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T-Storms Part 2 : "North and West of the city!"


TalcottWx

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Cooling temps aloft, some instability, not a really well saturated atmosphere tomorrow in terms of pwat's. Same dry air could enhance wind threat. Could see some training of cells despite low pwat's due to slow storm motion. Wind fields look meh aloft.

 

Tomorrow looks like maybe some high wind gusts with small hail and potentially urban and localized flooding.I really like seeing that cold pool though. Between the presence of lift and that cold pool, won't be hard to get some nice storms tomorrow. Good lapse rates.

 

Looks to favor eastern SNE?

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Cooling temps aloft, some instability, not a really well saturated atmosphere tomorrow in terms of pwat's. Same dry air could enhance wind threat. Could see some training of cells despite low pwat's due to slow storm motion. Wind fields look meh aloft.

 

Tomorrow looks like maybe some high wind gusts with small hail and potentially urban and localized flooding.I really like seeing that cold pool though. Between the presence of lift and that cold pool, won't be hard to get some nice storms tomorrow. Good lapse rates.

 

Looks to favor eastern SNE?

imo tmrw could be an active day.  shortwave moves through in the afternoon, ~7 c/km 700-500mb lapse rates, ~10k freezing lvl. negatives are lack of low lvl moisture and weak shear .. but still conditions should be favorable for decent tstorms with hail being main threat? 

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I think that shower that just went over Stoughton is the first 50+ DBZ shower to go over my house all summer!  Too bad I was at work in Norwood when it happened.  Rained pretty good here for a bit and had some gusty winds, maybe up to 25mph. 

 

Take it back, no 50dbz here.  Yard is bone dry, gauge didn't even measure anything.  Not even sure how that's possible, even TWDR radar  looked very promising (too bad it skipped the frame when the "storm" was over the house) but come on, not even 0.04"?  Unbelievable.  Back to watering again tonight. 

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Pretty impressive s/w rotating through tomorrow and the NAM/GFS are both in agreement of the s/w traversing right over SNE and during peak heating hours.  The GFS is a bit more impressive tomorrow as it has higher sfc dews around but NW flow in the llvl's will work to keep dews into the lower 50's...mid-50's near the coast.  Obviously those are not ideal for convection but in cold pool setups these dews can be more than adequate.  

 

The NW flow in the llvls will also be a negative as it will vastly limit llvl convergence so we may not really see a great deal of widespread activity tomorrow, however, that s/w is pretty impressive with decent forcing and the region will be in the LFQ of a fairly strong MLJ.  

 

This is a setup though which could be excellent for SE MA and the Cape area...especially with some sea-breeze interactions going on...this may actually lead to some localized higher helicity values so could enhance hail threat across the Cape.  

 

Can't rule out some severe hail tomorrow (1'') especially across SE MA, however, with weaker vertical shear values in place it may be difficult to generate robust enough updrafts to get severe hail.  With this said though, given low freezing levels, it won't take much for storms to spit out small hail and this should be the #1 threat tomorrow.  

 

Inverted v soundings also suggest strong winds will be a threat as well, especially with any cores as they collapse and coincidentally, this is when the hazard for hail would be the highest.  

 

I would favor areas along and east of an HFD-ORH line for best shot at convection as that s/w looks to move pretty quickly, however, areas further west across MA/CT certainly have a shot but probably more early on.  

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