TalcottWx Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Second half of summer initiated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 It needs a sequel tagline. "Summer Thunderstorms 2: The Weakening" "Summer Thunderstorms II: Stagnation" "SUMMERSTORMS DEUX: OMELET DU FROMAGE" Just some ideas. Hey, are there any thunderstorms on the horizon? I don't think so. Gonna be one Hell of a read in this thread for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Go south if you want severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Meh. Go south if you want severe. all this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Go south if you want severe. all this For you, south means York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Go south if you want severe. The Northeast isn't half bad for severe in early summer, but with our climatological peak in the first third of July, we're certainly on the downswing. Although anytime in July is pretty good, the probabilities start dropping off quickly in August. That's not just for SNE spinners, but also for severe across the country as a whole. Aside from those fluke severe outbreaks in the fall as lingering heat clashes with a strengthening and dropping jet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 For you, south means York. lol, I think i would pick somewhere further then that if i had the interest for it, Coastal plain fails here most of the time, If anything i would go North up here into Central Maine, That is where their is a hell of a lot more action away from the atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 lol, I think i would pick somewhere further then that if i had the interest for it, Coastal plain fails here most of the time, If anything i would go North up here into Central Maine, That is where their is a hell of a lot more action away from the atlantic I'm somewhat surprised the probabilities aren't higher a bit into Maine, but maybe that's because of a lack of reports from a less densely populated area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 lol, I think i would pick somewhere further then that if i had the interest for it, Coastal plain fails here most of the time, If anything i would go North up here into Central Maine, That is where their is a hell of a lot more action away from the atlantic I agree but for whatever reason it seems like the NH Seacoast up through far S Coastal ME has had it's share of really good (by that I mean decent) severe in the last decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I agree but for whatever reason it seems like the NH Seacoast up through far S Coastal ME has had it's share of really good (by that I mean decent) severe in the last decade or so. True, But if you looked at ocean temps down their, They are considerably warmer, As well as their not affected as much by downsloping like i am here, My best chances are storms traveling NE with the winds out of the west or SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I'm somewhat surprised the probabilities aren't higher a bit into Maine, but maybe that's because of a lack of reports from a less densely populated area... Well, That is a real possibility, Especially in Northern Maine, It is a vast area but not very populated, But marine influence plays a larger roll here, In those areas that are lightly highlighted, You have 4 or so of the largest cities in this state being Portland, Lewiston, Augusta and Bangor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 For you, south means York. For me, south means one town to my north. However, in recent years NE Aroostook seems to have caught more than its share. Going back farther, one township, T16R6 (the twp immediately east of the town of Eagle Lake) has had at least 3 blowdown events involving 1,000s of cords, thus 10,000s of trees. The 1986 event flattened 600 acres before flipping trees into Square Lake, in 2005 blowdowns covered about 100 acres on T16R6 plus half that much on the town to the south, in a string of flat patches stretching about 8 miles, and last July it was 200 acres along the north shore of Eagle Lake, plus a confirmed tornado just to the west in town, where it damaged several houses on Route 11. Last summer was quite active, with a multi-thousands cords blowdown near Chamberlain Lake/Baxter Park in July and another in the Oxbow area in September in addition to the tornado noted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 For me, south means one town to my north. However, in recent years NE Aroostook seems to have caught more than its share. Going back farther, one township, T16R6 (the twp immediately east of the town of Eagle Lake) has had at least 3 blowdown events involving 1,000s of cords, thus 10,000s of trees. The 1986 event flattened 600 acres before flipping trees into Square Lake, in 2005 blowdowns covered about 100 acres on T16R6 plus half that much on the town to the south, in a string of flat patches stretching about 8 miles, and last July it was 200 acres along the north shore of Eagle Lake, plus a confirmed tornado just to the west in town, where it damaged several houses on Route 11. Last summer was quite active, with a multi-thousands cords blowdown near Chamberlain Lake/Baxter Park in July and another in the Oxbow area in September in addition to the tornado noted above. Wish these blowdowns you speak of would happen down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I could use thousands of cords of wood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 This is a must see. Fascinating Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN 14m NEW VIDEO: Rare, up-close @GoPro video of violent, white suction vortices under EF4 #tornado in SD by @stormpics https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10152571266484169&l=6973131424933016763 … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Confirmed EF1 TOR 000NOUS41 KGYX 172024PNSGYXMEZ014-180030-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME424 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN SAINT ALBANS IN SOMERSET COUNTY MAINE...LOCATION...SAINT ALBANS IN SOMERSET COUNTY MAINEDATE...JULY 15 2014ESTIMATED TIME...652 TO 658 PMMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPHMAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...800 YARDSPATH LENGTH...2.75 MILESBEGINNING LAT/LON...44.91066N/-69.40746WENDING LAT/LON...44.92828N/-69.35709* FATALITIES...0* INJURIES...0* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION INNWS STORM DATA....SUMMARY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY ME HAS CONFIRMED A TORNADONEAR SAINT ALBANS IN SOMERSET COUNTY MAINE ON JULY 15 2014.DAMAGE FROM THE TORNADO WAS OBSERVED FROM HIGH STREET SOUTH OFINDIAN POND TO MELODY LANE. THE MOST INTENSE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVEDALONG CORINNA ROAD...HANSON DRIVE...AND WARNER LANE WHERE WINDSWERE ESTIMATED TO HAVE GUSTED BETWEEN 80 AND 90 MPH. THE TORNADOTOUCHED DOWN AT APPROXIMATELY 652 PM...THEN MOVED EAST NORTHEASTAT ABOUT 30 MPH. THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR ABOUT FIVEAND A HALF MINUTES AND TRAVELED ABOUT 2.75 MILES. THE MAXIMUMPATH WIDTH WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 800 YARDS.THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE ATWEATHER.GOV/GYX.FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOESINTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.$$JENSENIUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 NNE has been the Tornado Capitol if New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Friday doesn't look half bad for widespread convection. The GFS, in particular, holds back on convection for Thursday morning, potentially allowing a buildup of energy for the evening. Wind direction appears to be from the WNW, which, I believe, is far more favorable than the last event. Big questions remain, obvioulsly, and I'm still learning how to read models for convection, but it caught my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 NNE has been the Tornado Capitol if New England News this morning said the St.Albans tornado made it 114 confirmed in Maine since 1950, not quite 2 per year on avg (and recently it seems about twice that.) Nearly all have been EF0 or 1, and I'm not sure there's been anything as strong as EF3 during that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 BTW, a UK version of an EML event occurring over the last couple of days. They are called Spanish plume events and basically act in a similar fashion as EML events do. Convection is mostly elevated and driven by strong dynamics from a s/w trough. PVA, WAA ,etc. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2014&MONTH=07&FROM=1812&TO=1900&STNM=03354 http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2014&MONTH=07&FROM=1812&TO=1900&STNM=07110 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Hmmm.... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Hmmm.... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html No tornadoes, it looks like, but maybe squall line, as per looking at models. Got both eyes open now, only been lazily scanning the SPC for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Still looking like an isold SVR event, especially NW of BOX. Not too outstanding though, at least to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Still looking like an isold SVR event, especially NW of BOX. Not too outstanding though, at least to me. How's it looking for Central NH.?? I see we are in the slight risk and the timing seems good. Maybe the most severe day of the summer for C/NNE? or do you think not. Haven't had much this summer in my neck of the woods. One storm last week did some straight line wind damage in the town west of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 How's it looking for Central NH.?? I see we are in the slight risk and the timing seems good. Maybe the most severe day of the summer for C/NNE? or do you think not. Haven't had much this summer in my neck of the woods. One storm last week did some straight line wind damage in the town west of me. I think tomorrow looks decent for Lakes Region up through Central Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 From BTV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 How did Euro look? Similar to others in storms just in NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 How did Euro look? Similar to others in storms just in NNE? What are you talking about? Storms are progged for most areas... the discussion is where the best chance for severe would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 It seems getting the correct "timing" on storms this summer has been particularly difficult? Can't remember a summer when almost every occasion has been after midnight. At least for eastern areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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