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T-Storms Part 2 : "North and West of the city!"


TalcottWx

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Such as issuing a tornado emergency/confirmed tornado statement/PDS tornado warning, no?

 

Correct, it's a tool we can use to add extra value to future warning statements.

 

As for today, it's always a good sign to see 65 dBZ over 20 kft out by SYR already this morning.

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Prime spot for the typical diurnal evolution of convection around here too. The big severe storms roll across the river from VT before they weaken heading into ME.

 

Here we always seem to end up in the weakening phase on most of these cells before re firing further to the east once they have past

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Thats where we'll be today

 

A wintry look to Santa's Village?

 

I expect the "North New Sharon Hailshield" to remain in effect.  In the past decade, there's been significant hail in the village center along Rt 2, in towns all around (often multiple occasions), the 8/30/07 storm that defoliated several thousand acres 6-8 miles to my south, etc.  Every half dozen or so years, we get a handful of tiny bouncers, but the real action (hail, wind, mongo downpours) avoids my particular neighborhood.  Not that I want my garden to get chopped up just when it's beginning to produce...

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Sort of surprised by the slight risk... overcast, dark, temps in the 60s.  Doesn't scream "severe day" to me.  I'll probably have to eat those words later.

 

Looks like a meso-low on radar near SLK.

 

attachicon.gifday1probotlk_1300_wind.gif

 

Pretty sure that this early cloud cover is going to keep things from being too widespread. Realistically western NH has maybe two hours of heating before storms arrive, and it's going to be tough to get a place like LEB much warmer than 70 with all this cloud cover.

 

Things could get interesting just on the east side of the cloud cover though. Low level lapse rates creeping above 8 C/km down in southern NH.

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