CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Nah the threat is more western areas this aftn. That's where they can recover after this crap. Small window, but potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 They have had probs with HRRR data feeds before where they get the previous day's data instead. Those maps for 18-21Z today look like yesterday's. Everything past the 7Z run on there looks funky. I noticed that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Will need that clearing in CNY to come in this afternoon and refire things around sunset I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Might have to do with upgrade to supercomputer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Heavy shower atm w/ a few rumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Lets see what happens, this sig always interests me in days of higher risk, seems a precursor to have these gravity wave clouds, maybe this is the spot to watch ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Today is not eastern SNE...tomorrow is their shot. Could see some activity tonight though but the afternoon is not for eastern SNE...western/central MA and most of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Lets see what happens, this sig always interests me in days of higher risk, seems a precursor to have these gravity wave clouds, maybe this is the spot to watch ??Are those gravity waves or cumulus streets? I thought gravity waves were mainly an anvil cloud formation/stratiform formation, but I could be wrong. Cumulus streets indicate strong moisture flow, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Perfectly wrong timed band coming through. 10-2pm isolation dimming ends the game for this sort of sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Today is not eastern SNE...tomorrow is isn't their shot. Could not see some activity tonight though but the afternoon is not for eastern SNE...western/central MA and most of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Are those gravity waves or cumulus streets? I thought gravity waves were mainly an anvil cloud formation/stratiform formation, but I could be wrong. Cumulus streets indicate strong moisture flow, I believe. would need a ground up pic, eastern folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Today is not eastern SNE...tomorrow is their shot. Could see some activity tonight though but the afternoon is not for eastern SNE...western/central MA and most of CT.clouds got in their way, HRRR seems to have had a good handle on this since 10:00 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 clouds got in their way, HRRR seems to have had a good handle on this since 10:00 last night. It isn't necessarily clouds...lack of lift. Source of lift today was a subtle a/w but it has been looking meh on models. Western SNE could get licky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Solid rainstorm here attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 It isn't necessarily clouds...lack of lift. Source of lift today was a subtle a/w but it has been looking meh on models. Western SNE could get lickynot many days that ended up severe were cloudy all day, if we break out things will pop but you also are correct. I think tomorrow is very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Nice little cell over head right now, waiting on the line that 's on the NY CT line to hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Radar and satellite not exactly encouraging. Line of marginal looking crapvection, no sunshine in sight. The ingredients were potentially there, but... Really bad timing on that incoming line. This is precisely the kind of stuff that EMLs are supposed to suppress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Radar and satellite not exactly encouraging. Line of marginal looking crapvection, no sunshine in sight. The ingredients were potentially there, but... Really bad timing on that incoming line. This is precisely the kind of stuff that EMLs are supposed to suppress.That's probably because the EML has essentially rotted away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Its whipping in southie actually. Trees swaying down the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 It isn't necessarily clouds...lack of lift. Source of lift today was a subtle a/w but it has been looking meh on models. Western SNE could get licky Completely disagree... You can't run this dog and pony show without CAPE -- particularly poisoned by saturated cool boundary layer at this point,.. Not sure why this wasn't assessed in the original convective outlooks for the day, but I am a, not in their SPC offices, and b, was busy over the last couple of days. Rank disappointment, though - period. Also, ...not that anyone asked, but I did peak yesterday at SPC's outlook and whenever you see an enhanced wording SW of your location, fear the CAPE reaper. Too often the situation precums and anvil/mid level junk spreads over, dims critical insolation/CAPE. Also, the convection its self mechanically chokes inflow for areas N-NE. That said, heh -- we did not even get that far! This is purely a totally and absolutely wrongly timed swatch of death debris. It depends on mlv sounding for later on, for western zones, and whether they can clear by 1pm to salvage a couple hours of heating underneath, whereby generating a viable column. But, my experience with these sorts a bend-over deals is that as the western edge of mid/upper level convective lag edges passed ... low clouds pounce! It's not good enough that it's f up the potential, it's got slap your face on the way out the door with something analogous to this: The 850mb flow inside the warm sector bubble really (as an index finger rule) needs to be SW, over 22kts to really scour out a cooled, wet boundary layer that is "trapped" in our unique topological induced quagmire. What' happens there is that the Berkshire's, Greens, and Whites, combined with oceanic boundary layer S-E team up to create a kind of bowl that fills up with choke. We get our convection at times, but we have more to over come than the other areas of the country. Built in limitations, like 'white men can't jump' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 That's probably because the EML has essentially rotted away... Yep, looks like. New England EMLs, there's never one around when you need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Completely disagree... You can't run this dog and pony show without CAPE -- particularly poisoned by saturated cool boundary layer at this point,.. Not sure why this wasn't assessed in the original convective outlooks for the day, but I am a, not in their SPC offices, and b, was busy over the last couple of days. Rank disappointment, though - period. Also, ...not that anyone asked, but I did peak yesterday at SPC's outlook and whenever you see an enhanced wording SW of your location, fear the CAPE reaper. Too often the situation precums and anvil/mid level junk spreads over, dims critical insolation/CAPE. Also, the convection its self mechanically chokes inflow for areas N-NE. That said, heh -- we did not even get that far! This is purely a totally and absolutely wrongly timed swatch of death debris. It depends on mlv sounding for later on, for western zones, and whether they can clear by 1pm to salvage a couple hours of heating underneath, whereby generating a viable column. But, my experience with these sorts a bend-over deals is that it's not good enough that it's f up the potential, it's got slap your face on the way out the door with something analogous to this: typicalsnebuttbang.jpg The 850mb flow inside the warm sector bubble really (as an index finger rule) needs to be SW, over 22kts to really scour out a cooled, wet boundary layer that is "trapped" in our unique mire of topology. What' happens there is that the Berkshire's, Greens, and Whites, combined with oceanic boundary layer S-E team up to create a kind of bowl that fills up with choke. We get our convection at times, but we have more to over come than the other areas of the country. Built in limitations, like 'white men can't jump' I was speaking in terms of eastern SNE...lack of trigger more culprit there. Clouds certainly are an issue right now across western sections...have to clear out by 1-1:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I was speaking in terms of eastern SNE...lack of trigger more culprit there. Clouds certainly are an issue right now across western sections...have to clear out by 1-1:30 We'll see, looking better behind the Springfield line. Sort of. Hopefully we can scour these 70's, otherwise game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Nice, looks like more than a couple rounds of heavy rain and thunder today. I know people said this is a western severe focus day. Agree stressing the severe wording of it, but this is a good day for eastern mass compared to some others. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Velocity showing gusty winds with that cell over near orh county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Velocity showing gusty winds with that cell over near orh countyBig on sat, too. Nice clearing coming, the threat may be able to regenerate if we can get widespread continuation of it. Give it time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Going to be two cells for bos area it looks like. One will slide above the city and its northern suburbs, another strengthening now to its south has a better trajectory for the city proper. Someone gets light to mod rain in between. Lightning on the increase, some broad rotation signifying the fact the storm is well established. Maybe some higher wind gusts and frequent lightning. main hurrah for the east now. Further west, I'm thinking kinda meh on the regeneration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Lots of distant thunder emanating from the cell moving toward Marlborough. This day is starting to remind me of June, '87. I've told this story a dozen times ... to paraphrase, we warm-sector-wedged around 1:30pm with the boundary lifting to SE NH, and the region soared into the 80s with DPs rising to 72 after a morning in the mid 60s with thunder and rains ... elevated convection along the displacing warm boundary. Toward evening, a small cluster of cells developed over the Mohawk Trail and roared ESE down Rt 2 during the evening hours. One of the most spectacular severe events of my life outside of a tornado transpired. It came through in two distinct pulses: the first was dry gust front up underneath an atypical shelf cloud. That pulse of wind, which gusted well over 50mph, went calm, and there was this really fascinating 10 minute interval of super bright, multi-pulse anvil to earth CG bolts with bone rattling loud thunder explosions. Then the west horizon started pulsing blinks, overlapping, pretty close to continuous ... as it neared a distant roar began to overtake the near constant roll of distant thunder and then the 2nd wave hit like a p-wave off a bomb blast. Trees just bent in half and hail up to golf ball sized and blinding rain was interceded with strobe lightning... When it was over ... immense timbre damage and power outages all over town. Couldn't hurt to look up stream where there may be some residual SRH later on bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Sharp edge to that convection, bits of sun and blue in NW Middlesex right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Big on sat, too. Nice clearing coming, the threat may be able to regenerate if we can get widespread continuation of it. Give it time. HRRR says its ovah, better luck tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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