoints surging close to and perhaps just past 70F, we won't need much heating to really boost up instability values. Potential Cape though is limited by the piss poor tropical mlvl lapse rates. Shear is pretty decent and vertical shear values should increase to 35-45 knots as the afternoon goes on along with some elevated helicity values. Torrential downpours certainly main hazard here but def have to watch for a few storms producing damaging gusts...maybe even rotate as well. HRRR looks active later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 31, 2014 Author Share Posted August 31, 2014 Hopefully we can muster up some breaks of sun to boost up instability values. With dewpoints surging close to and perhaps just past 70F, we won't need much heating to really boost up instability values. Potential Cape though is limited by the piss poor tropical mlvl lapse rates. Shear is pretty decent and vertical shear values should increase to 35-45 knots as the afternoon goes on along with some elevated helicity values. Torrential downpours certainly main hazard here but def have to watch for a few storms producing damaging gusts...maybe even rotate as well. HRRR looks active later plenty of sun here in interior ne ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Some patches of blue sky in central CT right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 SPC has shifted the slight risk area to North Jersey and a section of Eastern Pa. Not much sun here at all as of 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Some overlap of decent instability/shear over the Catskills/Hudson Valley should advect east. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few marginally severe storms try to form from western CT into southwest/south-central MA later today. The tornado threat is very marginal and the hail potential is not significant either. Greatest risks appear to be heavy rainfall and perhaps some localized damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Lots of breaks in the clouds across western and central CT now...Capes increasing. If we can get enough heating to get MLcapes up to about 1000-1250 J/KG that would be enough to get a few interesting storms going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 A lot of blue sky now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 We see nothing today..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Watching that stuff across PA/NJ as it moves NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 plenty of sun here in interior ne ma Lots of breaks in the clouds across western and central CT now...Capes increasing. If we can get enough heating to get MLcapes up to about 1000-1250 J/KG that would be enough to get a few interesting storms going. Absolutely nothing but clouds here in GC as I watch lots of activity passing just to the NW. Maybe I can get the 7-10 split today. Just the way this season rolls. 75.9/70--there 95* days are killing me. The humidity does suck, though. Just spent three hours splitting and stacking in it. Just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 I wouldn't even rule out the threat for some hail...decent enough Cape in the -10C to -30C layer to not discount the potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 What's the timing? Seems like it is getting late in the day for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 What's the timing? Seems like it is getting late in the day for storms. Timing is late afternoon/early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Timing is late afternoon/early evening.Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Just had a splitting cell near Monticello...cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 I think we're all gonna bang hard tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 I think we're all gonna bang hard tonight Your reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 temp jumped to 81.5 in minutes here...maybe something can brew, but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 stuff finally taking off a bit...moving into an area of 40 knots of 0-6km shear so probably providing a little extra oomph...needed with piss poor lapse rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 stuff finally taking off a bit...moving into an area of 40 knots of 0-6km shear so probably providing a little extra oomph...needed with piss poor lapse rates Hartford screw hole eastern NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Hartford screw hole eastern NY? Looks like we will get missed lol...so shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Looks like we will get missed lol...so shocking Yet again? All season long, Upton counties plus Litchfield ftw.... Maybe we'll get some makeup love this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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