CT Rain Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Soundings from the 6z NAM and GFS have a really funky look. The GFS at least back this way is farily meh with just elevated CAPE and no tornadic potential (even though there is plenty of shear). NAM is more interesting but an "odd" look. Not sure how this will shake out but an interesting look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Soundings from the 6z NAM and GFS have a really funky look. The GFS at least back this way is farily meh with just elevated CAPE and no tornadic potential (even though there is plenty of shear). NAM is more interesting but an "odd" look. Not sure how this will shake out but an interesting look. That's what I've noticed the last two days. Not everything is lined up right. Low level shear is there, but need a bit of srfc instability. Also, I note mid level winds seem a bit whacky. You have a strong LLJ at 850 but then decrease to like 20-25 kts above that layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 That's what I've noticed the last two days. Not everything is lined up right. Low level shear is there, but need a bit of srfc instability. Also, I note mid level winds seem a bit whacky. You have a strong LLJ at 850 but then decrease to like 20-25 kts above that layer. Yeah it's an odd setup for sure... definitely worth watching if we can get some surface based instability or at least some better CAPE in the 0-3km layer. You want >100 j/kg below 3km to start getting interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Yeah it's an odd setup for sure... definitely worth watching if we can get some surface based instability or at least some better CAPE in the 0-3km layer. You want >100 j/kg below 3km to start getting interested. Yep...BTW thanks for the images from your blog on the Revere tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 That's what I've noticed the last two days. Not everything is lined up right. Low level shear is there, but need a bit of srfc instability. Also, I note mid level winds seem a bit whacky. You have a strong LLJ at 850 but then decrease to like 20-25 kts above that layer. Sultan signal I think on Wednesday too... that's higher confidence than any severe threat. It's been pretty dry at least IMBY so at least that will be a mitigating factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Yep...BTW thanks for the images from your blog on the Revere tornado. No worries at all. Did you get the Ekster hodograph? That is just wild.... like 600+ m2/s2 of 0-3km helicity right along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 No worries at all. Did you get the Ekster hodograph? That is just wild.... like 600+ m2/s2 of 0-3km helicity right along the coast. Yeah I sent him a message to see if he didn't mind. That's wild and just over 110J/KG of CAPE so good enough. Mostly MUCAPE but with parcel rising as low as 800' you'll find a way for something to reach the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Sultan signal I think on Wednesday too... that's higher confidence than any severe threat. It's been pretty dry at least IMBY so at least that will be a mitigating factor. They are having me take a close look at things at work b/c we have a field trip on Wednesday and at this time I think heavy rains/pockets of flash flooding is the concern over any severe threat. Just trying to gauge when the axis of heaviest rain moves in and out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 A little disagreement (although not much) with regards to the placement of the LLJ max...NAM has it just west of SNE 12z Wednesday while the GFS/Euro have it more over SNE. Either way though all 3 models are pointing to a period of very heavy rains Wednesday morning...I wouldn't bet either on much if any clearing. Atmosphere is quite juiced so showers should continue popping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 RPM drops 5-6 inches of rain over NW CT as low tracks right over C. Ct on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 RPM drops 5-6 inches of rain over NW CT as low tracks right over C. Ct on northcorrect to canal?, winter rules? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Congrats those with rain fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Congrats those with rain fetish.bone dry here lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 correct to canal?, winter rules?Still correcting nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Svr chances extremely low on Wed. Any shot would have to be AM with warm front activity but there will be nil instability. Heavy rain signal continues to be impressive...upslope rains FTW across parts of Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Still correcting nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Svr chances extremely low on Wed. Any shot would have to be AM with warm front activity but there will be nil instability. Heavy rain signal continues to be impressive...upslope rains FTW across parts of Berks Disagree. Near and east of low track which will end up NYC to concord all have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Disagree. Near and east of low track which will end up NYC to concord all have a shot. Wow, I'm surprised you disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Disagree. Near and east of low track which will end up NYC to concord all have a shot. There is going to be very minimal instability. We will be socked in with clouds and while there is a dry punch working in aloft it's very late and don't think it does much to erode clouds. The core of the LLJ also departs mid to late AM and after that shear tapers off and there is a quite a bit if remaining lift and SE flow into that equals lots of clouds and numerous showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 EC ensembles bring the low ENE from the CT shoreline to BOS. Locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 There is going to be very minimal instability. We will be socked in with clouds and while there is a dry punch working in aloft it's very late and don't think it does much to erode clouds. The core of the LLJ also departs mid to late AM and after that shear tapers off and there is a quite a bit if remaining lift and SE flow into that equals lots of clouds and numerous showers. How much did we have for Wolcott or Revere? Not much. Not going to be widespread, but these setups never are. There will be isolated spinners and wet micros scattered in the morning .. And then we'll have to see if we can get a line going like some of the models show in the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 EC ensembles bring the low ENE from the CT shoreline to BOS. Locked.I remember the last setup like this a dew weeks ago when they gave me to you 3-4 inches of rain . Didn't work very well. Tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 I remember the last setup like this a dew weeks ago when they gave me to you 3-4 inches of rain . Didn't work very well. Tossed I feel pretty good about that..or close to it. My guess is western CT to Dendrite is a lock for 3-5"+. Someone on that NW side of the low is getting destroyed by rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 I feel pretty good about that..or close to it. My guess is western CT to Dendrite is a lock for 3-5"+. Someone on that NW side of the low is getting destroyed by rain.Well if that's the case it goes near or over HFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 How much did we have for Wolcott or Revere? Not much. Not going to be widespread, but these setups never are. There will be isolated spinners and wet micros scattered in the morning .. And then we'll have to see if we can get a line going like some of the models show in the afternoon There was a much better presence of instability that day than what we looked to have Wednesday. There was also instability which worked in with the LLJ but that's not the casebhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Congrats those with rain fetish. I've been craving a nice flood recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 EC ensembles bring the low ENE from the CT shoreline to BOS. Locked. Too bad it's not January lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Too bad it's not January lol. Thank God it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 OT but love how Kev can always get under DTs skin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Looks wild tomorrow for many of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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